MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of MEC Company Ltd. $20.13, price $47.16, upside -57.3%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
38‑month range $16.62 – $67.39 · fair‑value band $11.88 – $33.44 · the $47.16 price screens above the $20.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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MEC Company Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of chemicals, equipment, and related materials for the production of printed circuit boards in Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Thailand, and Europe.
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MEC Company Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of chemicals, equipment, and related materials for the production of printed circuit boards in Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Thailand, and Europe. It offers various chemicals for electronic substrates, such as roughening type adhesion enhancement; rolled annealed copper roughening treatment; pre-lamination treatment of multilayer substrates and adhesion enhancement for high-frequency substrates; anisotropic etching and seed layer etching; copper surface treatment for CO2 laser direct drilling; degreasing, rust removal, and temporary anti-tarnish; other metal surface treatment; DFR pre-treatment; microetching; etch down; and various residue removal treatments. The company also provides AMALPHA, a metal surface treatment technology for direct metal and resin bonding. MEC Company Ltd. was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in Amagasaki, Japan.
Stock analysis
MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF) currently trades at $47.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.13, 57.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $31.93 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $47.16 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.15, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.88 (bear) to $33.44 (bull), the price of $47.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
MEC Company Ltd. reported revenue of ¥20.9B in FY2025 versus ¥15.0B in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥5.0B in FY2025, compounding +14.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $861M · P/E ratio 21.6 · P/S ratio 5.19 · EPS (TTM) $2.18 · Net margin 24.0% · Return on equity 19.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.7% · Operating margin 31.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −57%, MECGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.88Fair Value $20.13Bull $33.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 27%
2025 sits 122% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+48.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +45.4% a year for the price and +15.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 707 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−57.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)25.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth30.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)63.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.42× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)5.58× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF111.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)78· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MEC Company Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MECGF
Frequently asked questions
Is MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.13 versus a price of $47.16, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MECGF?
Our model-based fair value for MEC Company Ltd. is $20.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $47.16.
What is the quality score of MECGF?
MEC Company Ltd. has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.88, optimistic scenario $33.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MEC Company Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.13, about −57% upside versus a price of $47.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.88, optimistic scenario $33.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
MEC Company Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥24.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MEC Company Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +48.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MECGF use?
Our models discount MEC Company Ltd. at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MEC Company Ltd. that is +48.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MEC Company Ltd. grew +11.9 % a year. The price currently implies +48.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MEC Company Ltd. (+48.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.89 %: that much free cash flow MEC Company Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MEC Company Ltd. it is $20.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $47.16. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MEC Company Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MECGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $47.16, fair value $20.13, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MECGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($47.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.13). For MEC Company Ltd. the two are $27.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MEC Company Ltd. worth?
The market values MEC Company Ltd. at about $861M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $47.16; our models calculate a fair value of $20.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MECGF?
Our models span a range for MEC Company Ltd.: cautious scenario $11.88, base $20.13, optimistic $33.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $47.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MECGF?
MEC Company Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.4, P/S 5.6, EV/EBITDA 15.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for MEC Company Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 19.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MECGF from its 52-week high?
MEC Company Ltd. trades at $47.16, about 30% below its 52-week high of $67.39 and 95% above the low of $24.15 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MEC Company Ltd.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MEC Company Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $47.16, calculated fair value $20.13 (−57%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MECGF calculated?
We run MEC Company Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. MEC Company Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $47.16. Our model-based fair value is $20.13, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MEC Company Ltd. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($11.88 to $33.44). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of MEC Company Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
The market capitalisation of MEC Company Ltd. is $861M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MEC Company Ltd. is 5.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
Earnings per share at MEC Company Ltd. are $2.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
The net margin of MEC Company Ltd. is 24.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MEC Company Ltd. is 19.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MEC Company Ltd. is 13.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
The operating margin of MEC Company Ltd. is 31.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
Revenue at MEC Company Ltd. is growing +30.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MEC Company Ltd. (MECGF)?
Earnings per share at MEC Company Ltd. are growing +8.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026