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Ammo Inc (POWW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ammo Inc $1.22, price $2.29, upside -46.7%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ISIN US00175J1079

AI Ammo Inc logo Some data Oct 2, 2026

Ammo Inc

POWW · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $1.22 · Strongly overvalued (−46.7%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.9 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.1% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 8 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 22 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$9.55 $0.9778 Fair Value $1.22 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.9778 – $9.55 · fair‑value band $0.8700 – $1.82 · the $2.29 price screens above the $1.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Outdoor Holding Company engages in online marketplace business. It owns and operates the GunBroker e-commerce marketplace, an auction site that supports the lawful sale of firearms, ammunition, and hunting/shooting accessories. The company is also involved in banner advertising campaign activities. Outdoor Holding Company was formerly known as AMMO, Inc.

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Outdoor Holding Company engages in online marketplace business. It owns and operates the GunBroker e-commerce marketplace, an auction site that supports the lawful sale of firearms, ammunition, and hunting/shooting accessories. The company is also involved in banner advertising campaign activities. Outdoor Holding Company was formerly known as AMMO, Inc. and changed its name to Outdoor Holding Company in April 2025. Outdoor Holding Company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Stock analysis

Ammo Inc (POWW) currently trades at $2.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.22, 46.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $2.27 per share, and 0 of the 5 models we run sit above the $2.29 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.2800, and 5 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $0.8700 (bear) to $1.82 (bull), the price of $2.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Ammo Inc reported revenue of $51.1M in FY2026 versus $240M in FY2022, a compound −32.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.5M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $284M · P/E ratio 114.5 · P/S ratio 4.93 · EPS (TTM) $0.0200 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin −6.9% · Return on equity 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −47%, POWW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.8700 Fair Value $1.22 Bull $1.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0102 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $1.40 $2.27 $3.78 72
EV/EBITDA $1.56 $1.91 $2.26 67
Gordon GGM $0.1800 $0.2900 $0.3800 66
All 5 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $1.40 $2.27 $3.78 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.1800 $0.2900 $0.3800 66
DDM Multi-Stage $0.1800 $0.2800 $0.3200 65
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $1.56 $1.91 $2.26 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.01 $1.36 $2.02 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 10
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 96
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 87
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 45
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 15/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.6% (2021) → −1.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

POWW screens overvalued: fair value 47% below the price. Compare with General Electric Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −46.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2.0% · Below median
Return on assets 2.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 12.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 22.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 22.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 114.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.20× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 5.26× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.1× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 59
PAST (return on equity)8 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)22 · sector 18

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
General Electric Company GE $312.29 $92.61 −70%
RTX Corporation RTX $185.01 $88.30 −52%
Airbus SE AIR €185.60 €112.14 −40%
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $509.25 $439.62 −14%
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $230.94 $52.67 −77%
General Dynamics Corporation GD $334.16 $274.19 −18%
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $504.61 $382.98 −24%
TransDigm Group TDG $1,116 $1,228 +10%
Thales S.A HO €222.70 €170.99 −23%
Rheinmetall AG RHM €956.90 €313.19 −67%

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Ammo Inc · Fair Value
$1.22 −47%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ammo Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/POWW

Frequently asked questions

Is Ammo Inc (POWW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.22 versus a price of $2.29, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of POWW?
Our model-based fair value for Ammo Inc is $1.22 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.29.
What is the quality score of POWW?
Ammo Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ammo Inc (POWW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.22 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8700, optimistic scenario $1.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ammo Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.22, about −47% upside versus a price of $2.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.8700, optimistic scenario $1.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ammo Inc (POWW)?
Ammo Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $53.7M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Ammo Inc pay a dividend?
Ammo Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.11% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ammo Inc (POWW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ammo Inc it is $1.22 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $2.29. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ammo Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, POWW trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.29, fair value $1.22, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of POWW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.22). For Ammo Inc the two are $1.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ammo Inc worth?
The market values Ammo Inc at about $284M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $2.29; our models calculate a fair value of $1.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about POWW?
Our models span a range for Ammo Inc: cautious scenario $0.8700, base $1.22, optimistic $1.82 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $2.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of POWW?
Ammo Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 114.5 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 5.3, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ammo Inc (POWW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ammo Inc (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 2.0%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is POWW from its 52-week high?
Ammo Inc trades at $2.29, about 11% below its 52-week high of $2.56 and 58% above the low of $1.45 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ammo Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ammo Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $2.29, calculated fair value $1.22 (−47%), Quality Score 51/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of POWW calculated?
We run Ammo Inc through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ammo Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ammo Inc (POWW)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.29. Our model-based fair value is $1.22, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ammo Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.8700 to $1.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Ammo Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Ammo Inc (POWW)?
The market capitalisation of Ammo Inc is $284M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ammo Inc (POWW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ammo Inc is 4.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ammo Inc (POWW)?
Earnings per share at Ammo Inc are $0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 114.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ammo Inc (POWW)?
The dividend yield of Ammo Inc is 1.1% (payout 127%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ammo Inc (POWW)?
The net margin of Ammo Inc is −6.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ammo Inc (POWW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ammo Inc is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ammo Inc (POWW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ammo Inc is −2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ammo Inc (POWW)?
The operating margin of Ammo Inc is 22.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ammo Inc (POWW)?
Revenue at Ammo Inc is growing +22.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ammo Inc (POWW)?
Earnings per share at Ammo Inc are growing −75.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ammo Inc (POWW) generate?
The free cash flow of Ammo Inc is −$1.4M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Ammo Inc (POWW) hold?
Ammo Inc holds more cash than debt, $56.9M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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