NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. stock $11.23, price $27.33, that is 58.9% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range $7.77 – $27.33 · fair‑value band $7.91 – $19.73 · the $27.33 price screens above the $11.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.
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NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. engages in the cargo transportation businesses in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Transportation, Warehousing, Packaging, and Testing.
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It transports cargo and products to users, such as automobile and motorcycle finished vehicles, auto parts, housing equipment, and agricultural machinery.
The company also provides packaging processing services, including delivery agency and distribution processing of automobile parts, export packaging, and design of packaging specifications, as well as development of packaging materials, such as buckets and trolleys; and installation, assembly, accuracy, operation trying, dismantling, transportation, and integrated domestic and overseas work of machinery and equipment and production lines.
In addition, it provides warehouse business, such as auto parts and precision machinery to housing equipment and food.
Further, the company offers test support services for four and two-wheeler vehicles, automobile parts, general-purpose products, etc.; waste treatment and collection; customs clearance, vehicle repair, and insurance agency services; engages in the real estate sales and leasing, and brokerage management activities, office relocation and moving, system design/development, information systems, and consulting services; generates solar power; and sells electricity.
The company was formerly known as Nippon Konpo Unyu Soko Co., Ltd. and changed its name to NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. in October 2015. NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF) currently trades at $27.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.23, 59% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $17.90 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $27.33 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.06, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.91 (bear) to $19.73 (bull), the price of $27.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. reported revenue of ¥270B in FY2026 versus ¥198B in FY2022, a compound +8.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥18.2B in FY2026, compounding +5.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $1.2B Small · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 0.71 · EPS (TTM) $0.9000 · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 6.8% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 210% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −59%, NIPKF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.91Fair Value $11.23Bull$19.73
Price $27.33 · Downside -58.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−1.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.4% a year for the price and +1.7% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
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Is NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.23 versus a price of $27.33, about 59% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NIPKF?
Our model-based fair value for NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. is $11.23 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $27.33.
What is the quality score of NIPKF?
NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.23 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.91, optimistic scenario $19.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.23, about 59% lower versus a price of $27.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.91, optimistic scenario $19.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥273B (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
Does NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. pay a dividend?
NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 4.99% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. pays a dividend of $1.36 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. The payout ratio is 42.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.30 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +31.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NIPKF use?
Our models discount NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. that is +31.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +31.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (+31.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.97 %: that much free cash flow NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. it is $11.23 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $27.33. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, NIPKF trades above its calculated fair value: price $27.33, fair value $11.23, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NIPKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($27.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.23). For NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. the two are $16.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. worth?
The market values NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $27.33; our models calculate a fair value of $11.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NIPKF?
Our models span a range for NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd.: cautious scenario $7.91, base $11.23, optimistic $19.73 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $27.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NIPKF?
NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
Balance-sheet figures for NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NIPKF from its 52-week high?
NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. trades at $27.33, at its 52-week high of $27.33 and 210% above the low of $8.82 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $27.33, calculated fair value $11.23 (−59%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NIPKF calculated?
We run NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $11.23 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was $27.33. Our model-based fair value is $11.23, about 59% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($7.91 to $19.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
The market capitalisation of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. is 0.71 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
Earnings per share at NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. are $0.9000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
The dividend yield of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. is 5.0% (payout 152%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
The net margin of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. is 6.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
The operating margin of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
Revenue at NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF)?
Earnings per share at NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. are growing −48.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. (NIPKF) carry?
The net debt of NIKKON Holdings Co.,Ltd. is ¥98.1B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 9.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 11, 2026