Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd $5.25, price $6.68, upside -21.4%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $5.44 – $6.81 · fair‑value band $3.67 – $6.82 · the $6.68 price screens above the $5.25 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Nissan Shatai Co., Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells vehicles in Japan and internationally. The company offers passenger and commercial vehicles, minibuses, and vehicle parts, as well as premium and specially equipped vehicles.
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Nissan Shatai Co., Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells vehicles in Japan and internationally. The company offers passenger and commercial vehicles, minibuses, and vehicle parts, as well as premium and specially equipped vehicles. It also provides machinery maintenance and servicing, equipment installation, and logistics services; system and program development services; and temporary staff placement services. In addition, the company is involved in the pressing and assembly of auto parts; and molding and assembly of resin products. It offers its products primarily under the Nissan brand. The company was formerly known as Nissan Shatai Koki Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Nissan Shatai Co., Ltd. in June 1971. The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Hiratsuka, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF) currently trades at $6.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.25, implying the stock looks roughly 27.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $16.18 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $6.68 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $5.75, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.67 (bear) to $6.82 (bull), the price of $6.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥406B in FY2026 versus ¥215B in FY2022, a compound +17.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.9B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $904M · P/E ratio 20.9 · P/S ratio 0.36 · EPS (TTM) $0.3200 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −21%, NSNHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.67Fair Value $5.25Bull $6.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +56.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+26.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.48% vs 59%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 4%
2026 sits 129% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−21% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
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Is Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.25 versus a price of $6.68, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NSNHF?
Our model-based fair value for Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd is $5.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.68.
What is the quality score of NSNHF?
Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.67, optimistic scenario $6.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.25, about −21% upside versus a price of $6.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.67, optimistic scenario $6.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥404B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NSNHF use?
Our models discount Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd that is -12.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd grew +2.3 % a year. The price currently implies -12.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (-12.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.18 %: that much free cash flow Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd it is $5.25 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $6.68. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NSNHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.68, fair value $5.25, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NSNHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.25). For Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd the two are $1.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd at about $904M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $6.68; our models calculate a fair value of $5.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NSNHF?
Our models span a range for Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $3.67, base $5.25, optimistic $6.82 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $6.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NSNHF?
Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NSNHF from its 52-week high?
Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd trades at $6.68, about 2% below its 52-week high of $6.81 and 7% above the low of $6.24 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $6.68, calculated fair value $5.25 (−21%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NSNHF calculated?
We run Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $6.68. Our model-based fair value is $5.25, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($3.67 to $6.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF) come from?
Earnings per share at Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd grew −3.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.1 %, EBIT margin −1.4 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −12.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
The market capitalisation of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd is $904M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd is 0.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
Earnings per share at Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd are $0.3200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
The dividend yield of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd is 1.5% (payout 30.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
The net margin of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd is 1.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd is 11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
The operating margin of Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
Revenue at Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd is growing +13.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF)?
Earnings per share at Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd are growing +8.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd (NSNHF) hold?
Nissan Shatai Co. Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥71.1B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026