Müller - Die lila Logistik SE (MLL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · DE · Market cap €36.4M
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from €9.20 to €7.49 (−18.6%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +4.8% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 56% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€5.62). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.98 – €10.66 · fair‑value band €5.62 – €9.36 · the €4.80 price screens below the €7.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Müller - Die lila Logistik SE (MLL) currently trades at €4.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.49, implying the stock looks roughly 56.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Müller - Die lila Logistik SE generated revenue of €250M at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue grew 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.1%. Net debt stands at €98.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €5.62 (bear case) to €9.36 (bull case); at €4.80, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at 56%, MLL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€25.78) versus Dividend Discount (€1.03). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Müller - Die lila Logistik SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in Germany and internationally. It operates through Lila Operating and Lila Real Estate segments. The company offers logistics solutions, such as delivery, warehousing, and assembling.
Full company description
Müller - Die lila Logistik SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in Germany and internationally. It operates through Lila Operating and Lila Real Estate segments. The company offers logistics solutions, such as delivery, warehousing, and assembling. It also provides real estate space for the provision of services; and distribution, management, and leasing of owned properties and investments, such as office space, outdoor areas, and parking spaces. The company serves automotive, medical, pharma, electronics books and media, consumer e-commerce, industrial defense, and security industries. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Besigheim, Germany.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Müller - Die lila Logistik SE reported revenue of €250M in FY2025 versus €135M in FY2021, a compound +16.7%/yr. Reported net income was €4.3M in FY2025, compounding −19.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $117.72 | $104.58 | -11% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $314.69 | $347.68 | +10% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €57.22 | €53.18 | -7% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,660 | kr 712.57 | -57% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $291.41 | $133.80 | -54% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥31.91 | ¥48.64 | +52% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $193.50 | $86.56 | -55% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $172.02 | $115.95 | -33% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$181.40 | HK$241.93 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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