Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc (REFI) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $244M
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc
REFI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −3.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 36% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($12.48). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range $8.27 – $13.57 · fair‑value band $12.48 – $21.02 · the $10.27 price screens below the $13.95 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc (REFI) currently trades at $10.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.95, implying the stock looks roughly 35.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc generated revenue of $49.8M at a net margin of 61.8%. Revenue declined 34.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. Net debt stands at $83.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.48 (bear case) to $21.02 (bull case); at $10.27, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 36%, REFI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($20.22) versus Growth DCF ($7.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States. It engages in originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties.
Full company description
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States. It engages in originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. The company's loan portfolio is comprised of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Miami Beach, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc reported revenue of $63.1M in FY2025 versus $11.1B in FY2021, a compound −72.5%/yr. Reported net income was $36.0M in FY2025, compounding −75.2%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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