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Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc stock $6.61, price $5.41, upside +22.2%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate US

IM Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc logo Some data Nov 4, 2026

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc

IVR · US
Speculative

The stock costs 18% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $6.61 · Undervalued (18%)
Highly profitable · 86.1% net margin (TTM)
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Upbeat coverage
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 3% above the price ($5.59).
Quality 47/100
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +3.2 %/yr in USD)
Moderate moat 60/100 · thin data
Some data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$13.98 $3.79 Fair Value $6.61 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.79 – $13.98 · fair‑value band $5.59 – $8.27 · the $5.41 price screens below the $6.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests, finances, and manages mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets in the United States.

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The company invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are guaranteed by the United States (U.S.) government agency or federally chartered corporation; RMBS and CMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; the U.S. treasury securities; real estate-related financing arrangements; to-be-announced securities forward contracts to purchase RMBS; and commercial mortgage loans.

It has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Stock analysis

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) currently trades at $5.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.61, implying the stock looks roughly 18% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $18.59 per share, and 12 of the 13 models we run sit above the $5.41 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.90, and 1 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $5.59 (bear) to $8.27 (bull), the price of $5.41 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc reported revenue of $340M in FY2025 versus $50.3M in FY2021, a compound +61.2%/yr. Reported net income was $101M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $557M Small · P/S ratio 4.15 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2400 · Net margin 29.8% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 86.5% · Revenue (TTM) $139M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 56% fair-value upside, at 22%, IVR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.59 Fair Value $6.61 Bull $8.27
Price $5.41 · Upside +22.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $20.24 $25.12 $32.88 80
Growth DCF $20.70 $24.83 $31.00 78
5Y EBITDA Exit $13.21 $16.08 $19.90 74
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $20.24 $25.12 $32.88 80
5Y Revenue Exit $12.18 $14.30 $17.34 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $13.21 $16.08 $19.90 74
10Y Revenue Exit $15.97 $17.72 $19.32 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $16.57 $18.63 $20.57 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $6.58 $7.02 $7.65 67
DDM Multi-Stage $6.58 $7.55 $8.76 65
Multiples
P/S Multiple $5.84 $7.78 $9.73 58
P/B Multiple $7.68 $10.23 $12.79 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.65 $4.90 $7.31 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $20.70 $24.83 $31.00 78
Rev-Margin DCF $10.38 $12.35 $14.77 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $6.22 $6.88 $7.89 74

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 37
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 93
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 3
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 86
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 47
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 12
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 10
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • BuyMark William GregsonChief Financial Officer1,750 shares at $8.03$14,053May 5, 2026
  • BuyRobert WaldnerDirector1,000 shares at $8.45$8,450Feb 27, 2026

Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−43.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−43.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−43.9% vs −20.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−159% → 30%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Watch IVR, get fair value alerts →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (86 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 31 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Above median
Fair Value upside +22.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 14.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 86.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 86.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 557.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 26.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.70× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.99× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 3.6× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.6× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 7.20× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)63 · sector 100
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 97
PAST (return on equity)57 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 100

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
MFA Financial, Inc MFA $6.21 $14.69 +137% vs IVR
AGNC Investment Corp AGNC $8.78 $18.66 +113% vs IVR
Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD $12.05 $25.00 +107% vs IVR
Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC $4.94 $8.77 +78% vs IVR
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR $12.60 $19.59 +56% vs IVR
Rithm Capital Corp RITM $9.23 $13.14 +42% vs IVR
Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY $18.75 $19.24 +3% vs IVR
Ellington Financial Inc EFC $11.26 $11.12 −1% vs IVR
Dynex Capital, Inc DX $10.68 $9.12 −15% vs IVR
Ladder Capital Corp LADR $8.91 $7.56 −15% vs IVR

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Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IVR

Frequently asked questions

Is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.61 versus a price of $5.41, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of IVR?
Our model-based fair value for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is $6.61 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.41.
What is the quality score of IVR?
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.61 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.59, optimistic scenario $8.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.61, about +22% upside versus a price of $5.41 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.59, optimistic scenario $8.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $139M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc it is $6.61 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $5.41. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, IVR trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.41, fair value $6.61, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IVR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.61). For Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc the two are $1.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc worth?
The market values Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc at about $557M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $5.41; our models calculate a fair value of $6.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IVR?
Our models span a range for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc: cautious scenario $5.59, base $6.61, optimistic $8.27 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $5.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of IVR?
The PEG ratio of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is 7.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 14.1%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IVR from its 52-week high?
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc trades at $5.41, about 35% below its 52-week high of $8.34 and 3% above the low of $5.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Rithm Capital Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $5.41, calculated fair value $6.61 (+22%), Quality Score 47/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IVR calculated?
We run Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $6.61 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc currently trades 18% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $5.41. Our model-based fair value is $6.61, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.59). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The market capitalisation of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is $557M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is 4.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Earnings per share at Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc are $−0.2400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The net margin of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is 29.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
The operating margin of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is 86.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Revenue at Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is growing +558% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?
Earnings per share at Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc are growing +18.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) generate?
The free cash flow of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is $157M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR) carry?
The net debt of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc is $5.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 35.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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