AMTD Digital Inc (HKD) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $534M

Below-average quality, and screening another 70% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The model range is unusually wide ($0.3060 to $1.14). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

49‑month range $1.27 – $1,679 · fair‑value band $0.3060 – $1.14 · the $1.70 price screens above the $0.5185 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

AMTD Digital Inc (HKD) currently trades at $1.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5185, implying the stock looks roughly 69.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, AMTD Digital Inc generated revenue of $136M at a net margin of 40.2%. It earns a return on equity of 25.4%. Net debt stands at $229M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 9.4. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.3060 (bear case) to $1.14 (bull case); at $1.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -70%, HKD screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($2.66) versus Asset-Based ($0.0500). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

AMTD Digital Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides digital solutions; media and entertainment services; and hotel operations, hospitality, and very important person (VIP) services in China, Hong Kong, Europe, the Americas and Southeast Asia.

Full company description

AMTD Digital Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides digital solutions; media and entertainment services; and hotel operations, hospitality, and very important person (VIP) services in China, Hong Kong, Europe, the Americas and Southeast Asia. The company offers cross-market and intelligent digital solutions services for retail and corporate clients; and insurance brokerage services. It also provides fashion, arts, and luxury media advertising and marketing services; print and digital advertising campaigns and marketing services; and sells printed and digital publications, as well as operates in the movie production sector. In addition, the company offers customer-centric VIP services, such as hotels and serviced apartments, food and beverages, and club membership services. Further, it holds whole building properties. Digital Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

AMTD Digital Inc reported revenue of $23.4M in FY2025 versus $196M in FY2021, a compound −41.2%/yr. Reported net income was $44.4M in FY2025, compounding −29.3%/yr from FY2021.

HKD screens 70% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

Peer Group

Software - Application · 709 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.