Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 20, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Micro Systemation AB (publ) stock SEK 102, price SEK 109, upside -6.8%, quality 79 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 30.34 – kr 109.00 · fair‑value band kr 72.11 – kr 133.35 · the kr 109.00 price screens above the kr 101.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Micro Systemation AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides forensic technology for mobile device examination and analysis in Sweden and internationally.
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The company offers XRY software products that include XRY logical, a software solution that enables investigators to access and recover live and file system data from the device on the crime scene; XRY Physical, a software solution, which is used for the physical recovery of data from mobile devices; XRY Pro, a full toolkit for extraction and decryption of secure devices; XRY Cloud to recover data beyond the mobile devices; XRY Pro Express for extractions; XRY Kiosk for whom data recovery and analysis; XRY Tablet, which is designed for frontline operational users for whom data recovery and analysis; XRY Express, which delivers a simplified and locked down workflow for easy mobile device extractions.
It also provides XAMN Viewer, an analysis tool to open, view, analyze, and/or report on mobile device data; XAMN Pro, a tool that helps the user find and analyze data; XEC Director, which is used to manage forensic mobile operations; UNIFY Collaborate which meets the demands of growing digital investigations, enhancing efficiency, and security; and XEC Export, a tool designed for batch export services.
In addition, the company offers UNIFY Collaborate, which allows multiple investigators to work on the same case simultaneously; mobile forensics platforms for computers and touchscreen interfaces, as well as implementation, training, and support services.
Its products are used by law enforcement, corrections, border control, military, and eDiscovery sectors. Micro Systemation AB (publ) was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B) currently trades at kr 109.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 101.64, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 77.03 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 109.00 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 18.64, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 72.11 (bear) to kr 133.35 (bull), the price of kr 109.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Micro Systemation AB (publ) reported revenue of 462M SEK in FY2025 versus 333M SEK in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was 49.2M SEK in FY2025, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.0B SEK (≈ $203M) Micro · P/E ratio 24.4 · P/S ratio 3.76 · EPS (TTM) kr 3.76 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 13.7% · Return on equity 59.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −7%, MSAB-B screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 72.11Fair Value kr 101.64Bullkr 133.35
Price kr 109.00 · Upside -6.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.81 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+26.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.8% vs 0.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 15%
2025 sits 65% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.3% a year for the price.
Compare Micro Systemation AB (publ) with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 648 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−2.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)59.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)10.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)52.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Micro Systemation AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSAB-B
Frequently asked questions
Is Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 101.64 versus a price of kr 109.00, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MSAB-B?
Our model-based fair value for Micro Systemation AB (publ) is kr 101.64 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 109.00.
What is the quality score of MSAB-B?
Micro Systemation AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 101.64 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 72.11, optimistic scenario kr 133.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Micro Systemation AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 101.64, about −7% upside versus a price of kr 109.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 72.11, optimistic scenario kr 133.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
Micro Systemation AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 511M SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Micro Systemation AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Micro Systemation AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of 1.38% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Micro Systemation AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +17.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.3 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MSAB-B use?
Our models discount Micro Systemation AB (publ) at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Micro Systemation AB (publ) that is +17.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Micro Systemation AB (publ) grew +8.3 % a year. The price currently implies +17.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Micro Systemation AB (publ) (+17.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.58 %: that much free cash flow Micro Systemation AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Micro Systemation AB (publ) it is kr 101.64 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of kr 109.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Micro Systemation AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, MSAB-B trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 109.00, fair value kr 101.64, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSAB-B?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 109.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 101.64). For Micro Systemation AB (publ) the two are kr 7.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Micro Systemation AB (publ) worth?
The market values Micro Systemation AB (publ) at about 2.0B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is kr 109.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 101.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSAB-B?
Our models span a range for Micro Systemation AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 72.11, base kr 101.64, optimistic kr 133.35 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price kr 109.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSAB-B?
Micro Systemation AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.4 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 101.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 12.8, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 18.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
Balance-sheet figures for Micro Systemation AB (publ) (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 59.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSAB-B from its 52-week high?
Micro Systemation AB (publ) trades at kr 109.00, at its 52-week high of kr 109.00 and 89% above the low of kr 57.54 (as of Oct 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 101.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Micro Systemation AB (publ)?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Micro Systemation AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price kr 109.00, calculated fair value kr 101.64 (−7%), Quality Score 79/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSAB-B calculated?
We run Micro Systemation AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 101.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Micro Systemation AB (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
The closing price on Oct 20, 2026 was kr 109.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 101.64, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Micro Systemation AB (publ) right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (kr 72.11 to kr 133.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B) come from?
Earnings per share at Micro Systemation AB (publ) grew +1.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.6 %, EBIT margin −5.4 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Micro Systemation AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
The market capitalisation of Micro Systemation AB (publ) is 2.0B SEK (≈ $203M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Micro Systemation AB (publ) is 3.76 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
Earnings per share at Micro Systemation AB (publ) are kr 3.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
The dividend yield of Micro Systemation AB (publ) is 1.4% (payout 39.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
The net margin of Micro Systemation AB (publ) is 13.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Micro Systemation AB (publ) is 59.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Micro Systemation AB (publ) is 16.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
The operating margin of Micro Systemation AB (publ) is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
Revenue at Micro Systemation AB (publ) is growing +52.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B)?
Earnings per share at Micro Systemation AB (publ) are growing +28.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Micro Systemation AB (publ) (MSAB-B) hold?
Micro Systemation AB (publ) holds more cash than debt, 143M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026