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Paychex Inc (PAYX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Paychex Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Technology · US · ISIN US7043261079

PI Paychex Inc logo Broad data Sep 18, 2026

Paychex Inc

PAYX · US

Quality WatchlistQuality growthA strong company, but the current price is close to Fair Value.

·Fair value $128.39 · Fairly valued (+11%)
✓Quality 77/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 26.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/15)
✓Wide moat 90/100
!Insider activity 45/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$153.47 $84.48 Fair Value $128.39 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $84.48 – $153.47 · fair‑value band $85.80 – $195.35 · the $116.14 price screens below the $128.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

Paychex, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides human capital management solutions (HCM) for payroll, employee benefits, human resources (HR), and insurance services for small to medium-sized businesses in the United States, Europe, and India.

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Paychex, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides human capital management solutions (HCM) for payroll, employee benefits, human resources (HR), and insurance services for small to medium-sized businesses in the United States, Europe, and India. It offers payroll processing services; payroll tax administration services; employee payment services; and regulatory compliance services. The company provides retirement solutions, such as plan implementation, ongoing compliance with government regulations, employee and employer reporting, participant and employer online access, electronic funds transfer, and other administrative services; HCM solutions from recruiting and hiring to retirement; and talent management and talent acquisition services. In addition, it offers payroll solutions, including calculation, preparation, and delivery of employee payroll checks; production of internal accounting records and management reports; preparation of federal, state, and local payroll tax returns; and collection and remittance of clients' payroll obligations. Further, the company provides workforce management solutions; benefits administration solutions; digital marketplace for earned wages, financial wellness solutions, and voluntary lifestyle benefits; HR support to non-payroll clients through HR Partner Plus solution; and insurance services for property and casualty coverage, such as workers' compensation, business-owner policies, cyber security protection, and commercial auto, as well as health and benefits coverage, including health, dental, vision, and life. Additionally, it offers payroll, employer compliance, HR and employee benefits administration, risk management outsourcing, and both virtual and on-site availability of a professionally trained HR representative, and other solutions to businesses. It markets and sells its services primarily through its direct sales force. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.

Stock analysis

Paychex Inc (PAYX) currently trades at $116.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $128.39, implying the stock looks roughly 9.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $110.86 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the $116.14 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $34.29, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $85.80 (bear) to $195.35 (bull), the price of $116.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Paychex Inc reported revenue of $6.5B in FY2026 versus $4.6B in FY2022, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2026, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $41.8B · P/E ratio 25.6 · P/S ratio 6.93 · EPS (TTM) $4.53 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 27.0% · Return on equity 40.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 11%, PAYX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $85.80 Fair Value $128.39 Bull $195.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.50 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $70.10 $125.59 $216.91 78
Growth DCF $70.37 $123.45 $209.76 76
Owner Earnings $57.95 $104.98 $182.37 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $70.10 $125.59 $216.91 78
Owner Earnings $57.95 $104.98 $182.37 74
5Y Revenue Exit $31.89 $50.71 $74.18 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $65.98 $118.16 $181.33 74
5Y P/E Exit $64.16 $114.55 $169.90 70
10Y Revenue Exit $43.71 $65.16 $93.91 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $66.69 $113.45 $180.11 67
10Y P/E Exit $65.50 $110.86 $170.92 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $33.66 $133.96 $182.04 64
Lynch FV $33.23 $47.47 $61.71 61
PEG = 1.0 $33.23 $47.47 $61.71 57
EPV $42.90 $51.65 $59.30 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $41.04 $85.34 $135.38 66
DDM Multi-Stage $41.04 $71.96 $89.57 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $77.96 $103.94 $129.93 63
P/S Multiple $27.47 $36.63 $45.78 58
P/B Multiple $35.45 $47.27 $59.08 55
EV/EBIT $80.43 $110.44 $140.44 66
EV/EBITDA $71.39 $98.38 $125.37 67
EV/Revenue $13.49 $23.38 $33.27 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.25 $7.04 $10.50 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $70.37 $123.45 $209.76 76
Rev-Margin DCF $31.89 $51.43 $75.80 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $28.99 $34.29 $148.71 64
ROIC Compounder $48.45 $65.67 $86.60 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $58.61 $83.73 $108.85 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 77/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 69
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 91/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10% vs 9%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 39%

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.4%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+5.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.6%
Projected 2031 (sales)+4.2%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 702 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −19% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 40% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 27% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 38% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.22× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 10.43× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 9.82× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 16.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 26.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.96× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)47 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)63 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)39 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)89 · sector 28

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €186.56 €156.00 −16%
Shopify Inc SHOP C$178.41 C$112.02 −37%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $71.43 $102.51 +44%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $255.65 $344.41 +35%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $141.90 $156.09 +10%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $273.96 $224.24 −18%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $322.98 $74.65 −77%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $230.27 $32.92 −86%
Adobe Inc ADBE $257.76 $471.62 +83%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $276.53 $177.51 −36%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Paychex Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PAYX

Frequently asked questions

Is Paychex Inc (PAYX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $128.39 versus a price of $116.14, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PAYX?
Our model-based fair value for Paychex Inc is $128.39 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $116.14.
What is the quality score of PAYX?
Paychex Inc has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $128.39 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $85.80, optimistic scenario $195.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Paychex Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $128.39, about +11% upside versus a price of $116.14 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $85.80, optimistic scenario $195.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
Paychex Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Paychex Inc pay a dividend?
Paychex Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.46% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Paychex Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.9 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PAYX use?
Our models discount Paychex Inc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Paychex Inc that is +7.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Paychex Inc (PAYX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Paychex Inc grew +9.9 % a year. The price currently implies +7.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Paychex Inc (PAYX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Paychex Inc (+7.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.55 %: that much free cash flow Paychex Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Paychex Inc it is $128.39 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $116.14. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Paychex Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, PAYX trades below its calculated fair value: price $116.14, fair value $128.39, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAYX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($116.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($128.39). For Paychex Inc the two are $12.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Paychex Inc worth?
The market values Paychex Inc at about $41.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $116.14; our models calculate a fair value of $128.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAYX?
Our models span a range for Paychex Inc: cautious scenario $85.80, base $128.39, optimistic $195.35 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $116.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PAYX?
Paychex Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.6 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $128.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 10.4, P/S 9.8, EV/EBITDA 26.3.
What is the PEG ratio of PAYX?
The PEG ratio of Paychex Inc is 1.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Paychex Inc (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 40.3%, debt of 1.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PAYX from its 52-week high?
Paychex Inc trades at $116.14, about 24% below its 52-week high of $153.08 and 38% above the low of $84.36 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $128.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Paychex Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Paychex Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $116.14, calculated fair value $128.39 (+11%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAYX calculated?
We run Paychex Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $128.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Paychex Inc currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $116.14. Our model-based fair value is $128.39, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Paychex Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($85.80 to $195.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Paychex Inc (PAYX) come from?
Earnings per share at Paychex Inc grew +9.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.8 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Paychex Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
The market capitalisation of Paychex Inc is $41.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Paychex Inc is 6.93 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
Earnings per share at Paychex Inc are $4.53 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
The dividend yield of Paychex Inc is 4.5% (payout 114%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
The net margin of Paychex Inc is 27.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Paychex Inc is 40.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Paychex Inc is 17.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
The operating margin of Paychex Inc is 44.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
Revenue at Paychex Inc is growing +19.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
Earnings per share at Paychex Inc are growing +9.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Paychex Inc (PAYX) carry?
The net debt of Paychex Inc is $3.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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