Kinaxis Inc (KXS) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · CA · Market cap C$4.2B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +13.7% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 70% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 84/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$65.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$118.75 – C$229.10 · fair‑value band C$39.50 – C$65.83 · the C$173.43 price screens above the C$52.66 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Kinaxis Inc (KXS) currently trades at C$173.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$52.66, implying the stock looks roughly 69.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kinaxis Inc generated revenue of C$581M at a net margin of 14.5%. Revenue grew 24.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$101M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$39.50 (bear case) to C$65.83 (bull case); at C$173.43, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -70%, KXS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$89.74) versus Asset-Based (C$10.32). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 81 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kinaxis Inc. provides cloud-based subscription software-as-a-service for supply chain operations in the United States, Europe, Asia, and Canada. The company offers Kinaxis Maestro, an AI-infused supply chain orchestration platform for artificial intelligence, concurrency, developer studio, integration, security, and user experience.
Full company description
Kinaxis Inc. provides cloud-based subscription software-as-a-service for supply chain operations in the United States, Europe, Asia, and Canada. The company offers Kinaxis Maestro, an AI-infused supply chain orchestration platform for artificial intelligence, concurrency, developer studio, integration, security, and user experience. It also provides various solutions for AI agents, control tower, demand, inventory, order management, planning one, returns, sales and operations planning, scheduling, supply, supply chain optimization, supply chain orchestration, spare parts, sustainability, tariffs, and transportation. In addition, the company offers professional services for implementation and configuration of the product; ongoing technical services; training, enablement, and continuous learning services; and maintenance and support services. It serves the aerospace and defense, automotive, chemical, consumer products, high-tech and electronics, industrial, life sciences, and logistics industries. The company was formerly known as Webplan Inc. and changed its name to Kinaxis Inc. in May 2005. Kinaxis Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kinaxis Inc reported revenue of C$558M in FY2025 versus C$251M in FY2021, a compound +22.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$71.9M in FY2025.
KXS screens 70% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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