Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hillgrove Resources Ltd stock A$0.20, price A$1.16, upside -82.8%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Hillgrove Resources Limited engages in the operation, exploration, and development of mineral properties in Australia. It primarily explores for copper, gold, and silver deposits. The company's project is the Kanmantoo Copper mine located approximately 55 kilometres from Adelaide, South Australia.
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Hillgrove Resources Limited was incorporated in 1952 and is headquartered in Unley, Australia.
Stock analysis
Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO) currently trades at A$1.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2000, 82.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$0.4100 per share, and 2 of the 14 models we run sit above the A$1.16 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$0.2000, and 12 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.1900 (bear) to A$0.2200 (bull), the price of A$1.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hillgrove Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$168M in FY2025 versus A$20.2M in FY2020, a compound +52.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$92.0K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$275M (≈ $194M) Micro · P/E ratio 1.0 · EPS (TTM) A$1.22 · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity 20.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.9% · Operating margin 17.1% · Revenue (TTM) A$203M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 149% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −83%, HGO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (A$0.0100 to A$1.22). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
BearA$0.1900Fair Value A$0.2000BullA$0.2200
Price A$1.16 · Upside -82.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$1.02 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+49.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+52.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.9% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
Compare Hillgrove Resources Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 57 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−82.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets0.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)9.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)17.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)44.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)1.0× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.17× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)81· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.2000 versus a price of A$1.16, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HGO?
Our model-based fair value for Hillgrove Resources Ltd is A$0.2000 (as of Oct 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.16.
What is the quality score of HGO?
Hillgrove Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.2000 (as of Oct 30, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1900, optimistic scenario A$0.2200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hillgrove Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.2000, about −83% upside versus a price of A$1.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1900, optimistic scenario A$0.2200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
Hillgrove Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$203M (latest available figure, as of Oct 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hillgrove Resources Ltd it is A$0.2000 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026), against a price of A$1.16. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hillgrove Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 30, 2026, HGO trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.16, fair value A$0.2000, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HGO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.2000). For Hillgrove Resources Ltd the two are A$0.9600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hillgrove Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Hillgrove Resources Ltd at about A$275M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 30, 2026). Per share that is A$1.16; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.2000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HGO?
Our models span a range for Hillgrove Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1900, base A$0.2000, optimistic A$0.2200 per share (as of Oct 30, 2026, price A$1.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HGO?
Hillgrove Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.0 (as of Oct 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.2000 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2.
What is the PEG ratio of HGO?
The PEG ratio of Hillgrove Resources Ltd is 0.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 30, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hillgrove Resources Ltd (as of Oct 30, 2026): return on equity 20.4%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HGO from its 52-week high?
Hillgrove Resources Ltd trades at A$1.16, about 8% below its 52-week high of A$1.27 and 149% above the low of A$0.4650 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.2000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hillgrove Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hillgrove Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 30, 2026: price A$1.16, calculated fair value A$0.2000 (−83%), Quality Score 51/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HGO calculated?
We run Hillgrove Resources Ltd through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.2000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Hillgrove Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was A$1.16. Our model-based fair value is A$0.2000, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hillgrove Resources Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.2200). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Hillgrove Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
The market capitalisation of Hillgrove Resources Ltd is A$275M (≈ $194M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
Earnings per share at Hillgrove Resources Ltd are A$1.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
The net margin of Hillgrove Resources Ltd is 0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hillgrove Resources Ltd is 20.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hillgrove Resources Ltd is −7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
The operating margin of Hillgrove Resources Ltd is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
Revenue at Hillgrove Resources Ltd is growing +44.4% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO)?
Earnings per share at Hillgrove Resources Ltd are growing +13.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO) generate?
The free cash flow of Hillgrove Resources Ltd is −A$19.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hillgrove Resources Ltd (HGO) hold?
Hillgrove Resources Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$16.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 30, 2026