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Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd stock A$0.12, price A$0.30, that is 59.3% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU000000MGX7

MG Mount Gibson Iron Ltd logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Mount Gibson Iron Ltd

MGX · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 59% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 40/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −7.9 %/yr in AUD)
Revenue last quarter 67% below a year ago.
Fair value A$0.1200 · Strongly overvalued
Loss-making · -14.8% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/11)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.7400 A$0.2600 Fair Value A$0.1200 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.2600 – A$0.7400 · fair‑value band A$0.1200 – A$0.1400 · the A$0.2950 price screens above the A$0.1200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

MGX Resources Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, processing, shipment, export, and sale of hematite iron ore in Australia and China. Its flagship project is the Koolan Island mine site located in the Kimberley region of Western Australia.

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The company is also involved in the treasury management, mineral resources acquisition, and investment activities. The company was formerly known as Mount Gibson Iron Limited and changed its name to MGX Resources Limited in November 2025.

The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX) currently trades at A$0.2950, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1200, 59% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.1200 (bear) to A$0.1400 (bull), the price of A$0.2950 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2017: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2017.

Mount Gibson Iron Ltd reported revenue of A$199M in FY2026 versus A$186M in FY2022, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$30.2M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$344M (≈ $237M) Micro · P/S ratio 1.71 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0300 · Net margin −14.8% · Return on equity −6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −16.7% · Revenue (TTM) A$204M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −59%, MGX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.1200 Fair Value A$0.1200 Bull A$0.1400
Price A$0.2950 · Downside -59.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA A$0.0600 A$0.0600 A$0.0700 67
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1900 A$0.2900 A$0.3600 55
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA A$0.0600 A$0.0600 A$0.0700 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1900 A$0.2900 A$0.3600 55

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 4
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 4
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 58
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 76
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 59
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 23
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 8
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 96
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2017: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2017.
Revenue growth 1 year
−39.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
33.0% (2021) → −9.9% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

MGX screens overvalued: fair value 59% below the price. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 410 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −59.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −14.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −16.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −66.6% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.81× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.69× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.10× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥6.11 ¥8.07 +32% vs MGX
POSCO Holdings 005490 265,000 KRW 240,001 KRW −9% vs MGX
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹186.30 ₹148.06 −21% vs MGX
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,357 ₹1,029 −24% vs MGX
ArcelorMittal S.A MT €54.82 €36.18 −34% vs MGX
Reliance, Inc RS $417.00 $211.54 −49% vs MGX
Nucor Corporation NUE $244.97 $116.49 −52% vs MGX
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,165 ₹516.03 −56% vs MGX
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $222.90 $89.54 −60% vs MGX
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 ¥1.99 ¥0.5400 −73% vs MGX

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Mount Gibson Iron Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mount Gibson Iron Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGX

Frequently asked questions

Is Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1200 versus a price of A$0.2950, about 59% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MGX?
Our model-based fair value for Mount Gibson Iron Ltd is A$0.1200 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2950.
What is the quality score of MGX?
Mount Gibson Iron Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1200 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1200, optimistic scenario A$0.1400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mount Gibson Iron Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1200, about 59% lower versus a price of A$0.2950 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1200, optimistic scenario A$0.1400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
Mount Gibson Iron Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$204M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mount Gibson Iron Ltd it is A$0.1200 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of A$0.2950. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Mount Gibson Iron Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MGX trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.2950, fair value A$0.1200, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2950); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1200). For Mount Gibson Iron Ltd the two are A$0.1750 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mount Gibson Iron Ltd worth?
The market values Mount Gibson Iron Ltd at about A$344M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2950; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGX?
Our models span a range for Mount Gibson Iron Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1200, base A$0.1200, optimistic A$0.1400 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price A$0.2950). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of MGX?
The PEG ratio of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd is 0.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −6.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGX from its 52-week high?
Mount Gibson Iron Ltd trades at A$0.2950, about 40% below its 52-week high of A$0.4900 and 4% above the low of A$0.2850 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mount Gibson Iron Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mount Gibson Iron Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price A$0.2950, calculated fair value A$0.1200 (−59%), Quality Score 40/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGX calculated?
We run Mount Gibson Iron Ltd through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.1200 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mount Gibson Iron Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.2950. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1200, about 59% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mount Gibson Iron Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
The market capitalisation of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd is A$344M (≈ $237M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd is 1.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
Earnings per share at Mount Gibson Iron Ltd are A$−0.0300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
The net margin of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd is −14.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd is −6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
The operating margin of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd is −16.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
Revenue at Mount Gibson Iron Ltd is growing −66.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −24.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX)?
Earnings per share at Mount Gibson Iron Ltd are growing +17.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX) generate?
The free cash flow of Mount Gibson Iron Ltd is −A$30.9M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Mount Gibson Iron Ltd (MGX) hold?
Mount Gibson Iron Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$49.1M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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