El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc $12.85, price $14.28, upside -10.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.18 – $17.20 · fair‑value band $8.42 – $17.93 · the $14.28 price screens above the $12.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name. The company operates and franchises restaurants located in California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Utah, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Washington.
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El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name. The company operates and franchises restaurants located in California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Utah, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Washington. It also licenses its brand to restaurants in the Philippines. The company was formerly known as Chicken Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. in April 2014. El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Costa Mesa, California.
Stock analysis
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO) currently trades at $14.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.85, implying the stock looks roughly 11.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $16.65 per share, and 10 of the 23 models we run sit above the $14.28 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.40, and 13 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.42 (bear) to $17.93 (bull), the price of $14.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc reported revenue of $490M in FY2025 versus $454M in FY2021, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was $26.5M in FY2025, compounding −2.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $488M · P/E ratio 14.6 · P/S ratio 0.79 · EPS (TTM) $0.9800 · Net margin 5.4% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5% · Operating margin 9.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −10%, LOCO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.42Fair Value $12.85Bull $17.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7169 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+0.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6% vs 4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.5% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 228 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−11% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.68× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LOCO
Frequently asked questions
Is El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.85 versus a price of $14.28, about −10% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LOCO?
Our model-based fair value for El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc is $12.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.28.
What is the quality score of LOCO?
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.42, optimistic scenario $17.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.85, about −10% upside versus a price of $14.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.42, optimistic scenario $17.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $497M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +13.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LOCO use?
Our models discount El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc that is +13.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc grew +2.8 % a year. The price currently implies +13.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (+13.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.04 %: that much free cash flow El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc it is $12.85 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $14.28. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LOCO trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.28, fair value $12.85, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LOCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.85). For El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc the two are $1.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc worth?
The market values El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc at about $488M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $14.28; our models calculate a fair value of $12.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LOCO?
Our models span a range for El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $8.42, base $12.85, optimistic $17.93 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $14.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LOCO?
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.85 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.2.
What is the PEG ratio of LOCO?
The PEG ratio of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LOCO from its 52-week high?
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc trades at $14.28, about 17% below its 52-week high of $17.20 and 58% above the low of $9.06 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $14.28, calculated fair value $12.85 (−10%), Quality Score 63/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LOCO calculated?
We run El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $14.28. Our model-based fair value is $12.85, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($8.42 to $17.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
The market capitalisation of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc is $488M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc is 0.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
Earnings per share at El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc are $0.9800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
The net margin of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc is 5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
The operating margin of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
Revenue at El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc is growing +5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO)?
Earnings per share at El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc are growing +43.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc (LOCO) carry?
The net debt of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc is $233M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026