Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG €7.49, price €4.28, upside +74.9%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.98 – €10.66 · fair‑value band €5.62 – €9.36 · the €4.28 price screens below the €7.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Müller - Die lila Logistik SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in Germany and internationally. It operates through Lila Operating and Lila Real Estate segments. The company offers logistics solutions, such as delivery, warehousing, and assembling.
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Müller - Die lila Logistik SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in Germany and internationally. It operates through Lila Operating and Lila Real Estate segments. The company offers logistics solutions, such as delivery, warehousing, and assembling. It also provides real estate space for the provision of services; and distribution, management, and leasing of owned properties and investments, such as office space, outdoor areas, and parking spaces. The company serves automotive, medical, pharma, electronics books and media, consumer e-commerce, industrial defense, and security industries. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Besigheim, Germany.
Stock analysis
Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL) currently trades at €4.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.49, implying the stock looks roughly 42.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €33.96 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the €4.28 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €1.40, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €5.62 (bear) to €9.36 (bull), the price of €4.28 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Müller - Die lila Logistik AG reported revenue of €250M in FY2025 versus €135M in FY2021, a compound +16.7%/yr. Reported net income was €4.3M in FY2025, compounding −19.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €34.1M · P/E ratio 7.9 · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) €0.5400 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 75%, MLL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €5.62Fair Value €7.49Bull €9.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2864 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9% vs 4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 4%
Compare Müller - Die lila Logistik AG with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Müller - Die lila Logistik AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MLL
Frequently asked questions
Is Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.49 versus a price of €4.28, about +75% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MLL?
Our model-based fair value for Müller - Die lila Logistik AG is €7.49 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.28.
What is the quality score of MLL?
Müller - Die lila Logistik AG has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €7.49 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.62, optimistic scenario €9.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Müller - Die lila Logistik AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €7.49, about +75% upside versus a price of €4.28 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €5.62, optimistic scenario €9.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
Müller - Die lila Logistik AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €250M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Müller - Die lila Logistik AG pay a dividend?
Müller - Die lila Logistik AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Müller - Die lila Logistik AG it is €7.49 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €4.28. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Müller - Die lila Logistik AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MLL trades below its calculated fair value: price €4.28, fair value €7.49, a gap of about +75% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MLL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€7.49). For Müller - Die lila Logistik AG the two are €3.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Müller - Die lila Logistik AG worth?
The market values Müller - Die lila Logistik AG at about €34.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €4.28; our models calculate a fair value of €7.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MLL?
Our models span a range for Müller - Die lila Logistik AG: cautious scenario €5.62, base €7.49, optimistic €9.36 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €4.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MLL?
Müller - Die lila Logistik AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €7.49 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 40.2, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
What is the PEG ratio of MLL?
The PEG ratio of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG is 40.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 0.96 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MLL from its 52-week high?
Müller - Die lila Logistik AG trades at €4.28, about 19% below its 52-week high of €5.30 and 5% above the low of €4.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €7.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Müller - Die lila Logistik AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Müller - Die lila Logistik AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €4.28, calculated fair value €7.49 (+75%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MLL calculated?
We run Müller - Die lila Logistik AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €7.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Müller - Die lila Logistik AG currently trades 75 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €4.28. Our model-based fair value is €7.49, about +75% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Müller - Die lila Logistik AG right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€5.62). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL) come from?
Earnings per share at Müller - Die lila Logistik AG grew +1.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.7 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
The market capitalisation of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG is €34.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG is 0.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
Earnings per share at Müller - Die lila Logistik AG are €0.5400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
The dividend yield of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG is 3.5% (payout 27.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
The net margin of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
The operating margin of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
Revenue at Müller - Die lila Logistik AG is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL)?
Earnings per share at Müller - Die lila Logistik AG are growing +31.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL) generate?
The free cash flow of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG is €29.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Müller - Die lila Logistik AG (MLL) carry?
The net debt of Müller - Die lila Logistik AG is €98.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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