Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Herc Holdings Inc $0.54, price $137, upside -99.6%, quality 21 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $0.5355 · Strongly overvalued (−100%)
!Quality 21/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +19.7 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -0.1% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 0.0%
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·2.04% dividend yield
!Trails peers(3/13)
!Narrow moat31/100
!Insider activity40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $80.18 – $231.65 · fair‑value band $0.3995 – $0.6715 · the $137.23 price screens above the $0.5355 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Herc Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment.
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Herc Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment. The company offers ProSolutions, an industry specific solution-based services, which include power generation, climate control, remediation and restoration, pump, trench shoring, and studio and production equipment; and ProContractor professional grade tools. In addition, it provides various services, including repair, maintenance, equipment management, and safety training; and equipment re-rental and on-site support services, as well as ancillary services, such as equipment transport, rental protection, cleaning, refueling, and labor. Further, the company sells used equipment and contractor supplies, such as construction consumables, tools, small equipment, and safety supplies. It serves non-residential and residential construction, specialty trade, restoration, remediation and environment, and facility maintenance contractors; industrial manufacturing industries, including refineries and petrochemical, automotive and aerospace, power, metals and mining, agriculture, pulp, paper and wood, and food and beverage industries; infrastructure and government sectors; and commercial facilities, commercial warehousing, education, healthcare, data centers, hospitality, retail, special event management and non-account customers. The company sells its products through its sales team and industry catalogs, as well as through participation and sponsorship of industry events, trade shows, and Internet. Herc Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 1965 and is based in Bonita Springs, Florida.
Stock analysis
Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) currently trades at $137.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5355, implying the stock looks roughly 25,541.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $0.6300 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the $137.23 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.2500, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.3995 (bear) to $0.6715 (bull), the price of $137.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Herc Holdings Inc reported revenue of $4.4B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound +20.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0M in FY2025, compounding −74.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.9B · P/S ratio 1.06 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0600 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity −0.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6% · Operating margin 9.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −100%, HRI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.2500 to $441.65). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.3995Fair Value $0.5355Bull $0.6715
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.1% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+18.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−58% vs −38%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 15%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 91 stocks
P/B2.52× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.06× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA14.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.06× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 63
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 58
DIVIDEND (yield)41· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5355 versus a price of $137.23, about −100% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HRI?
Our model-based fair value for Herc Holdings Inc is $0.5355 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $137.23.
What is the quality score of HRI?
Herc Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5355 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3995, optimistic scenario $0.6715. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Herc Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5355, about −100% upside versus a price of $137.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3995, optimistic scenario $0.6715. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
Herc Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Herc Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Herc Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Herc Holdings Inc it is $0.5355 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $137.23. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Herc Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HRI trades above its calculated fair value: price $137.23, fair value $0.5355, a gap of about −100% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HRI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($137.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5355). For Herc Holdings Inc the two are $136.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Herc Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Herc Holdings Inc at about $4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $137.23; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5355 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HRI?
Our models span a range for Herc Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $0.3995, base $0.5355, optimistic $0.6715 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $137.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HRI?
The PEG ratio of Herc Holdings Inc is 0.06 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Herc Holdings Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −0.3%, debt of 4.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HRI from its 52-week high?
Herc Holdings Inc trades at $137.23, about 23% below its 52-week high of $179.36 and 52% above the low of $90.58 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5355 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Herc Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Herc Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $137.23, calculated fair value $0.5355 (−100%), Quality Score 21/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HRI calculated?
We run Herc Holdings Inc through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.5355, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Herc Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $137.23. Our model-based fair value is $0.5355, about −100% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Herc Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6715). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) come from?
Earnings per share at Herc Holdings Inc grew +12.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin +8.3 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Herc Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
The market capitalisation of Herc Holdings Inc is $4.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Herc Holdings Inc is 1.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
Earnings per share at Herc Holdings Inc are $−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
The dividend yield of Herc Holdings Inc is 2.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
The net margin of Herc Holdings Inc is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Herc Holdings Inc is −0.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Herc Holdings Inc is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
The operating margin of Herc Holdings Inc is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
Revenue at Herc Holdings Inc is growing +32.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Herc Holdings Inc (HRI)?
Earnings per share at Herc Holdings Inc are growing −79.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) generate?
The free cash flow of Herc Holdings Inc is −$135M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) carry?
The net debt of Herc Holdings Inc is $11.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026