Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Grupa KĘTY SA PLN 1,389, price PLN 1,263, upside +10.0%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 355.04 PLN – 1,334 PLN · fair‑value band 990.69 PLN – 1,796 PLN · the 1,263 PLN price screens below the 1,389 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Grupa Kety S.A. produces and sells aluminum profiles and components in Poland and internationally. It operates through three segments: Extruded Products, Aluminum Systems, and Flexible Packaging. The company produces and sells aluminum profiles and components.
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Grupa Kety S.A. produces and sells aluminum profiles and components in Poland and internationally. It operates through three segments: Extruded Products, Aluminum Systems, and Flexible Packaging. The company produces and sells aluminum profiles and components. It also engages in the production, trading, and sale of aluminum facades systems, doors and windows, internal structures, external aluminum roller shutters, and roller gates for the construction business. In addition, the company produces and sells pergolas, external blinds, awnings, reflex screens, and sunbreakers. Further, it is involved in the production and sale of printed flexible packaging and BOPP films for food manufacturers and other sectors. It sells its products under the Grupa Kety, Aluprof, Alupol Packaging, and Selt Sp. z o.o. brands. The company serves construction, automotive, transport, electrical engineering, household equipment, advertising, tourism, food concentrates, confectionery, fats, dairy, meat, cold meat, pharmaceutical, and chemical industries. The company was formerly known as Zaklady Metali Lekkich "Kety' and changed its name to Grupa Kety S.A. in 2000. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Kety, Poland.
Stock analysis
Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY) currently trades at 1,263 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,389 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1,171 PLN per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the 1,263 PLN price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 391.65 PLN, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 990.69 PLN (bear) to 1,796 PLN (bull), the price of 1,263 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Grupa KĘTY SA reported revenue of 5.5B PLN in FY2025 versus 4.6B PLN in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 568M PLN in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.4B PLN (≈ $3.2B) · P/E ratio 21.1 · P/S ratio 2.18 · EPS (TTM) 59.85 PLN · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 10.3% · Return on equity 28.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at 10%, KTY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 990.69 PLNFair Value 1,389 PLNBull 1,796 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (7.90 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 10%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.3% a year for the price and +4.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupa KĘTY SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KTY
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,389 PLN versus a price of 1,263 PLN, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KTY?
Our model-based fair value for Grupa KĘTY SA is 1,389 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,263 PLN.
What is the quality score of KTY?
Grupa KĘTY SA has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,389 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 990.69 PLN, optimistic scenario 1,796 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupa KĘTY SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,389 PLN, about +10% upside versus a price of 1,263 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 990.69 PLN, optimistic scenario 1,796 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
Grupa KĘTY SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.5B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Grupa KĘTY SA pay a dividend?
Grupa KĘTY SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.88% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupa KĘTY SA would have to grow free cash flow by +9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KTY use?
Our models discount Grupa KĘTY SA at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupa KĘTY SA that is +9.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupa KĘTY SA grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +9.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupa KĘTY SA (+9.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.77 %: that much free cash flow Grupa KĘTY SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupa KĘTY SA it is 1,389 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 1,263 PLN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupa KĘTY SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KTY trades below its calculated fair value: price 1,263 PLN, fair value 1,389 PLN, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KTY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,263 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,389 PLN). For Grupa KĘTY SA the two are 126.30 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupa KĘTY SA worth?
The market values Grupa KĘTY SA at about 12.4B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 1,263 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 1,389 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KTY?
Our models span a range for Grupa KĘTY SA: cautious scenario 990.69 PLN, base 1,389 PLN, optimistic 1,796 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 1,263 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KTY?
Grupa KĘTY SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1,389 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
What is the PEG ratio of KTY?
The PEG ratio of Grupa KĘTY SA is 0.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupa KĘTY SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 28.1%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KTY from its 52-week high?
Grupa KĘTY SA trades at 1,263 PLN, about 5% below its 52-week high of 1,334 PLN and 42% above the low of 887.00 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,389 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupa KĘTY SA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupa KĘTY SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 1,263 PLN, calculated fair value 1,389 PLN (+10%), Quality Score 75/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KTY calculated?
We run Grupa KĘTY SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,389 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupa KĘTY SA currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 1,263 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 1,389 PLN, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupa KĘTY SA right now?
A fairly wide model range (990.69 PLN to 1,796 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY) come from?
Earnings per share at Grupa KĘTY SA grew +14.0 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.6 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Grupa KĘTY SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
The market capitalisation of Grupa KĘTY SA is 12.4B PLN (≈ $3.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupa KĘTY SA is 2.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
Earnings per share at Grupa KĘTY SA are 59.85 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
The dividend yield of Grupa KĘTY SA is 3.9% (payout 82.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
The net margin of Grupa KĘTY SA is 10.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupa KĘTY SA is 28.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupa KĘTY SA is 19.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
The operating margin of Grupa KĘTY SA is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
Revenue at Grupa KĘTY SA is growing +1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY)?
Earnings per share at Grupa KĘTY SA are growing +19.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupa KĘTY SA (KTY) carry?
The net debt of Grupa KĘTY SA is 1.3B PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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