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Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Kaival Brands Innovations Group $0.02, price $0.03, upside -41.1%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026
Thin data
Sep 27, 2026
Kaival Brands Innovations Group
KAVL · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $0.0175 · Strongly overvalued (−41.1%)
!Quality 31/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −76.4 %/yr)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/5)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0140 – $262.50 · the $0.0297 price screens above the $0.0175 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Company profile
Kaival Brands Innovations Group, Inc. sells, markets, and distributes electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) products and related components in the United States. The company is based in Grant-Valkaria, Florida.
Stock analysis
Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL) currently trades at $0.0297, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0175, 41.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Kaival Brands Innovations Group reported revenue of $46.8K in FY2025 versus $58.8M in FY2021, a compound −83.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$16.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $527K · P/S ratio 1.44 · EPS (TTM) $−1.01 · Return on equity −222% · Return on assets (EBIT) −559% · Operating margin −1,531% · Revenue growth (YoY) −20.2% · Free cash flow −$2.8M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 95% below its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at −41%, KAVL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
n/a
n/a
$0.0100
48
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
n/a
n/a
$0.0100
48
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
31/100
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Profitability
20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−99.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−84.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−76.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.0%
’09
’10
’11
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.3% (2020) → −36,526.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 37 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Tobacco
Similar stocks
10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $190.82 | $112.99 | −41% |
| British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI | $54.40 | $96.20 | +77% |
| Altria Group MO | $67.34 | $81.82 | +22% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 174,300 KRW | 99,137 KRW | −43% |
| PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP | 635.00 IDR | 994.45 IDR | +57% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹1,892 | ₹1,050 | −44% |
| TABAK TABAK | 17,940 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +29% |
| RLX Technology Inc RLX | $1.69 | $2.35 | +39% |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$23.46 | HK$29.35 | +25% |
| PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM | 17,150 IDR | 16,988 IDR | −1% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0175 versus a price of $0.0297, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KAVL?
Our model-based fair value for Kaival Brands Innovations Group is $0.0175 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0297.
What is the quality score of KAVL?
Kaival Brands Innovations Group has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0175 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kaival Brands Innovations Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0175, about −41% upside versus a price of $0.0297 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kaival Brands Innovations Group it is $0.0175 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $0.0297. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kaival Brands Innovations Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, KAVL trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.0297, fair value $0.0175, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KAVL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0297); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0175). For Kaival Brands Innovations Group the two are $0.0122 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kaival Brands Innovations Group worth?
The market values Kaival Brands Innovations Group at about $527K (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $0.0297; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0175 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kaival Brands Innovations Group (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KAVL from its 52-week high?
Kaival Brands Innovations Group trades at $0.0297, about 95% below its 52-week high of $0.6301 and 112% above the low of $0.0140 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0175 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kaival Brands Innovations Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, British American Tobacco p.l.c., Altria Group, KT&G Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kaival Brands Innovations Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $0.0297, calculated fair value $0.0175 (−41%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KAVL calculated?
We run Kaival Brands Innovations Group through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0175, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Kaival Brands Innovations Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $0.0297. Our model-based fair value is $0.0175, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kaival Brands Innovations Group right now?
Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Kaival Brands Innovations Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL)?
The market capitalisation of Kaival Brands Innovations Group is $527K. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kaival Brands Innovations Group is 1.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL)?
Earnings per share at Kaival Brands Innovations Group are $−1.01. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kaival Brands Innovations Group is −222% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kaival Brands Innovations Group is −559% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL)?
The operating margin of Kaival Brands Innovations Group is −1,531% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL)?
Revenue at Kaival Brands Innovations Group is growing −20.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −84.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL) generate?
The free cash flow of Kaival Brands Innovations Group is −$2.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Kaival Brands Innovations Group (KAVL) hold?
Kaival Brands Innovations Group holds more cash than debt, $534K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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