Hillgrove Resources Limited (HGO) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$219M
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price +3.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 47% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0411). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0290 – A$0.0940 · fair‑value band A$0.0306 – A$0.0411 · the A$0.0640 price screens above the A$0.0340 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Hillgrove Resources Limited (HGO) currently trades at A$0.0640, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0340, implying the stock looks roughly 46.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hillgrove Resources Limited generated revenue of A$168M at a net margin of 0.1%. Revenue grew 19.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$16.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0306 (bear case) to A$0.0411 (bull case); at A$0.0640, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 113% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -47%, HGO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$0.0300) versus Earnings-Based (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hillgrove Resources Limited engages in the operation, exploration, and development of mineral properties in Australia. It primarily explores for copper, gold, and silver deposits. The company's project is the Kanmantoo Copper mine located approximately 55 kilometres from Adelaide, South Australia.
Full company description
Hillgrove Resources Limited engages in the operation, exploration, and development of mineral properties in Australia. It primarily explores for copper, gold, and silver deposits. The company's project is the Kanmantoo Copper mine located approximately 55 kilometres from Adelaide, South Australia. Hillgrove Resources Limited was incorporated in 1952 and is headquartered in Unley, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hillgrove Resources Limited reported revenue of A$168M in FY2025 versus A$20.2M in FY2020, a compound +52.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$92.0K in FY2025.
HGO screens 47% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Peer Group
Copper · 59 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $175.66 | $86.74 | -51% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $61.52 | $22.81 | -63% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$34.86 | C$18.67 | -46% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥39.03 | ¥35.19 | -10% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.79 | ¥3.06 | -47% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$28.58 | C$21.79 | -24% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥16.66 | ¥7.00 | -58% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CSC | A$13.06 | A$7.28 | -44% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥14.32 | ¥9.12 | -36% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$14.75 | HK$1.76 | -88% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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