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Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Prosegur Cash, S.A $1.48, price $0.72, upside +105.6%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Prosegur Cash, S.A
PGUUF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $1.48 · Strongly undervalued (+105.6%)
!Quality 54/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +5.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.7% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 53/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0002 – $1.45 · fair‑value band $1.11 – $2.08 · the $0.7200 price screens below the $1.48 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Prosegur Cash, S.A. provides integrated cash cycle management solutions and automating payments in retail establishments and ATM management in Europe, LATAM, and internationally.
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Prosegur Cash, S.A. provides integrated cash cycle management solutions and automating payments in retail establishments and ATM management in Europe, LATAM, and internationally. The company offers local and international transport services through land, sea, and air, such as collection, transport, custody, delivery, and deposit in vaults for funds and other valuable goods. It also provides cash management and handling, and automation services consisting of counting, processing, reconditioning, securing storage, packaging, delivering, and recycling banknotes and coins, as well as cash flow monitoring and tracking systems and ATM replacement services; Cash Today, which automates payments in retail establishments; ATM management solutions comprising planning, loading, monitoring, first- and second-tier maintenance, and balancing services; value offshore systems services; correspondent banking services, such as management of collections and payments and invoice collection services, currency exchange services; and digital asset custody service. In addition, the company offers added-value offshore system services; cash back services for purchases at the supermarket, online travel bookings, reservations, and gift card purchases; and digital wallets. It serves financial institutions, retail establishments, government agencies and central banks, and mints and jewellery stores. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain. Prosegur Cash, S.A. is a subsidiary of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A.
Stock analysis
Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF) currently trades at $0.7200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.48, implying the stock looks roughly 51.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.86 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the $0.7200 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.3600, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.11 (bear) to $2.08 (bull), the price of $0.7200 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Prosegur Cash, S.A reported revenue of €2.0B in FY2025 versus €1.5B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was €90.0M in FY2025, compounding +28.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) $0.0800 · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 33.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.4% · Operating margin 10.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 106%, PGUUF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.11
Fair Value $1.48
Bull $2.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0605 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.42
$1.74
$2.28
82
Growth DCF
$1.45
$1.75
$2.22
80
Owner Earnings
$1.53
$1.88
$2.46
78
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.42
$1.74
$2.28
82
Owner Earnings
$1.53
$1.88
$2.46
78
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.50
$2.04
$2.82
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.01
$2.92
$4.11
75
5Y P/E Exit
$1.30
$1.71
$2.20
72
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.42
$1.86
$2.37
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.75
$2.40
$3.15
69
10Y P/E Exit
$1.35
$1.67
$1.99
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.4700
$0.8200
$1.01
66
EPV
$1.03
$1.13
$1.21
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.3600
$0.4400
$0.5200
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.3600
$0.4600
$0.5700
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.09
$1.45
$1.82
63
P/S Multiple
$0.8800
$1.18
$1.47
58
P/B Multiple
$0.4600
$0.6100
$0.7600
55
EV/EBIT
$2.21
$2.85
$3.50
66
EV/EBITDA
$2.80
$3.64
$4.48
67
EV/Revenue
$1.65
$2.25
$2.84
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.0700
$0.0900
$0.1400
53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.45
$1.75
$2.22
80
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.50
$2.06
$2.76
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.3100
$0.3600
$0.5400
75
ROIC Compounder
$1.03
$1.13
$1.21
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.7700
$1.10
$1.43
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
54/100
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Profitability
51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
19
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
73
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
89
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.3% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.22.9% vs −13.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.2%/yr over ~9Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.4% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.2%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $93.44 | $107.34 | +15% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €55.74 | €137.08 | +146% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $289.65 | $349.54 | +21% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,199 | kr 711.95 | −41% |
| Poste Italiane S.p.A PST | €24.49 | €14.24 | −42% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 224.50 | CHF 147.92 | −34% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $188.58 | $116.66 | −38% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥30.54 | ¥109.70 | +259% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $226.07 | $133.80 | −41% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $148.24 | $87.31 | −41% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.48 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.7200, about +106% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PGUUF?
Our model-based fair value for Prosegur Cash, S.A is $1.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.7200.
What is the quality score of PGUUF?
Prosegur Cash, S.A has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.11, optimistic scenario $2.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Prosegur Cash, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.48, about +106% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.7200 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.11, optimistic scenario $2.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
Prosegur Cash, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Prosegur Cash, S.A would have to grow free cash flow by -2.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PGUUF use?
Our models discount Prosegur Cash, S.A at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Prosegur Cash, S.A that is -2.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Prosegur Cash, S.A grew +5.7 % a year. The price currently implies -2.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Prosegur Cash, S.A (-2.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.00 %: that much free cash flow Prosegur Cash, S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Prosegur Cash, S.A it is $1.48 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.7200. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Prosegur Cash, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PGUUF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.7200, fair value $1.48, a gap of about +106% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PGUUF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.7200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.48). For Prosegur Cash, S.A the two are $0.7600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Prosegur Cash, S.A worth?
The market values Prosegur Cash, S.A at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.7200; our models calculate a fair value of $1.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PGUUF?
Our models span a range for Prosegur Cash, S.A: cautious scenario $1.11, base $1.48, optimistic $2.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.7200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to Prosegur Cash, S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Prosegur Cash, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.7200, calculated fair value $1.48 (+106%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PGUUF calculated?
We run Prosegur Cash, S.A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Prosegur Cash, S.A currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.7200. Our model-based fair value is $1.48, about +106% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Prosegur Cash, S.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.11). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($1.11 to $2.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF) come from?
Earnings per share at Prosegur Cash, S.A grew −16.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.2 %, EBIT margin −6.5 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Prosegur Cash, S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
The market capitalisation of Prosegur Cash, S.A is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Prosegur Cash, S.A is 9.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Prosegur Cash, S.A is 0.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
Earnings per share at Prosegur Cash, S.A are $0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
The net margin of Prosegur Cash, S.A is 4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Prosegur Cash, S.A is 33.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Prosegur Cash, S.A is 9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
The operating margin of Prosegur Cash, S.A is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
Revenue at Prosegur Cash, S.A is growing −3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF)?
Earnings per share at Prosegur Cash, S.A are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Prosegur Cash, S.A (PGUUF) carry?
The net debt of Prosegur Cash, S.A is €677M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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