Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. stock $19.24, price $18.75, upside +2.6%, quality 24 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.38 – $23.74 · fair‑value band $16.73 – $24.45 · the $18.75 price screens below the $19.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in the residential mortgage finance business.
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The company invests in agency mortgage-backed securities collateralized by residential mortgages; non-agency residential whole loans and securitized products within the residential and commercial markets; mortgage servicing rights; agency commercial mortgage-backed securities; to-be-announced forward contracts; residential mortgage-backed securities; residential mortgage loans; and agency or private label credit risk transfer securities.
It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT). As a REIT, it is not subject to federal income tax to the extent that it distributes its taxable income to its shareholders. Annaly Capital Management, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) currently trades at $18.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.24, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $38.65 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the $18.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.29, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $16.73 (bear) to $24.45 (bull), the price of $18.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. reported revenue of $6.7B in FY2025 versus $751M in FY2021, a compound +72.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.0B in FY2025, compounding −4.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $13.7B Large · P/E ratio 4.7 · P/S ratio 1.41 · EPS (TTM) $4.02 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 30.3% · Return on equity 7.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 78% fair-value upside, at 3%, NLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$16.73Fair Value $19.24Bull$24.45
Price $18.75 · Upside +2.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.84 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$19.68$22.64$28.7676
Gordon GGM$21.25$41.15$60.5567
DDM Multi-Stage$21.25$36.14$43.6067
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$21.25$41.15$60.5567
DDM Multi-Stage$21.25$36.14$43.6067
Multiples
P/S Multiple$16.66$22.21$27.7658
P/B Multiple$22.40$29.86$37.3355
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$10.67$14.29$21.3354
Economic Profit
Residual Income$19.68$22.64$28.7676
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $2.0M and none bought.
SaleDavid L FinkelsteinCEO and Co-CIO, Director4× since Feb 18, 2026: 198,223 shares, avg. $21.86$4.3MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSerena WolfeChief Financial Officer2× since Feb 18, 2026: 33,073 shares, avg. $22.81$754,395May 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSteven Francis CampbellPresident and COO2× since Feb 18, 2026: 54,716 shares, avg. $22.98$1.3MFeb 25, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.1% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−12.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13.9% vs −2.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 103%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The mortgage REIT benefits from a simplified capital structure after retiring preferred shares, yet its core weakness remains thin margins combined with rate sensitivity, negative free cash flow and elevated debt.
Main risk: Technology and consolidation could structurally lower origination profit margins and increase MSR supply, squeezing margins in Annaly's mortgage servicing rights business.
Bull case: Annaly could leverage its scale and diversified platforms in residential credit and MSR to capture opportunities from lower origination margins and maintain attractive spreads through active management.
Bear case: If technology further erodes origination economics and GSE policies add credit risk, Annaly's core spread-based model could face sustained margin pressure and higher losses across its leveraged portfolios.
Annaly recently retired all its Series I preferred shares and reclassified them as common stock. This removes a fixed-rate preferred obligation from the capital structure right as borrowing costs climb across real estate and mortgage assets. Does the simplification mainly ease the dividend burden on common equity going forward, or does it reflect preparation for tighter spreads in the core portfolio?
Compare Annaly Capital Management, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 31 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+2.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)77.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)107.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)479.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.98× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)4.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.85× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)9.56× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA6.4× · Cheaper than median
PEG32.03× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)37· sector 100
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 97
PAST (return on equity)29· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)75· sector 100
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NLY
Frequently asked questions
Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.24 versus a price of $18.75, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NLY?
Our model-based fair value for Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is $19.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.75.
What is the quality score of NLY?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.73, optimistic scenario $24.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Annaly Capital Management, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.24, about +3% upside versus a price of $18.75 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $16.73, optimistic scenario $24.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Annaly Capital Management, Inc. pay a dividend?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.73% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. pays a dividend of $0.7 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1997. The payout ratio is 17.4% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Annaly Capital Management, Inc. it is $19.24 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $18.75. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, NLY trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.75, fair value $19.24, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.24). For Annaly Capital Management, Inc. the two are $0.4940 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. worth?
The market values Annaly Capital Management, Inc. at about $13.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $18.75; our models calculate a fair value of $19.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NLY?
Our models span a range for Annaly Capital Management, Inc.: cautious scenario $16.73, base $19.24, optimistic $24.45 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $18.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NLY?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.24 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 32.0, P/B 0.9, P/S 9.6, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
What is the PEG ratio of NLY?
The PEG ratio of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 32.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 7.4%, debt of 1.98 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NLY from its 52-week high?
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. trades at $18.75, about 21% below its 52-week high of $23.74 and 6% above the low of $17.72 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Annaly Capital Management, Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value AGNC Investment Corp, Rithm Capital Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Dynex Capital, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Annaly Capital Management, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $18.75, calculated fair value $19.24 (+3%), Quality Score 24/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NLY calculated?
We run Annaly Capital Management, Inc. through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $19.24 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Annaly Capital Management, Inc. currently trades 3% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $18.75. Our model-based fair value is $19.24, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Annaly Capital Management, Inc. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Annaly Capital Management, Inc. grew −4.6 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.3 %, EBIT margin +3.2 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −12.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
The market capitalisation of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is $13.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 1.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
Earnings per share at Annaly Capital Management, Inc. are $4.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
The dividend yield of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 3.7% (payout 17.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
The net margin of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 30.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
The operating margin of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is 108% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
Revenue at Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is growing +479% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)?
Earnings per share at Annaly Capital Management, Inc. are growing +34.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) generate?
The free cash flow of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is −$222M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) carry?
The net debt of Annaly Capital Management, Inc. is $110B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026