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NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of NetScout Systems Inc $37.41, price $39.28, upside -4.8%, quality 78 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · ISIN US64115T1043

NS NetScout Systems Inc logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

NetScout Systems Inc

NTCT · US

Quality WatchlistA strong company, but the current price is close to Fair Value.

·Fair value $37.41 · Fairly valued (−5%)
✓Quality 78/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Narrow moat 44/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Weak on valuation: 27 out of 100
!Weak on past: 24 out of 100
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$44.84 $17.65 Fair Value $37.41 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $17.65 – $44.84 · fair‑value band $28.06 – $46.77 · the $39.28 price screens above the $37.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

NetScout Systems, Inc. provides carrier service assurance, cybersecurity, and Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) solutions to protect digital business services against disruptions.

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NetScout Systems, Inc. provides carrier service assurance, cybersecurity, and Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) solutions to protect digital business services against disruptions. It offers nGeniusONE management software to predict, preempt, and resolve network and service delivery problems, as well as facilitate the optimization and capacity planning of their network infrastructures; and specialized platforms and analytic modules to analyze and troubleshoot traffic in radio access and Wi-Fi networks; and Omnis Insights, a solution that is designed to generate a high-fidelity and curated dataset that strengthens observability and cybersecurity operations. Its platform provides real-time generation and analysis of information-rich, high-volume network-derived data for use its applications and partner networks. In addition, it offers ISNG, a real-time information platform that provides insights to optimize network performance; packet flow systems that delivers targeted network traffic access to a range of monitoring and cybersecurity tools and systems, including the nGeniusONE application; vSTREAM, a virtualized form factor version; Infinistream, an advanced passive network probe; and markets test access points that enables full and non-disruptive access to network traffic. Further, the company provides cybersecurity solutions to protect networks against DDoS attacks under the Arbor solutions, including Arbor Sightline, Arbor Threat Mitigation System, Arbor Insight, Arbor Edge Defense, and Omnis Cyber Intelligence solutions. It serves enterprise customers in financial services, technology, manufacturing, healthcare, utilities, education, transportation, and retail; mobile, wireline, and cable operators, internet service providers, and cloud providers industries; and government and associated agencies through a direct sales force, and indirect reseller and distribution channels. The company was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Westford, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT) currently trades at $39.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.41, implying the stock looks roughly 5.0% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $55.45 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $39.28 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $10.13, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $28.06 (bear) to $46.77 (bull), the price of $39.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

NetScout Systems Inc reported revenue of $859M in FY2026 versus $856M in FY2022, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was $95.5M in FY2026, compounding +27.7%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $3.1B · P/E ratio 30.2 · P/S ratio 3.36 · EPS (TTM) $1.30 · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity 6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.7% · Operating margin 9.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −5%, NTCT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $28.06 Fair Value $37.41 Bull $46.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6304 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $51.13 $76.28 $114.08 80
Growth DCF $51.55 $73.30 $103.77 79
Owner Earnings $30.63 $44.15 $64.46 76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $51.13 $76.28 $114.08 80
Owner Earnings $30.63 $44.15 $64.46 76
5Y Revenue Exit $31.36 $41.37 $53.60 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $41.95 $61.54 $84.35 75
5Y P/E Exit $38.75 $55.45 $72.97 71
10Y Revenue Exit $37.84 $48.78 $62.73 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $44.91 $62.60 $86.07 69
10Y P/E Exit $42.90 $58.42 $77.43 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $9.09 $30.91 $41.46 64
Lynch FV $7.09 $10.13 $13.17 61
PEG = 1.0 $7.09 $10.13 $13.17 57
EPV $18.08 $19.86 $21.40 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $28.06 $37.41 $46.77 63
P/S Multiple $17.04 $22.72 $28.39 58
P/B Multiple $17.04 $22.72 $28.39 55
EV/EBIT $34.92 $44.29 $53.66 66
EV/EBITDA $40.42 $51.63 $62.83 67
EV/Revenue $21.02 $27.11 $33.20 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $11.53 $15.46 $23.07 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $51.55 $73.30 $103.77 79
Rev-Margin DCF $31.36 $41.92 $54.57 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $17.80 $18.17 $17.86 71
ROIC Compounder $18.08 $19.86 $21.40 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $23.24 $33.20 $43.16 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 78/100

Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 92
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 81
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 91
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.1% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+35.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29% vs 4%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 13%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.0% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.6%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+3.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.2%
Projected 2031 (sales)+3.0%

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 377 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.06× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 30.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.89× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.63× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 10.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 15.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.64× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)27 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 49
PAST (return on equity)24 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 33

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Microsoft Corporation MSFT $498.00 $547.80 +10%
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Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $374.57 $114.50 −69%
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $250.06 $35.15 −86%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $174.26 $164.92 −5%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $409.24 $250.04 −39%
Block, Inc XYZ $77.53 $101.29 +31%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $86.76 $71.79 −17%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $192.91 $157.18 −19%

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$37.41 −5%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NetScout Systems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NTCT

Frequently asked questions

Is NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $37.41 versus a price of $39.28, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NTCT?
Our model-based fair value for NetScout Systems Inc is $37.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.28.
What is the quality score of NTCT?
NetScout Systems Inc has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $37.41 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.06, optimistic scenario $46.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NetScout Systems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $37.41, about −5% upside versus a price of $39.28 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $28.06, optimistic scenario $46.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
NetScout Systems Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $859M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NetScout Systems Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -4.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NTCT use?
Our models discount NetScout Systems Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.68, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NetScout Systems Inc that is -4.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NetScout Systems Inc grew +0.7 % a year. The price currently implies -4.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NetScout Systems Inc (-4.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.13 %: that much free cash flow NetScout Systems Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NetScout Systems Inc it is $37.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $39.28. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NetScout Systems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NTCT trades above its calculated fair value: price $39.28, fair value $37.41, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NTCT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($37.41). For NetScout Systems Inc the two are $1.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NetScout Systems Inc worth?
The market values NetScout Systems Inc at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $39.28; our models calculate a fair value of $37.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NTCT?
Our models span a range for NetScout Systems Inc: cautious scenario $28.06, base $37.41, optimistic $46.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $39.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NTCT?
NetScout Systems Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $37.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.9, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 15.7.
What is the PEG ratio of NTCT?
The PEG ratio of NetScout Systems Inc is 1.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
Balance-sheet figures for NetScout Systems Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.0%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NTCT from its 52-week high?
NetScout Systems Inc trades at $39.28, about 12% below its 52-week high of $44.84 and 54% above the low of $25.47 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $37.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NetScout Systems Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NetScout Systems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $39.28, calculated fair value $37.41 (−5%), Quality Score 78/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NTCT calculated?
We run NetScout Systems Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $37.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. NetScout Systems Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $39.28. Our model-based fair value is $37.41, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NetScout Systems Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Key figures of NetScout Systems Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
The market capitalisation of NetScout Systems Inc is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NetScout Systems Inc is 3.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
Earnings per share at NetScout Systems Inc are $1.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
The net margin of NetScout Systems Inc is 11.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NetScout Systems Inc is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NetScout Systems Inc is −2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
The operating margin of NetScout Systems Inc is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
Revenue at NetScout Systems Inc is growing −1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT)?
Earnings per share at NetScout Systems Inc are growing −7.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT) hold?
NetScout Systems Inc holds more cash than debt, $547M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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