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JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of JD Logistics, Inc $4.67, price $1.30, upside +259.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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JL
Some data
Oct 2, 2026
Some data
Oct 2, 2026
JD Logistics, Inc
JDLGF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $4.67 · Strongly undervalued (+259.2%)
!Quality 58/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +23.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 37/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.9200 – $5.50 · fair‑value band $3.27 – $6.08 · the $1.30 price screens below the $4.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
JD Logistics, Inc., an investment holding company, provides integrated supply chain solutions and logistics services in the People's Republic of China.
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JD Logistics, Inc., an investment holding company, provides integrated supply chain solutions and logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers warehousing and distribution services, including warehousing, distribution and delivery, and value-added logistics services; and express and freight delivery service, such as parcel pickup, parcel sorting, line-haul transportation, and last-mile delivery through warehouse, line-haul transportation, last-mile delivery, bulky item logistics, cold chain logistics, and cross-border logistics networks. It also provides value-added services, such as installment, after-sales and maintenance, logistics technology, and advertising services. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of freight transportation, technology and consulting, and courier services; and freight forwarder and air cargo business. It serves fast-moving consumer goods, home appliances and home furniture, apparel, 3C, automotive, fresh produce, and other industries. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. JD Logistics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Jingdong Technology Group Corporation.
Stock analysis
JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF) currently trades at $1.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.67, implying the stock looks roughly 72.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.29 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the $1.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.8900, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.27 (bear) to $6.08 (bull), the price of $1.30 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
JD Logistics, Inc reported revenue of 212B CNY in FY2025 versus 105B CNY in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was 6.5B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $11.1B · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) $0.1500 · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% · Operating margin 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 259%, JDLGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.27
Fair Value $4.67
Bull $6.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1134 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$5.18
$8.02
$16.91
76
Growth DCF
$4.90
$8.87
$16.83
75
EPV
$1.42
$1.60
$1.75
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$5.18
$8.02
$16.91
76
Owner Earnings
$5.16
$11.29
$24.16
71
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.54
$3.77
$6.18
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$4.79
$8.47
$15.43
72
5Y P/E Exit
$3.47
$6.55
$10.55
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.24
$5.43
$7.08
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$4.90
$9.95
$19.43
64
10Y P/E Exit
$3.96
$7.29
$13.04
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.07
$7.47
$10.48
63
Lynch FV
$2.48
$3.54
$4.60
61
PEG = 1.0
$2.48
$3.54
$4.60
57
EPV
$1.42
$1.60
$1.75
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2.48
$3.31
$4.13
63
P/S Multiple
$2.01
$2.68
$3.35
58
P/B Multiple
$2.01
$2.68
$3.35
55
EV/EBIT
$1.94
$2.46
$2.99
66
EV/EBITDA
$4.64
$6.07
$7.50
67
EV/Revenue
$1.48
$1.97
$2.45
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.6700
$0.8900
$1.33
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.90
$8.87
$16.83
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.54
$4.21
$6.77
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.23
$1.45
$2.04
70
ROIC Compounder
$1.51
$1.99
$2.42
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$3.27
$4.67
$6.08
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
58/100
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Profitability
48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
39
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
66
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.7% (2020) → 2.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−28.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −29.5% a year for the price and +9.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+25.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+10.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+9.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+8.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+7.0%
Watch JDLGF, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (36 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Why JD Logistics Stock And Chinese Port Operators Are Back In Focus
- JINGDONG Logistics Details Global Network Build-Out and the Expansion of JoyLogistics Operations
- DEEP Robotics’ Robot Dog Joins JD Logistics as “Cyber Tea Farmer” to Bridge First Kilometer of Spring Tea Harvest
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 203 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $93.44 | $107.34 | +15% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €55.74 | €137.08 | +146% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $289.65 | $349.54 | +21% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,199 | kr 711.95 | −41% |
| Poste Italiane S.p.A PST | €24.49 | €14.24 | −42% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 224.50 | CHF 147.92 | −34% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $188.58 | $116.66 | −38% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥30.54 | ¥109.70 | +259% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $226.07 | $133.80 | −41% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $148.24 | $87.31 | −41% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.67 versus a price of $1.30, about +259% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JDLGF?
Our model-based fair value for JD Logistics, Inc is $4.67 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.30.
What is the quality score of JDLGF?
JD Logistics, Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.67 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.27, optimistic scenario $6.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the JD Logistics, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.67, about +259% upside versus a price of $1.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $3.27, optimistic scenario $6.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
JD Logistics, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 231B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, JD Logistics, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -28.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.6 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JDLGF use?
Our models discount JD Logistics, Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For JD Logistics, Inc that is -28.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at JD Logistics, Inc grew +23.6 % a year. The price currently implies -28.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into JD Logistics, Inc (-28.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.92 %: that much free cash flow JD Logistics, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For JD Logistics, Inc it is $4.67 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $1.30. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is JD Logistics, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, JDLGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.30, fair value $4.67, a gap of about +259% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JDLGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.67). For JD Logistics, Inc the two are $3.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is JD Logistics, Inc worth?
The market values JD Logistics, Inc at about $11.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $1.30; our models calculate a fair value of $4.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JDLGF?
Our models span a range for JD Logistics, Inc: cautious scenario $3.27, base $4.67, optimistic $6.08 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $1.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JDLGF?
JD Logistics, Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6.
What is the PEG ratio of JDLGF?
The PEG ratio of JD Logistics, Inc is 0.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for JD Logistics, Inc (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JDLGF from its 52-week high?
JD Logistics, Inc trades at $1.30, about 32% below its 52-week high of $1.90 and 38% above the low of $0.9415 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to JD Logistics, Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is JD Logistics, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $1.30, calculated fair value $4.67 (+259%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JDLGF calculated?
We run JD Logistics, Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. JD Logistics, Inc currently trades 72 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $1.30. Our model-based fair value is $4.67, about +259% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with JD Logistics, Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.27). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($3.27 to $6.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of JD Logistics, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
The market capitalisation of JD Logistics, Inc is $11.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of JD Logistics, Inc is 0.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
Earnings per share at JD Logistics, Inc are $0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
The net margin of JD Logistics, Inc is 3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of JD Logistics, Inc is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of JD Logistics, Inc is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
The operating margin of JD Logistics, Inc is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
Revenue at JD Logistics, Inc is growing +29.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF)?
Earnings per share at JD Logistics, Inc are growing +13.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does JD Logistics, Inc (JDLGF) carry?
The net debt of JD Logistics, Inc is 3.9B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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