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Hensoldt AG (HNSDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Hensoldt AG $48.20, price $105, upside -54.2%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Hensoldt AG
HNSDF · USWeakest SetupQuality growthStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $48.20 · Strongly overvalued (−54.2%)
!Quality 41/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +15.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.5% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 35/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $15.95 – $130.82 · fair‑value band $29.56 – $66.82 · the $105.19 price screens above the $48.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Hensoldt AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides sensor solutions for defense and security applications worldwide. It operates through Sensors and Optronics segments.
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Hensoldt AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides sensor solutions for defense and security applications worldwide. It operates through Sensors and Optronics segments. It offers mobile and stationary radar, and identification friend or foe systems used for surveillance, reconnaissance, civil air traffic control, and air defense; systems for secure data connections for air, sea and land platforms; electronic systems for the acquisition and evaluation of radar and radio signals and jammers; defensive cyber solutions; and situational awareness systems, mission computers, and flight data recorders. The company also provides electronic self-protection systems that integrate missile, laser and radar warning sensors; customer support and service activities; simulation solutions, training courses and special services, and components and solutions for space-based sensors; and solutions and services for secure digitalization and networking in military and civil dimensions. In addition, it offers telescopic sights, visors, laser rangefinders, night vision devices and thermal imaging cameras; devices for surveillance and target acquisition for armored vehicles; submarine periscopes, optronic mast systems, and other electro-optical systems for use at sea; and mobile and stationary surveillance solutions; and special equipment for industrial and space applications. Further, the company provides friend-or-foe detection systems, radar for ship and land applications, cryptographic devices, and tactical point-to-point communication systems; delivery, installation and maintenance of air traffic control radar, weather radar, navigation, voice communications, and runway lighting systems for military and civil airports; and software solutions for military and non-military use. Hensoldt AG was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Taufkirchen, Germany.
Stock analysis
Hensoldt AG (HNSDF) currently trades at $105.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.20, 54.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $42.87 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $105.19 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.47, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $29.56 (bear) to $66.82 (bull), the price of $105.19 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hensoldt AG reported revenue of €2.5B in FY2025 versus €1.5B in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was €89.0M in FY2025, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $12.1B · P/E ratio 104.1 · P/S ratio 3.78 · EPS (TTM) $1.01 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −54%, HNSDF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $29.56
Fair Value $48.20
Bull $66.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3478 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$37.99
$69.54
$122.75
77
Growth DCF
$37.53
$65.94
$111.89
76
Residual Income
$8.19
$8.90
$10.22
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$37.99
$69.54
$122.75
77
Owner Earnings
$16.01
$30.32
$54.46
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$25.20
$42.87
$66.38
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$35.79
$64.82
$101.19
73
5Y P/E Exit
$19.52
$31.08
$43.83
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$28.58
$46.69
$73.64
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$36.16
$62.45
$102.28
66
10Y P/E Exit
$25.59
$38.21
$55.09
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$5.90
$27.91
$38.39
64
Lynch FV
$7.41
$10.59
$13.76
61
PEG = 1.0
$7.41
$10.59
$13.76
57
EPV
$15.47
$18.27
$20.68
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$4.96
$9.89
$14.98
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$4.96
$8.55
$10.44
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$13.66
$18.21
$22.76
63
P/S Multiple
$11.06
$14.74
$18.43
58
P/B Multiple
$11.06
$14.74
$18.43
55
EV/EBIT
$27.69
$37.67
$47.65
66
EV/EBITDA
$37.84
$51.21
$64.57
67
EV/Revenue
$19.12
$28.28
$37.44
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$4.83
$6.47
$9.66
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$37.53
$65.94
$111.89
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$25.20
$42.72
$65.54
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$8.19
$8.90
$10.22
76
ROIC Compounder
$17.56
$24.37
$33.38
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$11.68
$16.69
$21.69
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
41/100
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Profitability
27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
25
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
65
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 10%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.4% a year for the price and +11.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+12.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+16.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+14.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+13.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+11.2%
HNSDF screens overvalued: fair value 54% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Hensoldt AG (HAGHY) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Orders and Strategic Expansion ...
- We Like The Quality Of Hensoldt's (ETR:HAG) Earnings
- Hensoldt AG (ETR:HAG) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
- Investors Can Find Comfort In Hensoldt's (ETR:HAG) Earnings Quality
Compare Hensoldt AG with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Weapons
Defense
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Frequently asked questions
Is Hensoldt AG (HNSDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.20 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $105.19, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HNSDF?
Our model-based fair value for Hensoldt AG is $48.20 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $105.19.
What is the quality score of HNSDF?
Hensoldt AG has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.20 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.56, optimistic scenario $66.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hensoldt AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.20, about −54% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $105.19 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $29.56, optimistic scenario $66.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
Hensoldt AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Hensoldt AG pay a dividend?
Hensoldt AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hensoldt AG would have to grow free cash flow by +21.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HNSDF use?
Our models discount Hensoldt AG at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hensoldt AG that is +21.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hensoldt AG (HNSDF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hensoldt AG grew +15.3 % a year. The price currently implies +21.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hensoldt AG (+21.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.29 %: that much free cash flow Hensoldt AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hensoldt AG it is $48.20 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $105.19. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hensoldt AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HNSDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $105.19, fair value $48.20, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HNSDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($105.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.20). For Hensoldt AG the two are $56.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hensoldt AG worth?
The market values Hensoldt AG at about $12.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $105.19; our models calculate a fair value of $48.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HNSDF?
Our models span a range for Hensoldt AG: cautious scenario $29.56, base $48.20, optimistic $66.82 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $105.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is HNSDF from its 52-week high?
Hensoldt AG trades at $105.19, about 20% below its 52-week high of $130.82 and 37% above the low of $77.01 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hensoldt AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hensoldt AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $105.19, calculated fair value $48.20 (−54%), Quality Score 41/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HNSDF calculated?
We run Hensoldt AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $48.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hensoldt AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $105.19. Our model-based fair value is $48.20, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hensoldt AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($66.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($29.56 to $66.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hensoldt AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
The market capitalisation of Hensoldt AG is $12.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Hensoldt AG is 104.1. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hensoldt AG is 3.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
Earnings per share at Hensoldt AG are $1.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 104.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
The dividend yield of Hensoldt AG is 0.5% (payout 54.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
The net margin of Hensoldt AG is 3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hensoldt AG is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hensoldt AG is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
The operating margin of Hensoldt AG is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
Revenue at Hensoldt AG is growing +25.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hensoldt AG (HNSDF)?
Earnings per share at Hensoldt AG are growing −22.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hensoldt AG (HNSDF) carry?
The net debt of Hensoldt AG is €701M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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