Hernö Gin AB (HERNO-B) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Market cap 138M SEK (≈ $14.5M) · ISIN SE0017767494
What is Hernö Gin AB really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 87% above our fair value of kr 1.73.
As of Aug 30, 2026, the fair value of Hernö Gin AB is kr 1.73 per share against a price of kr 3.23, so the fair value sits 46% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −3.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 2.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 1.21 to kr 2.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
27‑month range kr 2.91 – kr 7.96 · fair‑value band kr 1.21 – kr 2.25 · the kr 3.23 price screens above the kr 1.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Hernö Gin AB (HERNO-B) currently trades at kr 3.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.73, implying the stock looks roughly 86.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of kr 1.87 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the kr 3.23 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 0.8200, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 30.8 (as of Jul 16, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 1.21 (bear case) to kr 2.25 (bull case); at kr 3.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −46%, HERNO-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly kr 0.0747 per share, which is 4.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (kr 1.87) versus Earnings-Based (kr 0.8200). Highest evidence: EPV (70).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Hernö Gin AB (publ) produces and sells gins in Sweden and internationally. The company offers various cocktails. It also operates bar and hotel under the Hernö Gin brand name. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Härnösand, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hernö Gin AB reported revenue of 47.4M SEK in FY2025 versus 37.1M SEK in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was 4.4M SEK in FY2025, compounding −16.8%/yr from FY2021.
HERNO-B screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 93 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,303 | ¥1,238 | −5% |
| Diageo plc DEO | $92.99 | $73.29 | −21% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥71.89 | ¥48.44 | −33% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥116.39 | ¥185.80 | +60% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €63.20 | €76.13 | +20% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥84.50 | ¥149.17 | +77% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $28.72 | $27.69 | −4% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,528 | ₹285.39 | −81% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4650 SGD | 0.7000 SGD | +51% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥39.59 | ¥27.82 | −30% |
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