HubSpot, Inc (HUBS) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $10.7B
HubSpot, Inc
HUBS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $26.54 to $26.56 (+0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −1.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($26.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $170.28 – $852.08 · the $202.43 price screens above the $26.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
HubSpot, Inc (HUBS) currently trades at $202.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.56, implying the stock looks roughly 86.9% overvalued today. We read business quality at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, HubSpot, Inc generated revenue of $3.3B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 23.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $397M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -87%, HUBS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($126.31) versus Dividend Discount ($3.62). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 12
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HubSpot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) platform for businesses in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
Full company description
HubSpot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) platform for businesses in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company's CRM platform includes Marketing Hub, a toolset for marketing automation and email, social media, SEO, AEO, and reporting and analytics; Sales Hub offers email templates and tracking, conversations and live chat, meeting and call scheduling, lead and website visit alerts, lead scoring, sales automation, pipeline management, quoting, forecasting, and reporting; Service Hub, a service software designed to help businesses manage, respond, and connect with customers; and Content Hub that helps business with website pages, business blogging, video and podcast hosting, smart content, landing pages and forms, SEO recommendations, forms and lead flow, web analytics reporting, calls-to-action, and file manager. It offers Operations Hub, which provides programmable automation, data sync, data curation, and data quality tools; and Commerce Hub, a B2B commerce suite that provides payment links, invoices, quotes, subscription management, and automation and revenue reporting; and breeze, an AI that powers the customer platform that provides AI-powered insights, automation, content generation, and data enrichment, as well as Breeze Assistant, a go-to-market assistant to boost productivity and make work easier; and Breeze Agents, which helps teams automate work end-to-end from strategy to execution. In addition, the company provides professional services to educate and train customers on how to utilize its CRM platform; and customer success; phone and/or email and chat-based support services; and helps customers by providing Customer Success Manager and Partner Development Manager digital channels through educational content academey. It serves mid-market business-to-business companies. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HubSpot, Inc reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +24.6%/yr. Reported net income was $45.9M in FY2025.
HUBS screens 87% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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