CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of CarMax, Inc. BRL 67.26, price BRL 147, upside -54.4%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$81.30 – R$389.50 · fair‑value band R$56.67 – R$94.44 · the R$147.45 price screens above the R$67.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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CarMax, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles and related products in the United States. The company operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance.
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CarMax, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles and related products in the United States. The company operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. The CarMax Sales Operations segment offers customers a range of makes and models of used vehicles, including domestic, imported, and luxury vehicles, as well as hybrid and electric vehicles; used vehicle auctions; extended protection plans to customers at the time of sale; and reconditioning and vehicle repair services. The CarMax Auto Finance segment provides financing alternatives for retail customers across a range of credit spectrum and arrangements with various financial institutions. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock analysis
CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34) currently trades at R$147.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$67.26, 54.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of R$81.98 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the R$147.45 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at R$28.49, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$56.67 (bear) to R$94.44 (bull), the price of R$147.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
CarMax, Inc. reported revenue of $25.9B in FY2026 versus $31.9B in FY2022, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was $247M in FY2026, compounding −31.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap R$41.6B (≈ $8.0B) · P/E ratio 35.4 · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) R$4.17 · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 3.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% · Operating margin 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −54%, K1MX34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$56.67Fair Value R$67.26Bull R$94.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$2.48 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−24.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → −2%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.4% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 92 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−47.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.6% · Below median
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.93× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)35.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.35× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.28× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF6.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA24.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.52× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)28· sector 17
PAST (return on equity)14· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 67
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CarMax, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/K1MX34
Frequently asked questions
Is CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$67.26 versus a price of R$147.45, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of K1MX34?
Our model-based fair value for CarMax, Inc. is R$67.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$147.45.
What is the quality score of K1MX34?
CarMax, Inc. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$67.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$56.67, optimistic scenario R$94.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CarMax, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$67.26, about −54% upside versus a price of R$147.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$56.67, optimistic scenario R$94.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
CarMax, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $28.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CarMax, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +15.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -5.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of K1MX34 use?
Our models discount CarMax, Inc. at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.16, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CarMax, Inc. that is +15.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at CarMax, Inc. grew -5.1 % a year. The price currently implies +15.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CarMax, Inc. (+15.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 31.04 %: that much free cash flow CarMax, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CarMax, Inc. it is R$67.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$147.45. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CarMax, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, K1MX34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$147.45, fair value R$67.26, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of K1MX34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$147.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$67.26). For CarMax, Inc. the two are R$80.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CarMax, Inc. worth?
The market values CarMax, Inc. at about R$41.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$147.45; our models calculate a fair value of R$67.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about K1MX34?
Our models span a range for CarMax, Inc.: cautious scenario R$56.67, base R$67.26, optimistic R$94.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$147.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of K1MX34?
CarMax, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$67.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 24.3.
What is the PEG ratio of K1MX34?
The PEG ratio of CarMax, Inc. is 0.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
Balance-sheet figures for CarMax, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.6%, debt of 2.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is K1MX34 from its 52-week high?
CarMax, Inc. trades at R$147.45, about 11% below its 52-week high of R$164.96 and 81% above the low of R$81.30 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$67.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CarMax, Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, D'Ieteren Group, Hotai Motor Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CarMax, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$147.45, calculated fair value R$67.26 (−54%), Quality Score 56/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of K1MX34 calculated?
We run CarMax, Inc. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$67.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CarMax, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$147.45. Our model-based fair value is R$67.26, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CarMax, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$94.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of CarMax, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
The market capitalisation of CarMax, Inc. is R$41.6B (≈ $8.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CarMax, Inc. is 0.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
Earnings per share at CarMax, Inc. are R$4.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
The net margin of CarMax, Inc. is 1.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CarMax, Inc. is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CarMax, Inc. is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
The operating margin of CarMax, Inc. is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
Revenue at CarMax, Inc. is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34)?
Earnings per share at CarMax, Inc. are growing −5.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CarMax, Inc. (K1MX34) carry?
The net debt of CarMax, Inc. is $17.9B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 14.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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