Meridian Holdings (MRDN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $181M
Meridian Holdings
MRDN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +2.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.07 – $168.00 · fair‑value band $7.19 – $12.22 · the $14.42 price screens above the $9.71 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Meridian Holdings (MRDN) currently trades at $14.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.71, implying the stock looks roughly 32.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Meridian Holdings generated revenue of $190M at a net margin of -45.9%. Revenue grew 17.3% year over year. Net debt stands at $5.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.19 (bear case) to $12.22 (bull case); at $14.42, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 149% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -33%, MRDN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($18.02) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Meridian Holdings Inc., a business-to-business and business-to-consumer gaming technology company, provides casino, sportsbook, and competition products in Central and South America, Europe, and Africa.
Full company description
Meridian Holdings Inc., a business-to-business and business-to-consumer gaming technology company, provides casino, sportsbook, and competition products in Central and South America, Europe, and Africa. It develops and licenses gaming platforms; and provides online sports betting and gaming operations under various brands, including Meridianbet, Expanse Studios, MexPlay, R Kings Competitions, Classics For A Cause, and GMAG. Meridian Holdings Inc. is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Meridian Holdings reported revenue of $183M in FY2025 versus $60.4M in FY2021, a compound +31.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$89.9M in FY2025.
MRDN screens 33% overvalued. Compare with Flutter Entertainment plc →
Peer Group
Gambling · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT | $110.66 | $88.33 | -20% |
| Evolution AB EVO | kr 684.00 | kr 974.80 | +43% |
| The Lottery Corporation TLC | A$5.62 | A$2.99 | -47% |
| Super Group SGHC | $14.73 | $9.39 | -36% |
| Lottomatica Group LTMC | €25.62 | €16.38 | -36% |
| Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO | $78.94 | $70.17 | -11% |
| Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN | $83.95 | $94.74 | +13% |
| FDJ United FDJ | €23.24 | €20.97 | -10% |
| Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL | $10.71 | $17.61 | +64% |
| Tabcorp Holdings TAH | A$0.8750 | A$0.3700 | -58% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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