Nufarm Ltd (NUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Nufarm Ltd A$1.56, price A$3.00, upside -48.0%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.82 – A$6.58 · fair‑value band A$1.56 – A$2.78 · the A$3.00 price screens above the A$1.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Nufarm Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells crop protection solutions and seed technologies in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Crop Protection and Seed Technologies segments.
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Nufarm Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells crop protection solutions and seed technologies in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Crop Protection and Seed Technologies segments. The company offers herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides that help growers protect crops against weeds, pests, and diseases. It also operates base seeds, bioenergy, omega-3 and seed treatment platforms, as well as sells seeds and oil-based products. It also focuses on crops, such as cereals; corn; soybean; pasture, turf, and ornamentals; and trees, nuts, vines, and vegetables. In addition, the company provides seed treatment products for the protection and treatment of damage caused by insects, fungus, and disease. Further, it distributes sunflower, sorghum, carinata, energy cane and canola seeds. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Laverton North, Australia.
Stock analysis
Nufarm Ltd (NUF) currently trades at A$3.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.56, implying the stock looks roughly 92.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$3.68 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$3.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.5400, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$1.56 (bear) to A$2.78 (bull), the price of A$3.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Nufarm Ltd reported revenue of A$3.4B in FY2025 versus A$3.2B in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$165M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.1B (≈ $809M) · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.4100 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin −4.8% · Return on equity −7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin −32.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −48%, NUF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$1.56Fair Value A$1.56Bull A$2.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.3% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−9.0% (2020) → 2.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+24.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.7% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−48% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−32% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.43× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.38× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.24× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF19.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA5.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.45× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)15· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)41· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nufarm Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NUF
Frequently asked questions
Is Nufarm Ltd (NUF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.56 versus a price of A$3.00, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NUF?
Our model-based fair value for Nufarm Ltd is A$1.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.00.
What is the quality score of NUF?
Nufarm Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.56, optimistic scenario A$2.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nufarm Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.56, about −48% upside versus a price of A$3.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$1.56, optimistic scenario A$2.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
Nufarm Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$3.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Nufarm Ltd pay a dividend?
Nufarm Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nufarm Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +24.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NUF use?
Our models discount Nufarm Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nufarm Ltd that is +24.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nufarm Ltd (NUF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nufarm Ltd grew +3.9 % a year. The price currently implies +24.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nufarm Ltd (NUF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nufarm Ltd (+24.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.58 %: that much free cash flow Nufarm Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nufarm Ltd it is A$1.56 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$3.00. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nufarm Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NUF trades above its calculated fair value: price A$3.00, fair value A$1.56, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NUF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.56). For Nufarm Ltd the two are A$1.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nufarm Ltd worth?
The market values Nufarm Ltd at about A$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$3.00; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NUF?
Our models span a range for Nufarm Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.56, base A$1.56, optimistic A$2.78 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$3.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NUF?
The PEG ratio of Nufarm Ltd is 2.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nufarm Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −7.2%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NUF from its 52-week high?
Nufarm Ltd trades at A$3.00, about 9% below its 52-week high of A$3.30 and 65% above the low of A$1.82 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nufarm Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nufarm Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$3.00, calculated fair value A$1.56 (−48%), Quality Score 43/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NUF calculated?
We run Nufarm Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nufarm Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$3.00. Our model-based fair value is A$1.56, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nufarm Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Nufarm Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
The market capitalisation of Nufarm Ltd is A$1.1B (≈ $809M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nufarm Ltd is 0.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
Earnings per share at Nufarm Ltd are A$−0.4100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
The dividend yield of Nufarm Ltd is 2.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
The net margin of Nufarm Ltd is −4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nufarm Ltd is −7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nufarm Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
The operating margin of Nufarm Ltd is −32.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
Revenue at Nufarm Ltd is growing +3.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nufarm Ltd (NUF)?
Earnings per share at Nufarm Ltd are growing −52.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nufarm Ltd (NUF) carry?
The net debt of Nufarm Ltd is A$824M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 20.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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