Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Hero MotoCorp Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹1,916 – ₹6,229 · fair‑value band ₹3,168 – ₹6,830 · the ₹5,419 price screens above the ₹4,225 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
Hero MotoCorp Limited primarily engages in the manufacture and sale of motorised two wheelers in India, Asia, Central and Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. The company offers motorcycles and scooters, as well as electric scooters. It provides engines, parts, and accessories, as well as non-banking financial and other related services.
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Hero MotoCorp Limited primarily engages in the manufacture and sale of motorised two wheelers in India, Asia, Central and Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. The company offers motorcycles and scooters, as well as electric scooters. It provides engines, parts, and accessories, as well as non-banking financial and other related services. The company is also involved in merchandise business. The company was formerly known as Hero Honda Motors Ltd. and changed its name to Hero MotoCorp Limited in July 2011. Hero MotoCorp Limited was incorporated in 1984 and is based in New Delhi, India.
Stock analysis
Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO) currently trades at ₹5,419, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹4,225, implying the stock looks roughly 28.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹5,811 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹5,419 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹723.64, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹3,168 (bear) to ₹6,830 (bull), the price of ₹5,419 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hero MotoCorp Limited reported revenue of ₹474B in FY2026 versus ₹290B in FY2022, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹57.4B in FY2026, compounding +25.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹1.1T (≈ $11.4B) · P/E ratio 18.9 · P/S ratio 2.29 · EPS (TTM) ₹286.72 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 12.1% · Return on equity 28.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −22%, HEROMOTOCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹3,168Fair Value ₹4,225Bull ₹6,830
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹53.18 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+26.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15% vs 6%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 13%
2026 sits 54% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 111 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−20% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Return on assets13% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth30% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
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Is Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹4,225 versus a price of ₹5,419, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HEROMOTOCO?
Our model-based fair value for Hero MotoCorp Limited is ₹4,225 (as of Sep 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹5,419.
What is the quality score of HEROMOTOCO?
Hero MotoCorp Limited has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹4,225 (as of Sep 19, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹3,168, optimistic scenario ₹6,830. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hero MotoCorp Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹4,225, about −22% upside versus a price of ₹5,419 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹3,168, optimistic scenario ₹6,830. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
Hero MotoCorp Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹474B (latest available figure, as of Sep 19, 2026).
Does Hero MotoCorp Limited pay a dividend?
Hero MotoCorp Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 19, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hero MotoCorp Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +2.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.3 % per year. As of Sep 19, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HEROMOTOCO use?
Our models discount Hero MotoCorp Limited at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hero MotoCorp Limited that is +2.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hero MotoCorp Limited grew +9.3 % a year. The price currently implies +2.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hero MotoCorp Limited (+2.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.05 %: that much free cash flow Hero MotoCorp Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hero MotoCorp Limited it is ₹4,225 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026), against a price of ₹5,419. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hero MotoCorp Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 19, 2026, HEROMOTOCO trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹5,419, fair value ₹4,225, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HEROMOTOCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹5,419); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹4,225). For Hero MotoCorp Limited the two are ₹1,194 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hero MotoCorp Limited worth?
The market values Hero MotoCorp Limited at about ₹1.1T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 19, 2026). Per share that is ₹5,419; our models calculate a fair value of ₹4,225 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HEROMOTOCO?
Our models span a range for Hero MotoCorp Limited: cautious scenario ₹3,168, base ₹4,225, optimistic ₹6,830 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026, price ₹5,419). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HEROMOTOCO?
Hero MotoCorp Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 (as of Sep 19, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹4,225 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.6, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 14.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hero MotoCorp Limited (as of Sep 19, 2026): return on equity 28.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HEROMOTOCO from its 52-week high?
Hero MotoCorp Limited trades at ₹5,419, about 14% below its 52-week high of ₹6,266 and 34% above the low of ₹4,049 (as of Sep 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹4,225 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hero MotoCorp Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hero MotoCorp Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 19, 2026: price ₹5,419, calculated fair value ₹4,225 (−22%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HEROMOTOCO calculated?
We run Hero MotoCorp Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹4,225, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hero MotoCorp Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was ₹5,419. Our model-based fair value is ₹4,225, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hero MotoCorp Limited right now?
A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. A fairly wide model range (₹3,168 to ₹6,830) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO) come from?
Earnings per share at Hero MotoCorp Limited grew +4.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.6 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hero MotoCorp Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
The market capitalisation of Hero MotoCorp Limited is ₹1.1T (≈ $11.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hero MotoCorp Limited is 2.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
Earnings per share at Hero MotoCorp Limited are ₹286.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
The dividend yield of Hero MotoCorp Limited is 3.2% (payout 61.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
The net margin of Hero MotoCorp Limited is 12.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hero MotoCorp Limited is 28.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hero MotoCorp Limited is 16.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
The operating margin of Hero MotoCorp Limited is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
Revenue at Hero MotoCorp Limited is growing +30.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)?
Earnings per share at Hero MotoCorp Limited are growing +25.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO) carry?
The net debt of Hero MotoCorp Limited is ₹119M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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