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HubSpot Inc (HUBS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what HubSpot Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Technology · US · ISIN US4435731009

HI HubSpot Inc logo Thin data Sep 18, 2026

HubSpot Inc

HUBS · US

Stretched ValuationQuality growthStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $85.80 · Strongly overvalued (−60%)
!Quality 60/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +28.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 20 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$852.08 $170.28 Fair Value $85.80 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $170.28 – $852.08 · fair‑value band $60.06 – $111.54 · the $216.12 price screens above the $85.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

HubSpot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) platform for businesses in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.

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HubSpot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) platform for businesses in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company's CRM platform includes Marketing Hub, a toolset for marketing automation and email, social media, SEO, AEO, and reporting and analytics; Sales Hub offers email templates and tracking, conversations and live chat, meeting and call scheduling, lead and website visit alerts, lead scoring, sales automation, pipeline management, quoting, forecasting, and reporting; Service Hub, a service software designed to help businesses manage, respond, and connect with customers; and Content Hub that helps business with website pages, business blogging, video and podcast hosting, smart content, landing pages and forms, SEO recommendations, forms and lead flow, web analytics reporting, calls-to-action, and file manager. It offers Operations Hub, which provides programmable automation, data sync, data curation, and data quality tools; and Commerce Hub, a B2B commerce suite that provides payment links, invoices, quotes, subscription management, and automation and revenue reporting; and breeze, an AI that powers the customer platform that provides AI-powered insights, automation, content generation, and data enrichment, as well as Breeze Assistant, a go-to-market assistant to boost productivity and make work easier; and Breeze Agents, which helps teams automate work end-to-end from strategy to execution. In addition, the company provides professional services to educate and train customers on how to utilize its CRM platform; and customer success; phone and/or email and chat-based support services; and helps customers by providing Customer Success Manager and Partner Development Manager digital channels through educational content academey. It serves mid-market business-to-business companies. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

HubSpot Inc (HUBS) currently trades at $216.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $85.80, implying the stock looks roughly 151.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $142.83 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $216.12 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $9.56, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $60.06 (bear) to $111.54 (bull), the price of $216.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

HubSpot Inc reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +24.6%/yr. Reported net income was $45.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $11.5B · P/E ratio 113.2 · P/S ratio 1.66 · EPS (TTM) $1.91 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −60%, HUBS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($3.62 to $442.62). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $60.06 Fair Value $85.80 Bull $111.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.37 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $28.54 $27.15 $21.68 76
FCF DCF $240.95 $374.38 $799.23 75
Growth DCF $227.13 $442.62 $795.73 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $240.95 $374.38 $799.23 75
Owner Earnings $47.89 $98.37 $204.34 71
5Y Revenue Exit $73.64 $86.67 $111.04 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $101.42 $142.83 $222.91 74
5Y P/E Exit $86.23 $131.94 $185.58 71
10Y Revenue Exit $123.15 $179.93 $190.80 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $143.51 $239.74 $385.14 67
10Y P/E Exit $132.43 $207.03 $309.61 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $6.10 $42.53 $59.69 63
Lynch FV $20.46 $29.23 $38.00 61
PEG = 1.0 $20.46 $29.23 $38.00 57
EPV $9.38 $9.56 $9.71 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.07 $4.30 $6.82 66
DDM Multi-Stage $2.07 $3.62 $4.51 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $18.83 $25.11 $31.39 63
P/S Multiple $11.43 $15.25 $19.06 58
P/B Multiple $11.43 $15.25 $19.06 55
EV/EBIT $12.33 $13.66 $15.00 66
EV/EBITDA $47.27 $60.25 $73.24 67
EV/Revenue $10.35 $11.22 $12.08 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $20.18 $27.04 $40.36 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $227.13 $442.62 $795.73 75
Rev-Margin DCF $77.91 $98.56 $143.59 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $28.54 $27.15 $21.68 76
ROIC Compounder $9.38 $9.56 $9.71 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $30.03 $42.90 $55.77 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 93
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 22
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 51
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.8%
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−5.8% (2020) → 0.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+18.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+15.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+13.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+12.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+10.5%

HUBS screens 152% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 701 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside −89% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 23% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.22× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 113.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B 5.19× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 3.25× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 15.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.35× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)20 · sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €186.56 €156.00 −16%
Shopify Inc SHOP C$178.41 C$112.02 −37%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $71.43 $102.51 +44%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $255.65 $344.41 +35%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $141.90 $156.09 +10%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $273.96 $224.24 −18%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $322.98 $74.65 −77%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $230.27 $32.92 −86%
Adobe Inc ADBE $257.76 $471.62 +83%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $276.53 $177.51 −36%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HubSpot Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HUBS

Frequently asked questions

Is HubSpot Inc (HUBS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $85.80 versus a price of $216.12, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HUBS?
Our model-based fair value for HubSpot Inc is $85.80 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $216.12.
What is the quality score of HUBS?
HubSpot Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $85.80 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $60.06, optimistic scenario $111.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HubSpot Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $85.80, about −60% upside versus a price of $216.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $60.06, optimistic scenario $111.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
HubSpot Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does HubSpot Inc pay a dividend?
HubSpot Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HubSpot Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +4.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.8 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HUBS use?
Our models discount HubSpot Inc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HubSpot Inc that is +4.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HubSpot Inc (HUBS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HubSpot Inc grew +28.8 % a year. The price currently implies +4.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HubSpot Inc (HUBS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HubSpot Inc (+4.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.15 %: that much free cash flow HubSpot Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HubSpot Inc it is $85.80 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $216.12. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HubSpot Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, HUBS trades above its calculated fair value: price $216.12, fair value $85.80, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HUBS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($216.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($85.80). For HubSpot Inc the two are $130.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HubSpot Inc worth?
The market values HubSpot Inc at about $11.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $216.12; our models calculate a fair value of $85.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HUBS?
Our models span a range for HubSpot Inc: cautious scenario $60.06, base $85.80, optimistic $111.54 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $216.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HUBS?
HubSpot Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 113.2 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $85.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 5.2, P/S 3.3.
What is the PEG ratio of HUBS?
The PEG ratio of HubSpot Inc is 0.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
Balance-sheet figures for HubSpot Inc (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 5.0%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HUBS from its 52-week high?
HubSpot Inc trades at $216.12, about 65% below its 52-week high of $611.00 and 25% above the low of $173.25 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $85.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HubSpot Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HubSpot Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $216.12, calculated fair value $85.80 (−60%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HUBS calculated?
We run HubSpot Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $85.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. HubSpot Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $216.12. Our model-based fair value is $85.80, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HubSpot Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($111.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($60.06 to $111.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of HubSpot Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
The market capitalisation of HubSpot Inc is $11.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HubSpot Inc is 1.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
Earnings per share at HubSpot Inc are $1.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 113.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
The dividend yield of HubSpot Inc is 0.1% (payout 10.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
The net margin of HubSpot Inc is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HubSpot Inc is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HubSpot Inc is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
The operating margin of HubSpot Inc is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
Revenue at HubSpot Inc is growing +23.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?
Earnings per share at HubSpot Inc are growing +968% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does HubSpot Inc (HUBS) hold?
HubSpot Inc holds more cash than debt, $397M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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