JM AB (JM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SE · Market cap 8.0B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from kr 47.43 to kr 47.27 (−0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −9.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 63% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 47.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The models converge in a tight band (kr 42.26 to kr 47.63), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 106.91 – kr 348.87 · fair‑value band kr 42.26 – kr 47.63 · the kr 127.00 price screens above the kr 47.27 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
JM AB (JM) currently trades at kr 127.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 47.27, implying the stock looks roughly 62.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, JM AB generated revenue of 10.6B SEK at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue declined 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.7%. Net debt stands at 10.2B SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 42.26 (bear case) to kr 47.63 (bull case); at kr 127.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at -63%, JM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 161.35) versus Earnings-Based (kr 7.22). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
JM AB (publ) constructs, develops, and sells housing and residential areas in the Nordic region. The company operates through JM Residential Stockholm, JM Residential Sweden, JM Norway, JM Finland, and JM Property Development segments.
Full company description
JM AB (publ) constructs, develops, and sells housing and residential areas in the Nordic region. The company operates through JM Residential Stockholm, JM Residential Sweden, JM Norway, JM Finland, and JM Property Development segments. It also engages in the acquisition of development properties; planning, pre-construction, production, and sale of residential units; development of rental units, residential care units, and commercial properties; provision of economic and technical management, and housing services to tenant-owners associations; and contract works in the Greater Stockholm area. JM AB (publ) was incorporated in 1945 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
JM AB reported revenue of kr 10.7B in FY2025 versus kr 15.7B in FY2021, a compound −9.1%/yr. Reported net income was kr 56.0M in FY2025, compounding −58.0%/yr from FY2021.
JM screens 63% overvalued. Compare with D.R. Horton, Inc →
Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
Compare JM AB with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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