Neodecortech SpA (NDT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Neodecortech SpA €7.49, price €5.36, upside +39.7%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.31 – €5.64 · fair‑value band €4.75 – €10.28 · the €5.36 price screens below the €7.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Neodecortech S.p.A. produces and markets decorative papers for the industrial sectors of wood and furnishing accessories in Italy, the rest of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, America, and Africa. It operates through Printed Decorative Paper Division, Decorative Paper Division, Guarcino Energy Division, Casoli Energy Division, and NDT China Division segments.
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Neodecortech S.p.A. produces and markets decorative papers for the industrial sectors of wood and furnishing accessories in Italy, the rest of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, America, and Africa. It operates through Printed Decorative Paper Division, Decorative Paper Division, Guarcino Energy Division, Casoli Energy Division, and NDT China Division segments. The company offers decorative papers in various categories, including wood, stones and surfaces, fancies and textiles, and flooring. It also engages in the printing and impregnation of paper; printing and finishing of thermoplastic films; and provision of laminate products. In addition, the company owns and operates electrical and thermal energy plants. It sells its products under the Confalonieri, Texte, and Plana brands. The company was formerly known as Confalonieri S.p.A. and changed its name to Neodecortech S.p.A. in July 2017. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Filago, Italy. Neodecortech S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of Finanziaria Valentini S.P.A.
Stock analysis
Neodecortech SpA (NDT) currently trades at €5.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.49, implying the stock looks roughly 28.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €9.10 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the €5.36 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €0.8800, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €4.75 (bear) to €10.28 (bull), the price of €5.36 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Neodecortech SpA reported revenue of €184M in FY2025 versus €179M in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was €7.3M in FY2025, compounding +2.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €74.1M · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) €0.8800 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 4.0% · Return on equity 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 40%, NDT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €4.75Fair Value €7.49Bull €10.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.5360 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +15.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 79% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.8% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 122 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+38% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Neodecortech SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NDT
Frequently asked questions
Is Neodecortech SpA (NDT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.49 versus a price of €5.36, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NDT?
Our model-based fair value for Neodecortech SpA is €7.49 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €5.36.
What is the quality score of NDT?
Neodecortech SpA has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €7.49 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €4.75, optimistic scenario €10.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neodecortech SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €7.49, about +40% upside versus a price of €5.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €4.75, optimistic scenario €10.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
Neodecortech SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €197M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Neodecortech SpA pay a dividend?
Neodecortech SpA currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Neodecortech SpA would have to grow free cash flow by +15.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NDT use?
Our models discount Neodecortech SpA at 14.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Neodecortech SpA that is +15.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Neodecortech SpA (NDT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Neodecortech SpA grew +7.4 % a year. The price currently implies +15.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Neodecortech SpA (NDT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Neodecortech SpA (+15.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.13 %: that much free cash flow Neodecortech SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neodecortech SpA it is €7.49 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €5.36. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Neodecortech SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NDT trades below its calculated fair value: price €5.36, fair value €7.49, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NDT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€5.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€7.49). For Neodecortech SpA the two are €2.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neodecortech SpA worth?
The market values Neodecortech SpA at about €74.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €5.36; our models calculate a fair value of €7.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NDT?
Our models span a range for Neodecortech SpA: cautious scenario €4.75, base €7.49, optimistic €10.28 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €5.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NDT?
Neodecortech SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €7.49 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neodecortech SpA (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.6%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NDT from its 52-week high?
Neodecortech SpA trades at €5.36, about 5% below its 52-week high of €5.64 and 84% above the low of €2.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €7.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Neodecortech SpA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neodecortech SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €5.36, calculated fair value €7.49 (+40%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NDT calculated?
We run Neodecortech SpA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €7.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Neodecortech SpA currently trades 40 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €5.36. Our model-based fair value is €7.49, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neodecortech SpA right now?
Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€4.75 to €10.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Neodecortech SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
The market capitalisation of Neodecortech SpA is €74.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Neodecortech SpA is 0.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
Earnings per share at Neodecortech SpA are €0.8800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
The dividend yield of Neodecortech SpA is 2.8% (payout 17.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
The net margin of Neodecortech SpA is 4.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Neodecortech SpA is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neodecortech SpA is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
The operating margin of Neodecortech SpA is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
Revenue at Neodecortech SpA is growing +10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Neodecortech SpA (NDT)?
Earnings per share at Neodecortech SpA are growing +76.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Neodecortech SpA (NDT) carry?
The net debt of Neodecortech SpA is €30.2M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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