Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc $6.71, price $6.46, upside +3.8%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.79 – $16.23 · fair‑value band $5.28 – $8.38 · the $6.46 price screens below the $6.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests, finances, and manages mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets in the United States.
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Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests, finances, and manages mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are guaranteed by the United States (U.S.) government agency or federally chartered corporation; RMBS and CMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; the U.S. treasury securities; real estate-related financing arrangements; to-be-announced securities forward contracts to purchase RMBS; and commercial mortgage loans. It has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) currently trades at $6.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.71, implying the stock looks roughly 3.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $19.68 per share, and 13 of the 14 models we run sit above the $6.46 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.96, and 1 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.28 (bear) to $8.38 (bull), the price of $6.46 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc reported revenue of $340M in FY2025 versus $50.3M in FY2021, a compound +61.2%/yr. Reported net income was $101M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $704M · P/E ratio 4.1 · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) $1.59 · Net margin 29.8% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin 86.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 4%, IVR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.28Fair Value $6.71Bull $8.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1244 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−43.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−43.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−44% vs −21%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−159% → 30%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+54.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +50.6% a year for the price.
Compare Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Above median
Fair Value upside+4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)86% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)87% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth558% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)22.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IVR
Frequently asked questions
Is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.71 versus a price of $6.46, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of IVR?
Our model-based fair value for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is $6.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.46.
What is the quality score of IVR?
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.28, optimistic scenario $8.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.71, about +4% upside versus a price of $6.46 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.28, optimistic scenario $8.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $139M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +54.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 6 years revenue grew -3.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IVR use?
Our models discount Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc at 12.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.57, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc that is +54.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) delivered so far?
Over the past 6 years revenue at Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc grew -3.0 % a year. The price currently implies +54.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (+54.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 36.67 %: that much free cash flow Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc it is $6.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $6.46. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, IVR trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.46, fair value $6.71, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IVR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.71). For Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc the two are $0.2470 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc worth?
The market values Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc at about $704M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $6.46; our models calculate a fair value of $6.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IVR?
Our models span a range for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc: cautious scenario $5.28, base $6.71, optimistic $8.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $6.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IVR?
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.2, P/B 0.9, P/S 5.1, EV/EBITDA 2.0.
What is the PEG ratio of IVR?
The PEG ratio of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is 7.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.1%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IVR from its 52-week high?
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc trades at $6.46, about 23% below its 52-week high of $8.34 and 9% above the low of $5.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $6.46, calculated fair value $6.71 (+4%), Quality Score 47/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IVR calculated?
We run Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $6.46. Our model-based fair value is $6.71, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The market capitalisation of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is $704M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is 1.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Earnings per share at Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc are $1.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The net margin of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is 29.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The operating margin of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is 86.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Revenue at Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is growing +558% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Earnings per share at Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc are growing +18.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) carry?
The net debt of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is $5.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 35.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026