MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of MGP Ingredients Inc $34.16, price $12.74, upside +168.1%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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MGP Ingredients Inc
MGPI · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.74 – $120.45 · fair‑value band $21.45 – $49.86 · the $12.74 price screens below the $34.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Company profile
MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients worldwide. It operates in three segments: Distillery Solutions, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions.
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MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients worldwide. It operates in three segments: Distillery Solutions, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions. The Distillery Solutions segment processes corn and other grains, including rye, barley, wheat, barley malt, and milo into food grade alcohol and distillery co-products, such as dried distillers' grain; and offers food-grade alcohol for beverage applications, that include bourbon, rye, and other whiskeys, as well as grain neutral spirits, including vodka and gin. This segment also offers warehouse services, including barrel put away, barrel storage, and barrel retrieval services; and blending services. The Branded Spirits segment provides Tequila under the premium plus, ultra-premium, super premium, premium price tiers under the Penelope Bourbon, Yellowstone Bourbon, Rebel Bourbon, Remus Bourbon, Blood Oath Bourbon, Ezra Brooks Bourbon, Minor Case Straight Rye Whiskey, Rossville Union Straight Rye Whiskey, The Quiet Man Irish Whiskey, Green Hat Gin, Everclear grain alcohol, El Mayor Tequila, and Dos Primos names; mid branded spirits under the Brady's Irish Cream, Saint Brendan's Irish Cream Liqueur, Pearl Vodka, Lord Calvert Canadian Whisky, and Exotico Tequila names; and value branded spirits under the Arrow Cordials, Canada House Canadian Whisky, Lady Bligh Rum, and Juarez Tequila names, as well as private label products. The Ingredient Solutions segment provides specialty wheat starches for food applications, such as Fibersym, a resistant wheat starch; specialty wheat proteins for food applications under the Arise and Proterra names; gluten-free textured pea and soy proteins; commodity wheat starch for food and non-food applications; and commodity wheat proteins. It sells its products directly or through distributors to manufacturers and processors of finished packaged goods or to bakeries. The company was founded in 1941 and is based in Atchison, Kansas.
Stock analysis
MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI) currently trades at $12.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.16, implying the stock looks roughly 62.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $31.58 per share, and 7 of the 9 models we run sit above the $12.74 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.42, and 2 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $21.45 (bear) to $49.86 (bull), the price of $12.74 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
MGP Ingredients Inc reported revenue of $536M in FY2025 versus $627M in FY2021, a compound −3.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$108M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $351M · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) $−11.17 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin −20.1% · Return on equity −34.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% · Operating margin 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 168%, MGPI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 9 models by family
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
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Compare MGP Ingredients Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 98 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,237 | ¥1,653 | +34% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥70.54 | ¥77.59 | +10% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥113.20 | ¥209.69 | +85% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥71.48 | ¥149.17 | +109% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €59.58 | €56.69 | −5% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4350 SGD | 0.7300 SGD | +68% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.35 | ¥24.22 | −37% |
| Davide Campari-Milano N.V CPR | €6.08 | €4.53 | −25% |
| Radico Khaitan Limited RADICO | ₹4,602 | ₹947.44 | −79% |
| Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co 603369 | ¥27.26 | ¥38.66 | +42% |
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