Grupa Kety S.A (KTY) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · PL · Market cap 12.2B PLN
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +7.1% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 29% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1,168 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range (644.13 PLN to 1,168 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 355.04 PLN – 1,328 PLN · fair‑value band 644.13 PLN – 1,168 PLN · the 1,273 PLN price screens above the 903.30 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Grupa Kety S.A (KTY) currently trades at 1,273 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 903.30 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 29.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Grupa Kety S.A generated revenue of 5.5B PLN at a net margin of 10.7%. Revenue grew 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.1%. Net debt stands at 1.3B PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 644.13 PLN (bear case) to 1,168 PLN (bull case); at 1,273 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -29%, KTY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (1,157 PLN) versus Asset-Based (135.93 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grupa Kety S.A. produces and sells aluminum profiles and components in Poland and internationally. It operates through three segments: Extruded Products, Aluminum Systems, and Flexible Packaging. The company produces and sells aluminum profiles and components.
Full company description
Grupa Kety S.A. produces and sells aluminum profiles and components in Poland and internationally. It operates through three segments: Extruded Products, Aluminum Systems, and Flexible Packaging. The company produces and sells aluminum profiles and components. It also engages in the production, trading, and sale of aluminum facades systems, doors and windows, internal structures, external aluminum roller shutters, and roller gates for the construction business. In addition, the company produces and sells pergolas, external blinds, awnings, reflex screens, and sunbreakers. Further, it is involved in the production and sale of printed flexible packaging and BOPP films for food manufacturers and other sectors. It sells its products under the Grupa Kety, Aluprof, Alupol Packaging, and Selt Sp. z o.o. brands. The company serves construction, automotive, transport, electrical engineering, household equipment, advertising, tourism, food concentrates, confectionery, fats, dairy, meat, cold meat, pharmaceutical, and chemical industries. The company was formerly known as Zaklady Metali Lekkich "Kety' and changed its name to Grupa Kety S.A. in 2000. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Kety, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grupa Kety S.A reported revenue of 5.5B PLN in FY2025 versus 4.6B PLN in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 568M PLN in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
KTY screens 29% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →
Peer Group
Aluminum · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.54 | ¥26.70 | +44% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$24.54 | HK$45.53 | +86% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹955.80 | ₹1,026 | +7% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥8.11 | ¥12.58 | +55% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 84.96 | kr 58.10 | -32% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 8.02 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -52% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$70.60 | A$49.53 | -30% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥25.12 | ¥29.68 | +18% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥25.51 | ¥30.28 | +19% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥11.99 | ¥21.86 | +82% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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