LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of LyondellBasell Industries NV $24.44, price $58.14, upside -58.0%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.28 – $90.21 · fair‑value band $24.44 – $25.14 · the $58.14 price screens above the $24.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and internationally.
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LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Olefins and Polyolefins"Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins"Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; and Technology. The company produces and markets olefins and co-products, such as ethylene, aromatics, propylene and butadiene; polyolefins; polyethylene; polypropylene homopolymers and copolymers; propylene oxide and derivatives; oxyfuels and related products; and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer and acetyls. It also produces and markets compounding and solutions, including polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, and engineered composites and colors. In addition, it develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies; and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts and serves food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, and paints and coatings applications. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) currently trades at $58.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.44, implying the stock looks roughly 137.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $54.88 per share, and 1 of the 8 models we run sit above the $58.14 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $5.34, and 7 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $24.44 (bear) to $25.14 (bull), the price of $58.14 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
LyondellBasell Industries NV reported revenue of $30.2B in FY2025 versus $46.2B in FY2021, a compound −10.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$743M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $18.8B · P/E ex one-offs 34.2 · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) $−0.8300 · Dividend yield 7.1% · Net margin −2.5% · Return on equity −2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −58%, LYB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($2.63 to $62.91). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $24.44Fair Value $24.44Bull $25.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.27/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−25.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.8% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.6% (2020) → −1.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
0.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.0% a year for the price and −2.3% for the forecasts.
Compare LyondellBasell Industries NV with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 715 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−58.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets4.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−1.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.20× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.86× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.60× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF48.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.53× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)99· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)40· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.44 versus a price of $58.14, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LYB?
Our model-based fair value for LyondellBasell Industries NV is $24.44 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $58.14.
What is the quality score of LYB?
LyondellBasell Industries NV has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.44 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.44, optimistic scenario $25.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the LyondellBasell Industries NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.44, about −58% upside versus a price of $58.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $24.44, optimistic scenario $25.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
LyondellBasell Industries NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $31.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does LyondellBasell Industries NV pay a dividend?
LyondellBasell Industries NV currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, LyondellBasell Industries NV would have to grow free cash flow by +29.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LYB use?
Our models discount LyondellBasell Industries NV at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For LyondellBasell Industries NV that is +29.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at LyondellBasell Industries NV grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies +29.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into LyondellBasell Industries NV (+29.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.04 %: that much free cash flow LyondellBasell Industries NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LyondellBasell Industries NV it is $24.44 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $58.14. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is LyondellBasell Industries NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, LYB trades above its calculated fair value: price $58.14, fair value $24.44, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LYB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($58.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.44). For LyondellBasell Industries NV the two are $33.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LyondellBasell Industries NV worth?
The market values LyondellBasell Industries NV at about $18.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $58.14; our models calculate a fair value of $24.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LYB?
Our models span a range for LyondellBasell Industries NV: cautious scenario $24.44, base $24.44, optimistic $25.14 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $58.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of LYB?
The PEG ratio of LyondellBasell Industries NV is 1.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
Balance-sheet figures for LyondellBasell Industries NV (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −2.3%, debt of 1.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LYB from its 52-week high?
LyondellBasell Industries NV trades at $58.14, about 29% below its 52-week high of $81.53 and 44% above the low of $40.28 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to LyondellBasell Industries NV?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LyondellBasell Industries NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $58.14, calculated fair value $24.44 (−58%), Quality Score 40/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LYB calculated?
We run LyondellBasell Industries NV through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $24.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. LyondellBasell Industries NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $58.14. Our model-based fair value is $24.44, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LyondellBasell Industries NV right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band ($24.44 to $25.14), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) come from?
Earnings per share at LyondellBasell Industries NV grew −5.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.9 %, EBIT margin −10.8 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of LyondellBasell Industries NV
How large is the market capitalisation of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
The market capitalisation of LyondellBasell Industries NV is $18.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of LyondellBasell Industries NV is 34.2 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LyondellBasell Industries NV is 0.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
Earnings per share at LyondellBasell Industries NV are $−0.8300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
The dividend yield of LyondellBasell Industries NV is 7.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
The net margin of LyondellBasell Industries NV is −2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LyondellBasell Industries NV is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LyondellBasell Industries NV is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
The operating margin of LyondellBasell Industries NV is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
Revenue at LyondellBasell Industries NV is growing +19.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
Earnings per share at LyondellBasell Industries NV are growing +396% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) carry?
The net debt of LyondellBasell Industries NV is $12.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 32.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026