Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 15, 2026: fair value of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd A$0.19, price A$0.76, upside -75.4%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.5650 – A$5.52 · fair‑value band A$0.1275 – A$0.2380 · the A$0.7600 price screens above the A$0.1870 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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LARK Distilling Co. Ltd. engages in the production, marketing, distribution, and sale of craft spirits. The company operates through three segments: Whisky, Gin, and Other. It offers whisky, non-lark products, as well as other products, including slainte and brandy.
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The company provides tasmanian gins under the Forty Spotted brand name. It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as Australian Whisky Holdings Limited and changed its name to Lark Distilling Co. Ltd. in May 2020.
Lark Distilling Co. Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is based in Hobart, Australia.
Stock analysis
Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK) currently trades at A$0.7600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1870, 75.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: A$0.1275 (bear) to A$0.2380 (bull), the price of A$0.7600 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lark Distilling Co. Ltd reported revenue of A$20.1M in FY2026 versus A$24.3M in FY2022, a compound −4.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$40.0M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$81.6M (≈ $56.8M) · P/S ratio 4.44 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.3700 · Net margin −203% · Return on equity −41.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.2% · Operating margin −177% · Revenue (TTM) A$19.7M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 31% fair-value upside, at −75%, LRK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.1275Fair Value A$0.1870BullA$0.2380
Price A$0.7600 · Upside -75.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count. About 55 is the average of all stocks. The price trend (here 50) does not count.
Profitability3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Financial strength78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.12/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +124.1% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.6% (2021) → −104.0% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 92 stocks
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Is Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1870 versus a price of A$0.7600, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LRK?
Our model-based fair value for Lark Distilling Co. Ltd is A$0.1870 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.7600.
What is the quality score of LRK?
Lark Distilling Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1870 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1275, optimistic scenario A$0.2380. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lark Distilling Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1870, about −75% upside versus a price of A$0.7600 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1275, optimistic scenario A$0.2380. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
Lark Distilling Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$19.7M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lark Distilling Co. Ltd it is A$0.1870 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of A$0.7600. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lark Distilling Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, LRK trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.7600, fair value A$0.1870, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LRK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.7600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1870). For Lark Distilling Co. Ltd the two are A$0.5730 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lark Distilling Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Lark Distilling Co. Ltd at about A$81.6M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is A$0.7600; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1870 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LRK?
Our models span a range for Lark Distilling Co. Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1275, base A$0.1870, optimistic A$0.2380 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price A$0.7600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −41.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LRK from its 52-week high?
Lark Distilling Co. Ltd trades at A$0.7600, about 18% below its 52-week high of A$0.9250 and 35% above the low of A$0.5650 (as of Oct 15, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1870 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lark Distilling Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lark Distilling Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price A$0.7600, calculated fair value A$0.1870 (−75%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LRK calculated?
We run Lark Distilling Co. Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1870, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Lark Distilling Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
The closing price on Oct 15, 2026 was A$0.7600. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1870, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lark Distilling Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.2380). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1275 to A$0.2380) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
The market capitalisation of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd is A$81.6M (≈ $56.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd is 4.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
Earnings per share at Lark Distilling Co. Ltd are A$−0.3700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
The net margin of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd is −203% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd is −41.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd is −8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
The operating margin of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd is −177% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
Revenue at Lark Distilling Co. Ltd is growing +22.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK)?
Earnings per share at Lark Distilling Co. Ltd are growing −88.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK) generate?
The free cash flow of Lark Distilling Co. Ltd is −A$7.5M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lark Distilling Co. Ltd (LRK) hold?
Lark Distilling Co. Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$1.4M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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