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Data-driven stock valuation

Reed's, Inc. (REED) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Reed's, Inc. stock $0.53, price $1.01, that is 47.8% below the price, quality 29 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Defensive US

RS Reed's, Inc. logo Thin data Nov 4, 2026

Reed's, Inc.

REED · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 48% below what the stock costs today.

Moderate debt
Revenue last quarter 21% below a year ago.
Fair value $0.5270 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 29/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.9 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -63.5% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/9)
Narrow moat 6/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$239.67 $0.3655 Fair Value $0.5270 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.3655 – $239.67 · fair‑value band $0.3485 – $0.6545 · the $1.01 price screens above the $0.5270 fair value. As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Reed's, Inc. engages in the manufacture and distribution of natural beverages in the United States and the Asia-Pacific region. The company offers reed's craft ginger beer; reed's real ginger ales; reed's ready to drink; reed's functional soda; flying cauldron soda; and virgil's handcrafted sodas.

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It sells its products to natural food and gourmet retailers, grocery store chains, mass merchants, club stores, convenience and drug stores, liquor stores, industrial cafeterias, and on-premise bars and restaurants, as well as directly to consumers through its website, Amazon, and third party e-commerce retailers; and Reed's and Virgil's brand names.

The company was formerly known as Original Beverage Corporation and changed its name to Reed's, Inc. in 2001. Reed's, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.

Stock analysis

Reed's, Inc. (REED) currently trades at $1.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5270, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $0.3485 (bear) to $0.6545 (bull), the price of $1.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Reed's, Inc. reported revenue of $34.1M in FY2025 versus $49.6M in FY2021, a compound −9.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$15.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $12.0M Micro · P/S ratio 0.30 · EPS (TTM) $−1.76 · Net margin −63.5% · Return on equity −14,800% · Return on assets (EBIT) −53.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −54.3% · Revenue (TTM) $29.1M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 87% below its 52-week high and 176% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −48%, REED screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.3485 Fair Value $0.5270 Bull $0.6545
Price $1.01 · Downside -47.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $0.4100 $0.6200 $0.7700 55
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.4100 $0.6200 $0.7700 55

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 31
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 5
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 13
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 38
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 26
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 5
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.9% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−20.7% (2020) → −44.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

REED screens overvalued: fair value 48% below the price. Compare with The Coca-Cola Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 80 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −47.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −67.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −63.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −54.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −21.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.19× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.31× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.41× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 29
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 54
HEALTH (low debt)41 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 58

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 ¥115.00 ¥173.16 +51% vs REED
Celsius Holdings CELH $32.16 $35.38 +10% vs REED
Nongfu Spring Co 9633 HK$45.22 HK$49.28 +9% vs REED
Monster Beverage Corporation MNST $45.72 $41.19 −10% vs REED
Varun Beverages Limited VBL ₹438.00 ₹339.34 −23% vs REED
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP $116.13 $89.56 −23% vs REED
PepsiCo, Inc PEP $141.34 $97.18 −31% vs REED
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP $36.63 $24.43 −33% vs REED
Primo Brands Corporation PRMB $22.39 $12.23 −45% vs REED
The Coca-Cola Company KO $95.67 $29.32 −69% vs REED

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Reed's, Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Reed's, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/REED

Frequently asked questions

Is Reed's, Inc. (REED) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5270 versus a price of $1.01, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of REED?
Our model-based fair value for Reed's, Inc. is $0.5270 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.01.
What is the quality score of REED?
Reed's, Inc. has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5270 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3485, optimistic scenario $0.6545. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Reed's, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5270, about 48% lower versus a price of $1.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3485, optimistic scenario $0.6545. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
Reed's, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $29.1M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Reed's, Inc. pay a dividend?
Reed's, Inc. does not currently pay a dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Reed's, Inc. it is $0.5270 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $1.01. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Reed's, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, REED trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.01, fair value $0.5270, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of REED?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5270). For Reed's, Inc. the two are $0.4830 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Reed's, Inc. worth?
The market values Reed's, Inc. at about $12.0M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $1.01; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5270 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about REED?
Our models span a range for Reed's, Inc.: cautious scenario $0.3485, base $0.5270, optimistic $0.6545 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $1.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
Balance-sheet figures for Reed's, Inc. (as of Nov 4, 2026): debt of 1.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is REED from its 52-week high?
Reed's, Inc. trades at $1.01, about 87% below its 52-week high of $7.54 and 176% above the low of $0.3655 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5270 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Reed's, Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Reed's, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $1.01, calculated fair value $0.5270 (−48%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of REED calculated?
We run Reed's, Inc. through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $0.5270 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Reed's, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $1.01. Our model-based fair value is $0.5270, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Reed's, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6545). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3485 to $0.6545) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Reed's, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
The market capitalisation of Reed's, Inc. is $12.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Reed's, Inc. is 0.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
Earnings per share at Reed's, Inc. are $−1.76. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
The net margin of Reed's, Inc. is −63.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Reed's, Inc. is −14,800% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Reed's, Inc. is −53.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
The operating margin of Reed's, Inc. is −54.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Reed's, Inc. (REED)?
Revenue at Reed's, Inc. is growing −21.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Reed's, Inc. (REED) generate?
The free cash flow of Reed's, Inc. is −$17.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Reed's, Inc. (REED) hold?
Reed's, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $399K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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