AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of AMTD Digital Inc. $0.95, price $1.70, upside -44.0%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
50‑month range $1.27 – $1,679 · fair‑value band $0.9520 – $1.45 · the $1.70 price screens above the $0.9520 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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AMTD Digital Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides digital solutions; media and entertainment services; and hotel operations, hospitality, and very important person (VIP) services in China, Hong Kong, Europe, the Americas and Southeast Asia.
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AMTD Digital Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides digital solutions; media and entertainment services; and hotel operations, hospitality, and very important person (VIP) services in China, Hong Kong, Europe, the Americas and Southeast Asia. The company offers cross-market and intelligent digital solutions services for retail and corporate clients; and insurance brokerage services. It also provides fashion, arts, and luxury media advertising and marketing services; print and digital advertising campaigns and marketing services; and sells printed and digital publications, as well as operates in the movie production sector. In addition, the company offers customer-centric VIP services, such as hotels and serviced apartments, food and beverages, and club membership services. Further, it holds whole building properties. Digital Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) currently trades at $1.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.9520, implying the stock looks roughly 78.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $3.68 per share, and 5 of the 14 models we run sit above the $1.70 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.5100, and 9 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $0.9520 (bear) to $1.45 (bull), the price of $1.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
AMTD Digital Inc. reported revenue of $23.4M in FY2025 versus $196M in FY2021, a compound −41.2%/yr. Reported net income was $44.4M in FY2025, compounding −29.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $534M · P/E ratio 9.4 · P/S ratio 17.9 · EPS (TTM) $0.1800 · Net margin 40.2% · Return on equity 25.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% · Operating margin 60.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −44%, HKD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.9520Fair Value $0.9520Bull $1.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1800 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−53.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−50.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−27.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−27.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.86% → 52%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 710 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−44% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)40% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)60% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth341% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity9.43× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)9.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B28.93× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)3.93× · Pricier than median
P/FCF1,016.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 39
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AMTD Digital Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HKD
Frequently asked questions
Is AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.9520 versus a price of $1.70, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HKD?
Our model-based fair value for AMTD Digital Inc. is $0.9520 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.70.
What is the quality score of HKD?
AMTD Digital Inc. has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.9520 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9520, optimistic scenario $1.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AMTD Digital Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.9520, about −44% upside versus a price of $1.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.9520, optimistic scenario $1.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AMTD Digital Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -32.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HKD use?
Our models discount AMTD Digital Inc. at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 2.00, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AMTD Digital Inc. that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AMTD Digital Inc. grew -32.4 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AMTD Digital Inc. (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.12 %: that much free cash flow AMTD Digital Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AMTD Digital Inc. it is $0.9520 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.70. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AMTD Digital Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HKD trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.70, fair value $0.9520, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HKD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.9520). For AMTD Digital Inc. the two are $0.7480 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AMTD Digital Inc. worth?
The market values AMTD Digital Inc. at about $534M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.70; our models calculate a fair value of $0.9520 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HKD?
Our models span a range for AMTD Digital Inc.: cautious scenario $0.9520, base $0.9520, optimistic $1.45 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HKD?
AMTD Digital Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.9520 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 28.9, P/S 3.9, EV/EBITDA 7.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
Balance-sheet figures for AMTD Digital Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 25.4%, debt of 9.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HKD from its 52-week high?
AMTD Digital Inc. trades at $1.70, about 42% below its 52-week high of $2.95 and 34% above the low of $1.27 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.9520 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AMTD Digital Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AMTD Digital Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.70, calculated fair value $0.9520 (−44%), Quality Score 40/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HKD calculated?
We run AMTD Digital Inc. through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.9520, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AMTD Digital Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.70. Our model-based fair value is $0.9520, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AMTD Digital Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of AMTD Digital Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
The market capitalisation of AMTD Digital Inc. is $534M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AMTD Digital Inc. is 17.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
Earnings per share at AMTD Digital Inc. are $0.1800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
The net margin of AMTD Digital Inc. is 40.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AMTD Digital Inc. is 25.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AMTD Digital Inc. is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
The operating margin of AMTD Digital Inc. is 60.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
Revenue at AMTD Digital Inc. is growing +341% versus a year earlier (3y avg −50.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD)?
Earnings per share at AMTD Digital Inc. are growing +81.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) carry?
The net debt of AMTD Digital Inc. is $229M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026