Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc stock €786, price €434, upside +81.1%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €232.76 – €446.00 · fair‑value band €494.85 – €982.32 · the €434.00 price screens below the €785.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
Follow Karelia Tobacco Company in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Karelia Tobacco Company is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Karelia Tobacco Company Inc. engages in the manufacture and wholesale of tobacco products in European Union, Africa, Asia, Greece, and Other European countries.
Show moreShow less
The company provides cigarettes, cigars, hand rolling cigarettes, and other duty free tobacco products under the George Karelias and Sons, Omé, Karelia Slims, Karelia Blue, Oriental Mist, American Legend, Leader, Karelia Royal, and Wellington brand names.
It also exports its products to approximately 50 countries. Karelia Tobacco Company Inc. was founded in 1888 and is based in Kalamata, Greece.
Stock analysis
Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE) currently trades at €434.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €785.86, implying the stock looks roughly 45% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €802.50 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the €434.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €161.55, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €494.85 (bear) to €982.32 (bull), the price of €434.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Karelia Tobacco Company Inc reported revenue of €1.7B in FY2025 versus €1.2B in FY2021, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was €103M in FY2025, compounding +4.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.2B Small · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 3.35 · EPS (TTM) €50.66 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 39.1% · Return on equity 16.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 81%, KARE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€494.85Fair Value €785.86Bull€982.32
Price €434.00 · Upside +81.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€30.82 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.2% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.9% vs 5.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.5% a year for the price.
Compare Karelia Tobacco Company Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 29 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Above median
Fair Value upside+81.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.6% · Above median
Return on assets10.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)39.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)9.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.4% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.40× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.35× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)13.6× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Karelia Tobacco Company Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KARE
Frequently asked questions
Is Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €785.86 versus a price of €434.00, about +81% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KARE?
Our model-based fair value for Karelia Tobacco Company Inc is €785.86 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €434.00.
What is the quality score of KARE?
Karelia Tobacco Company Inc has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €785.86 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €494.85, optimistic scenario €982.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Karelia Tobacco Company Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €785.86, about +81% upside versus a price of €434.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €494.85, optimistic scenario €982.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Karelia Tobacco Company Inc pay a dividend?
Karelia Tobacco Company Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Karelia Tobacco Company Inc pays a dividend of €14.60 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 9, 2026. The payout ratio is 28.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.19 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Karelia Tobacco Company Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -6.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.5 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KARE use?
Our models discount Karelia Tobacco Company Inc at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for Greece. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Karelia Tobacco Company Inc that is -6.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Karelia Tobacco Company Inc grew +8.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -6.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (-6.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.35 %: that much free cash flow Karelia Tobacco Company Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Karelia Tobacco Company Inc it is €785.86 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of €434.00. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Karelia Tobacco Company Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, KARE trades below its calculated fair value: price €434.00, fair value €785.86, a gap of about +81% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KARE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€434.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€785.86). For Karelia Tobacco Company Inc the two are €351.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Karelia Tobacco Company Inc worth?
The market values Karelia Tobacco Company Inc at about €1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is €434.00; our models calculate a fair value of €785.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KARE?
Our models span a range for Karelia Tobacco Company Inc: cautious scenario €494.85, base €785.86, optimistic €982.32 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price €434.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KARE?
Karelia Tobacco Company Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €785.86 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.1. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 16.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KARE from its 52-week high?
Karelia Tobacco Company Inc trades at €434.00, about 3% below its 52-week high of €446.00 and 29% above the low of €336.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €785.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Karelia Tobacco Company Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, Altria Group, British American Tobacco p.l.c., KT&G Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Karelia Tobacco Company Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price €434.00, calculated fair value €785.86 (+81%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KARE calculated?
We run Karelia Tobacco Company Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €785.86 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Karelia Tobacco Company Inc currently trades 45% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €434.00. Our model-based fair value is €785.86, about +81% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Karelia Tobacco Company Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€494.85). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€494.85 to €982.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
The market capitalisation of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc is €1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc is 3.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
Earnings per share at Karelia Tobacco Company Inc are €50.66 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
The dividend yield of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc is 3.4% (payout 28.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
The net margin of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc is 39.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc is 16.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc is 12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
The operating margin of Karelia Tobacco Company Inc is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
Revenue at Karelia Tobacco Company Inc is growing +10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE)?
Earnings per share at Karelia Tobacco Company Inc are growing +112% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Karelia Tobacco Company Inc (KARE) hold?
Karelia Tobacco Company Inc holds more cash than debt, €289M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Karelia Tobacco Company Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Karelia Tobacco Company Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 4, 2026