Nufarm Limited (NUF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$1.0B
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from A$1.35 to A$1.56 (+15.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.82 – A$6.58 · fair‑value band A$1.56 – A$2.78 · the A$2.98 price screens above the A$1.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Nufarm Limited (NUF) currently trades at A$2.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.56, implying the stock looks roughly 47.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Nufarm Limited generated revenue of A$3.3B at a net margin of -4.7%. Revenue grew 3.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.2%. Net debt stands at A$824M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.56 (bear case) to A$2.78 (bull case); at A$2.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at -48%, NUF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$3.68) versus Growth DCF (A$0.2300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Nufarm Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells crop protection solutions and seed technologies in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Crop Protection and Seed Technologies segments.
Full company description
Nufarm Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells crop protection solutions and seed technologies in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Crop Protection and Seed Technologies segments. The company offers herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides that help growers protect crops against weeds, pests, and diseases. It also operates base seeds, bioenergy, omega-3 and seed treatment platforms, as well as sells seeds and oil-based products. It also focuses on crops, such as cereals; corn; soybean; pasture, turf, and ornamentals; and trees, nuts, vines, and vegetables. In addition, the company provides seed treatment products for the protection and treatment of damage caused by insects, fungus, and disease. Further, it distributes sunflower, sorghum, carinata, energy cane and canola seeds. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Laverton North, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nufarm Limited reported revenue of A$3.4B in FY2025 versus A$3.2B in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$165M in FY2025.
NUF screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $86.07 | $27.81 | -68% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$94.23 | C$81.69 | -13% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥24.93 | ¥21.26 | -15% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $119.19 | $161.00 | +35% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 451.30 | kr 67.25 | -85% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥30.17 | ¥42.12 | +40% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥42.59 | ¥38.01 | -11% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹2,034 | ₹1,129 | -44% |
| UPL Limited UPL | ₹594.75 | ₹387.06 | -35% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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