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NUIX Ltd (NXL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of NUIX Ltd A$1.13, price A$1.84, upside -38.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · AU · ISIN AU0000119307

NL NUIX Ltd logo Some data Sep 27, 2026

NUIX Ltd

NXL · AU

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value A$1.13 · Strongly overvalued (−38.4%)
✓Quality 62/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +4.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/13)
!Narrow moat 36/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 17 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$7.74 A$0.5300 Fair Value A$1.13 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.5300 – A$7.74 · fair‑value band A$0.7000 – A$1.70 · the A$1.84 price screens above the A$1.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Nuix Limited provides investigative analytics and intelligence software solutions in the Asia Pacific, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

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Nuix Limited provides investigative analytics and intelligence software solutions in the Asia Pacific, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers Nuix Neo Platform, a solution-based offering that solves most challenging data problems; Nuix Neo Data Privacy for managing data privacy; Nuix Neo Investigations, collaborates in real time and uncover the truth with insights on a massive scale; and Nuix Neo Legal provides insights from data and make decisions for law firms and legal service providers. It also provides Nuix Neo Discover, an eDiscovery processing, review, analytics, and predictive coding in one software solution; Nuix Workstation, a platform that process file formats and source types to search and analyze, and turn data into information; Nuix Investigate, visualize communication patterns and establish case position sooner; Nuix Adaptive Security, detects potential internal and external threats to data security in real-time; and Nuix Enterprise Collection Center, a streamline and automate data collection for relocation, analysis, processing, and production. In addition, it offers Nuix Rampiva, an ediscovery workflow automation suite that has increased the data-processing throughput of the team. It serves government agencies, regulators, corporations, and professional service firms. The company was formerly known as Nuix Pty Ltd and changed its name to Nuix Limited in September 2020. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

NUIX Ltd (NXL) currently trades at A$1.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.13, implying the stock looks roughly 62.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$1.37 per share, and 4 of the 11 models we run sit above the A$1.84 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.5800, and 7 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: A$0.7000 (bear) to A$1.70 (bull), the price of A$1.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

NUIX Ltd reported revenue of A$222M in FY2024 versus A$176M in FY2020, a compound +5.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$9.2M in FY2024.

Key figures

Market cap A$602M (≈ $423M) · P/E ratio 45.9 · P/S ratio 1.85 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0400 · Net margin −4.2% · Return on equity 4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1% · Operating margin 5.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −38%, NXL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.7000 Fair Value A$1.13 Bull A$1.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0400 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF A$0.8500 A$1.37 A$2.15 79
Growth DCF A$0.8400 A$1.30 A$1.95 78
Owner Earnings A$1.44 A$2.34 A$3.68 75
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$0.8500 A$1.37 A$2.15 79
Owner Earnings A$1.44 A$2.34 A$3.68 75
5Y Revenue Exit A$0.7600 A$1.24 A$1.88 72
5Y EBITDA Exit A$1.40 A$2.54 A$3.97 73
10Y Revenue Exit A$0.7700 A$1.21 A$1.86 66
10Y EBITDA Exit A$1.17 A$2.07 A$3.44 66
Multiples
EV/EBITDA A$1.90 A$2.51 A$3.13 67
EV/Revenue A$0.7200 A$1.01 A$1.30 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.4300 A$0.5800 A$0.8600 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$0.8400 A$1.30 A$1.95 78
Rev-Margin DCF A$0.7600 A$1.23 A$1.84 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 51/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
19.1% (2019) → −3.9% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2024 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.8% a year for the price and +6.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2025 (sales)+10.1%
Forecast 2026 (sales)+10.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+10.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.8%

NXL screens 62% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 699 stocks

Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside −38.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4.1% · Above median
Return on assets 2.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 5.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 15.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.09× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 45.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.45× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.78× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 16.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)76 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)17 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €185.92 €172.46 −7%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $234.02 $342.73 +46%
Shopify Inc SHOP $142.25 $64.36 −55%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $135.62 $149.18 +10%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $69.62 $103.69 +49%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $335.94 $74.36 −78%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $263.67 $150.01 −43%
Adobe Inc ADBE $235.47 $454.04 +93%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $268.13 $32.52 −88%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $326.13 $225.48 −31%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NUIX Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NXL

Frequently asked questions

Is NUIX Ltd (NXL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.13 versus a price of A$1.84, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NXL?
Our model-based fair value for NUIX Ltd is A$1.13 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.84.
What is the quality score of NXL?
NUIX Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.13 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.7000, optimistic scenario A$1.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NUIX Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.13, about −38% upside versus a price of A$1.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.7000, optimistic scenario A$1.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
NUIX Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$237M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NUIX Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +21.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NXL use?
Our models discount NUIX Ltd at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 2.00, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NUIX Ltd that is +21.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NUIX Ltd (NXL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NUIX Ltd grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies +21.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NUIX Ltd (NXL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NUIX Ltd (+21.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.20 %: that much free cash flow NUIX Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NUIX Ltd it is A$1.13 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$1.84. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NUIX Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, NXL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.84, fair value A$1.13, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NXL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.13). For NUIX Ltd the two are A$0.7050 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NUIX Ltd worth?
The market values NUIX Ltd at about A$602M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$1.84; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NXL?
Our models span a range for NUIX Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.7000, base A$1.13, optimistic A$1.70 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$1.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NXL?
NUIX Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
Balance-sheet figures for NUIX Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.1%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NXL from its 52-week high?
NUIX Ltd trades at A$1.84, about 42% below its 52-week high of A$3.19 and 70% above the low of A$1.08 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NUIX Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NUIX Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$1.84, calculated fair value A$1.13 (−38%), Quality Score 62/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NXL calculated?
We run NUIX Ltd through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. NUIX Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was A$1.84. Our model-based fair value is A$1.13, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NUIX Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.7000 to A$1.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of NUIX Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
The market capitalisation of NUIX Ltd is A$602M (≈ $423M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NUIX Ltd is 1.85 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
Earnings per share at NUIX Ltd are A$0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
The net margin of NUIX Ltd is −4.2% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NUIX Ltd is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NUIX Ltd is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
The operating margin of NUIX Ltd is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NUIX Ltd (NXL)?
Revenue at NUIX Ltd is growing +15.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does NUIX Ltd (NXL) hold?
NUIX Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$35.0M net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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