Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Mennica Polska S.A. PLN 34.25, price PLN 38.80, upside -11.7%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 13.48 PLN – 51.80 PLN · fair‑value band 21.98 PLN – 46.45 PLN · the 38.80 PLN price screens above the 34.25 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Mennica Polska S.A. engages in the manufacture and distribution of minting and engraved/medallist products in Poland and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Mint Products, Electronic Payments, and Real Estate Development.
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Mennica Polska S.A. engages in the manufacture and distribution of minting and engraved/medallist products in Poland and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Mint Products, Electronic Payments, and Real Estate Development. It produces and sells mint products, including circulation and collector coins; gold and silver investment products comprising bars and bullion coins; tokens and other mint products; and engraved/medallist products, such as medals, decorations, stamps, seals, date stamps, and hallmarks, as well as engages in the marketing and sale activities relating to the promotion and distribution of collector coins, numismatic products, and investment products consist of gold bars and bullion coins. It is also involved in electronic payments, including operation of city card systems, sale of public transport and railway tickets, prepaid cards, maintenance services, and sale of technical equipment. In addition, the company delivers real estate development projects, and leases office and warehouse spaces. It serves foreign issuers, domestic and foreign distributors of mint products, collectors, investors, and corporations interested in token products; local governments operating public transport, railway companies, and private individuals; and institutional customers and natural persons. Mennica Polska S.A. was founded in 1766 and is based in Warsaw, Poland.
Stock analysis
Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC) currently trades at 38.80 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 34.25 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 13.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 172.72 PLN per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the 38.80 PLN price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 12.76 PLN, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 21.98 PLN (bear) to 46.45 PLN (bull), the price of 38.80 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Mennica Polska S.A. reported revenue of 1.8B PLN in FY2025 versus 1.3B PLN in FY2021, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was 498M PLN in FY2025, compounding +54.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.0B PLN (≈ $515M) · P/E ratio 4.1 · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) 9.53 PLN · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 27.3% · Return on equity 38.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −12%, MNC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 21.98 PLNFair Value 34.25 PLNBull 46.45 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (5.87 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +9.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.47% vs 30%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 540% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 259 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−12% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)38% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth80% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mennica Polska S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MNC
Frequently asked questions
Is Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 34.25 PLN versus a price of 38.80 PLN, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MNC?
Our model-based fair value for Mennica Polska S.A. is 34.25 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 38.80 PLN.
What is the quality score of MNC?
Mennica Polska S.A. has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 34.25 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 21.98 PLN, optimistic scenario 46.45 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mennica Polska S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 34.25 PLN, about −12% upside versus a price of 38.80 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 21.98 PLN, optimistic scenario 46.45 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
Mennica Polska S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Mennica Polska S.A. pay a dividend?
Mennica Polska S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.87% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mennica Polska S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -7.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MNC use?
Our models discount Mennica Polska S.A. at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mennica Polska S.A. that is -7.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mennica Polska S.A. grew +14.1 % a year. The price currently implies -7.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mennica Polska S.A. (-7.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.68 %: that much free cash flow Mennica Polska S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mennica Polska S.A. it is 34.25 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 38.80 PLN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mennica Polska S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MNC trades above its calculated fair value: price 38.80 PLN, fair value 34.25 PLN, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MNC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (38.80 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (34.25 PLN). For Mennica Polska S.A. the two are 4.55 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mennica Polska S.A. worth?
The market values Mennica Polska S.A. at about 2.0B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 38.80 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 34.25 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MNC?
Our models span a range for Mennica Polska S.A.: cautious scenario 21.98 PLN, base 34.25 PLN, optimistic 46.45 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 38.80 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MNC?
Mennica Polska S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 34.25 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 2.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mennica Polska S.A. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 38.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MNC from its 52-week high?
Mennica Polska S.A. trades at 38.80 PLN, about 25% below its 52-week high of 51.80 PLN and 27% above the low of 30.54 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 34.25 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mennica Polska S.A.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mennica Polska S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 38.80 PLN, calculated fair value 34.25 PLN (−12%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MNC calculated?
We run Mennica Polska S.A. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 34.25 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Mennica Polska S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 38.80 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 34.25 PLN, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mennica Polska S.A. right now?
A fairly wide model range (21.98 PLN to 46.45 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC) come from?
Earnings per share at Mennica Polska S.A. grew +23.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin +3.8 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +11.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mennica Polska S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
The market capitalisation of Mennica Polska S.A. is 2.0B PLN (≈ $515M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mennica Polska S.A. is 1.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
Earnings per share at Mennica Polska S.A. are 9.53 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
The dividend yield of Mennica Polska S.A. is 3.9% (payout 15.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
The net margin of Mennica Polska S.A. is 27.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mennica Polska S.A. is 38.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mennica Polska S.A. is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
The operating margin of Mennica Polska S.A. is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
Revenue at Mennica Polska S.A. is growing +80.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC)?
Earnings per share at Mennica Polska S.A. are growing −31.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mennica Polska S.A. (MNC) carry?
The net debt of Mennica Polska S.A. is 104M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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