Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Intrepid Potash Inc $14.99, price $36.72, upside -59.2%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.58 – $119.50 · fair‑value band $14.01 – $17.69 · the $36.72 price screens above the $14.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Intrepid Potash, Inc. delivers potassium, magnesium, sulfur, salt, and water products. It operates through three segments: Potash, Trio, and Oilfield Solutions.
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Intrepid Potash, Inc. delivers potassium, magnesium, sulfur, salt, and water products. It operates through three segments: Potash, Trio, and Oilfield Solutions. The company offers muriate of potash for various markets, such as in agricultural market as a fertilizer input, in animal feed market as a nutrient supplement, in industrial market as a component in drilling and fracturing fluids, as well as input to other industrial processes. It also provides Trio, a specialty fertilizer that delivers potassium, sulfate, and magnesium in a single particle; salt for various markets, including animal feed, industrial applications, pool salt, and the treatment of roads and walkways for ice melting or to manage road conditions; magnesium chloride for use as a road treatment agent for deicing and dedusting; brines for use in oil and gas industry to support well workover and completion activities; and metal recovery salts. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Denver, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI) currently trades at $36.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.99, implying the stock looks roughly 145.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $24.51 per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the $36.72 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $10.34, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $14.01 (bear) to $17.69 (bull), the price of $36.72 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Intrepid Potash Inc reported revenue of $298M in FY2025 versus $270M in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was $11.2M in FY2025, compounding −54.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $484M · P/E ratio 33.1 · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) $1.11 · Net margin 3.7% · Return on equity 3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin 9.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −59%, IPI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $14.01Fair Value $14.99Bull $17.69
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8120 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−17.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−39% vs −4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−12% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.8% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−59% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)33.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.98× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.00× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF18.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA6.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.96× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)31· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)12· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.99 versus a price of $36.72, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IPI?
Our model-based fair value for Intrepid Potash Inc is $14.99 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.72.
What is the quality score of IPI?
Intrepid Potash Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.99 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.01, optimistic scenario $17.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Intrepid Potash Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.99, about −59% upside versus a price of $36.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $14.01, optimistic scenario $17.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
Intrepid Potash Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $242M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Intrepid Potash Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +10.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IPI use?
Our models discount Intrepid Potash Inc at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Intrepid Potash Inc that is +10.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Intrepid Potash Inc grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +10.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Intrepid Potash Inc (+10.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.28 %: that much free cash flow Intrepid Potash Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Intrepid Potash Inc it is $14.99 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $36.72. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Intrepid Potash Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, IPI trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.72, fair value $14.99, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IPI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.99). For Intrepid Potash Inc the two are $21.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Intrepid Potash Inc worth?
The market values Intrepid Potash Inc at about $484M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $36.72; our models calculate a fair value of $14.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IPI?
Our models span a range for Intrepid Potash Inc: cautious scenario $14.01, base $14.99, optimistic $17.69 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $36.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IPI?
Intrepid Potash Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.0, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
What is the PEG ratio of IPI?
The PEG ratio of Intrepid Potash Inc is 0.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Intrepid Potash Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IPI from its 52-week high?
Intrepid Potash Inc trades at $36.72, about 25% below its 52-week high of $48.84 and 53% above the low of $23.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Intrepid Potash Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Intrepid Potash Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $36.72, calculated fair value $14.99 (−59%), Quality Score 66/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IPI calculated?
We run Intrepid Potash Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Intrepid Potash Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $36.72. Our model-based fair value is $14.99, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Intrepid Potash Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Intrepid Potash Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
The market capitalisation of Intrepid Potash Inc is $484M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Intrepid Potash Inc is 1.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
Earnings per share at Intrepid Potash Inc are $1.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
The net margin of Intrepid Potash Inc is 3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Intrepid Potash Inc is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Intrepid Potash Inc is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
The operating margin of Intrepid Potash Inc is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
Revenue at Intrepid Potash Inc is growing +6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI)?
Earnings per share at Intrepid Potash Inc are growing +60.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Intrepid Potash Inc (IPI) hold?
Intrepid Potash Inc holds more cash than debt, $80.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026