MGP Ingredients, Inc (MGPI) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $351M
MGP Ingredients, Inc
MGPI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price +6.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 49% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($14.74 to $37.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.76 – $120.45 · fair‑value band $14.74 – $37.33 · the $17.53 price screens below the $26.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
MGP Ingredients, Inc (MGPI) currently trades at $17.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.04, implying the stock looks roughly 48.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, MGP Ingredients, Inc generated revenue of $521M at a net margin of -46.0%. Revenue declined 12.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -34.1%. Net debt stands at $248M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.74 (bear case) to $37.33 (bull case); at $17.53, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 49%, MGPI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($30.47) versus Dividend Discount ($5.42). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients worldwide. It operates in three segments: Distillery Solutions, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions.
Full company description
MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients worldwide. It operates in three segments: Distillery Solutions, Branded Spirits, and Ingredient Solutions. The Distillery Solutions segment processes corn and other grains, including rye, barley, wheat, barley malt, and milo into food grade alcohol and distillery co-products, such as dried distillers' grain; and offers food-grade alcohol for beverage applications, that include bourbon, rye, and other whiskeys, as well as grain neutral spirits, including vodka and gin. This segment also offers warehouse services, including barrel put away, barrel storage, and barrel retrieval services; and blending services. The Branded Spirits segment provides Tequila under the premium plus, ultra-premium, super premium, premium price tiers under the Penelope Bourbon, Yellowstone Bourbon, Rebel Bourbon, Remus Bourbon, Blood Oath Bourbon, Ezra Brooks Bourbon, Minor Case Straight Rye Whiskey, Rossville Union Straight Rye Whiskey, The Quiet Man Irish Whiskey, Green Hat Gin, Everclear grain alcohol, El Mayor Tequila, and Dos Primos names; mid branded spirits under the Brady's Irish Cream, Saint Brendan's Irish Cream Liqueur, Pearl Vodka, Lord Calvert Canadian Whisky, and Exotico Tequila names; and value branded spirits under the Arrow Cordials, Canada House Canadian Whisky, Lady Bligh Rum, and Juarez Tequila names, as well as private label products. The Ingredient Solutions segment provides specialty wheat starches for food applications, such as Fibersym, a resistant wheat starch; specialty wheat proteins for food applications under the Arise and Proterra names; gluten-free textured pea and soy proteins; commodity wheat starch for food and non-food applications; and commodity wheat proteins. It sells its products directly or through distributors to manufacturers and processors of finished packaged goods or to bakeries. The company was founded in 1941 and is based in Atchison, Kansas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MGP Ingredients, Inc reported revenue of $536M in FY2025 versus $627M in FY2021, a compound −3.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$108M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +10.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch MGPI: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MGP (MGPI) Q2 Earnings Top Estimates
- MGP Ingredients hires clutch of industry veterans in bid to spur growth
- MGP Ingredients to Report Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results on Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,251 | ¥1,238 | -1% |
| Diageo plc DEON | 1,487 MXN | 1,239 MXN | -17% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥73.69 | ¥48.44 | -34% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥110.50 | ¥185.80 | +68% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €65.24 | €76.68 | +18% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥83.12 | ¥149.17 | +79% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.60 | $28.15 | +6% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,376 | ₹440.56 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4450 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +55% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.08 | ¥27.82 | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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