NetScout Systems, Inc (NTCT) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $3.1B
NetScout Systems, Inc
NTCT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from $27.95 to $26.72 (−4.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −10.6% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 30% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.65 – $44.84 · fair‑value band $20.04 – $33.40 · the $38.44 price screens above the $26.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
NetScout Systems, Inc (NTCT) currently trades at $38.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.72, implying the stock looks roughly 30.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, NetScout Systems, Inc generated revenue of $859M at a net margin of 11.1%. Revenue declined 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $547M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.04 (bear case) to $33.40 (bull case); at $38.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -30%, NTCT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($48.63) versus Earnings-Based ($10.13). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
NetScout Systems, Inc. provides carrier service assurance, cybersecurity, and Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) solutions to protect digital business services against disruptions.
Full company description
NetScout Systems, Inc. provides carrier service assurance, cybersecurity, and Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) solutions to protect digital business services against disruptions. It offers nGeniusONE management software to predict, preempt, and resolve network and service delivery problems, as well as facilitate the optimization and capacity planning of their network infrastructures; and specialized platforms and analytic modules to analyze and troubleshoot traffic in radio access and Wi-Fi networks; and Omnis Insights, a solution that is designed to generate a high-fidelity and curated dataset that strengthens observability and cybersecurity operations. Its platform provides real-time generation and analysis of information-rich, high-volume network-derived data for use its applications and partner networks. In addition, it offers ISNG, a real-time information platform that provides insights to optimize network performance; packet flow systems that delivers targeted network traffic access to a range of monitoring and cybersecurity tools and systems, including the nGeniusONE application; vSTREAM, a virtualized form factor version; Infinistream, an advanced passive network probe; and markets test access points that enables full and non-disruptive access to network traffic. Further, the company provides cybersecurity solutions to protect networks against DDoS attacks under the Arbor solutions, including Arbor Sightline, Arbor Threat Mitigation System, Arbor Insight, Arbor Edge Defense, and Omnis Cyber Intelligence solutions. It serves enterprise customers in financial services, technology, manufacturing, healthcare, utilities, education, transportation, and retail; mobile, wireline, and cable operators, internet service providers, and cloud providers industries; and government and associated agencies through a direct sales force, and indirect reseller and distribution channels. The company was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Westford, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
NetScout Systems, Inc reported revenue of $859M in FY2026 versus $856M in FY2022, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was $95.5M in FY2026, compounding +27.7%/yr from FY2022.
NTCT screens 30% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- NetScout Systems Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
- NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT) (Q1 2027) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ...
- NetScout Systems (NTCT) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- NETSCOUT Reports First Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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