Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Meridian Holdings Inc stock $14.96, price $8.68, upside +72.4%, quality 29 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.07 – $112.20 · fair‑value band $10.05 – $22.70 · the $8.68 price screens below the $14.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Meridian Holdings Inc., a business-to-business and business-to-consumer gaming technology company, provides casino, sportsbook, and competition products in Central and South America, Europe, and Africa.
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It develops and licenses gaming platforms; and provides online sports betting and gaming operations under various brands, including Meridianbet, Expanse Studios, MexPlay, R Kings Competitions, Classics For A Cause, and GMAG. Meridian Holdings Inc. is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock analysis
Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN) currently trades at $8.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.96, implying the stock looks roughly 42% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $18.98 per share, and 9 of the 10 models we run sit above the $8.68 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $11.04, and 1 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $10.05 (bear) to $22.70 (bull), the price of $8.68 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Meridian Holdings Inc reported revenue of $183M in FY2025 versus $60.4M in FY2021, a compound +31.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$89.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $111M Micro · P/S ratio 0.59 · EPS (TTM) $−7.17 · Net margin −41.4% · Return on equity −95.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 4.9% · Revenue (TTM) $197M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 72%, MRDN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.05Fair Value $14.96Bull$22.70
Price $8.68 · Upside +72.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$13.25$17.22$28.5875
Growth DCF$12.52$18.04$26.7173
5Y EBITDA Exit$10.99$16.64$27.6568
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$13.25$17.22$28.5875
5Y Revenue Exit$11.46$17.60$30.3566
5Y EBITDA Exit$10.99$16.64$27.6568
10Y Revenue Exit$11.86$21.15$26.2363
10Y EBITDA Exit$11.82$20.35$34.0662
Multiples
EV/EBITDA$7.76$10.49$13.2164
EV/Revenue$7.98$11.58$15.1851
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.4600$0.6100$0.920051
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$12.52$18.04$26.7173
Rev-Margin DCF$12.43$19.92$35.6365
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleAnthony Brian GoodmanFormer Director and CEO9× since Nov 24, 2025: 311,352 shares, avg. $4.31$1.3MJun 23, 2026
SaleLuxor Capital LLCGreater than 10% filing group5× since Mar 25, 2026: 65,190 shares, avg. $7.91$515,907May 4, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+71.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+103.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+175.5%
’16
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.6% (2020) → −2.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.8% a year for the price and +7.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 45 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+72.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−76.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−41.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)4.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.1% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.38× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.56× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.5× · Cheaper than median
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Is Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.96 versus a price of $8.68, about +72% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MRDN?
Our model-based fair value for Meridian Holdings Inc is $14.96 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.68.
What is the quality score of MRDN?
Meridian Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.96 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.05, optimistic scenario $22.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Meridian Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.96, about +72% upside versus a price of $8.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.05, optimistic scenario $22.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
Meridian Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $197M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Meridian Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Meridian Holdings Inc does not currently pay a dividend.
What growth is priced into Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Meridian Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +4.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +103.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MRDN use?
Our models discount Meridian Holdings Inc at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.68, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Meridian Holdings Inc that is +4.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Meridian Holdings Inc grew +103.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Meridian Holdings Inc (+4.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.57 %: that much free cash flow Meridian Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Meridian Holdings Inc it is $14.96 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $8.68. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Meridian Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MRDN trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.68, fair value $14.96, a gap of about +72% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRDN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.96). For Meridian Holdings Inc the two are $6.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Meridian Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Meridian Holdings Inc at about $111M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $8.68; our models calculate a fair value of $14.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRDN?
Our models span a range for Meridian Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $10.05, base $14.96, optimistic $22.70 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $8.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Meridian Holdings Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −95.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRDN from its 52-week high?
Meridian Holdings Inc trades at $8.68, about 41% below its 52-week high of $14.72 and 43% above the low of $6.07 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Meridian Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Meridian Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $8.68, calculated fair value $14.96 (+72%), Quality Score 29/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRDN calculated?
We run Meridian Holdings Inc through 10 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $14.96 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Meridian Holdings Inc currently trades 42% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $8.68. Our model-based fair value is $14.96, about +72% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Meridian Holdings Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (29/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($10.05). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($10.05 to $22.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Meridian Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
The market capitalisation of Meridian Holdings Inc is $111M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Meridian Holdings Inc is 0.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
Earnings per share at Meridian Holdings Inc are $−7.17. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
The net margin of Meridian Holdings Inc is −41.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Meridian Holdings Inc is −95.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Meridian Holdings Inc is 13.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
The operating margin of Meridian Holdings Inc is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN)?
Revenue at Meridian Holdings Inc is growing +16.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +71.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Meridian Holdings Inc (MRDN) carry?
The net debt of Meridian Holdings Inc is $5.3M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026