Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Hilton Metal Forging Limited ₹14.06, price ₹16.86, upside -16.6%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹11.05 – ₹172.40 · fair‑value band ₹10.55 – ₹17.58 · the ₹16.86 price screens above the ₹14.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Hilton Metal Forging Limited manufactures and sells iron and steel forgings for railways, oil and gas, refinery, and pharmaceutical industries in India. The company offers stainless steel, high pressure, threaded, blind, weld neck, and socket welded flanges; railway wheel forgings; and forged and hydraulic fittings.
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Hilton Metal Forging Limited manufactures and sells iron and steel forgings for railways, oil and gas, refinery, and pharmaceutical industries in India. The company offers stainless steel, high pressure, threaded, blind, weld neck, and socket welded flanges; railway wheel forgings; and forged and hydraulic fittings. It also provides engineered parts; crank shafts; body bonnets; stub ends; forged components; top deck covers; and Christmas tree components. The company also exports its products. Hilton Metal Forging Limited was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON) currently trades at ₹16.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹14.06, 16.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹54.62 per share, and 7 of the 15 models we run sit above the ₹16.86 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ₹10.15, and 8 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹10.55 (bear) to ₹17.58 (bull), the price of ₹16.86 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hilton Metal Forging Limited reported revenue of ₹2.3B in FY2026 versus ₹838M in FY2022, a compound +28.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹34.5M in FY2026, compounding +18.3%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap ₹1.2B (≈ $12.0M) · P/E ratio 17.9 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) ₹0.9400 · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 2.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% · Operating margin 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −57% fair-value upside, at −17%, HILTON screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹10.55Fair Value ₹14.06Bull ₹17.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹0.4764 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+41.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.1% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.4% vs 6.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−42% → 4%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 252 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−16.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hilton Metal Forging Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HILTON
Frequently asked questions
Is Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹14.06 versus a price of ₹16.86, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HILTON?
Our model-based fair value for Hilton Metal Forging Limited is ₹14.06 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹16.86.
What is the quality score of HILTON?
Hilton Metal Forging Limited has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹14.06 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹10.55, optimistic scenario ₹17.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hilton Metal Forging Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹14.06, about −17% upside versus a price of ₹16.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹10.55, optimistic scenario ₹17.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
Hilton Metal Forging Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹2.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hilton Metal Forging Limited it is ₹14.06 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹16.86. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hilton Metal Forging Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, HILTON trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹16.86, fair value ₹14.06, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HILTON?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹16.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹14.06). For Hilton Metal Forging Limited the two are ₹2.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hilton Metal Forging Limited worth?
The market values Hilton Metal Forging Limited at about ₹1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹16.86; our models calculate a fair value of ₹14.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HILTON?
Our models span a range for Hilton Metal Forging Limited: cautious scenario ₹10.55, base ₹14.06, optimistic ₹17.58 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹16.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HILTON?
Hilton Metal Forging Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹14.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hilton Metal Forging Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 2.6%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HILTON from its 52-week high?
Hilton Metal Forging Limited trades at ₹16.86, about 64% below its 52-week high of ₹47.23 and 17% above the low of ₹14.38 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹14.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hilton Metal Forging Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hilton Metal Forging Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹16.86, calculated fair value ₹14.06 (−17%), Quality Score 29/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HILTON calculated?
We run Hilton Metal Forging Limited through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹14.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hilton Metal Forging Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹16.86. Our model-based fair value is ₹14.06, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hilton Metal Forging Limited right now?
Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Hilton Metal Forging Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
The market capitalisation of Hilton Metal Forging Limited is ₹1.2B (≈ $12.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hilton Metal Forging Limited is 0.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
Earnings per share at Hilton Metal Forging Limited are ₹0.9400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
The net margin of Hilton Metal Forging Limited is 1.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hilton Metal Forging Limited is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hilton Metal Forging Limited is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
The operating margin of Hilton Metal Forging Limited is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
Revenue at Hilton Metal Forging Limited is growing +12.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON)?
Earnings per share at Hilton Metal Forging Limited are growing −97.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON) generate?
The free cash flow of Hilton Metal Forging Limited is −₹208M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hilton Metal Forging Limited (HILTON) carry?
The net debt of Hilton Metal Forging Limited is ₹430M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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