Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc stock $18.40, price $8.80, upside +109.1%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $7.57 – $12.42 · fair‑value band $11.40 – $28.14 · the $8.80 price screens below the $18.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial mortgage real estate investment trust in the United States. It engages in originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties.
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The company's loan portfolio is comprised of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.
It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Miami Beach, Florida.
Stock analysis
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI) currently trades at $8.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.40, implying the stock looks roughly 52% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $22.31 per share, and 11 of the 16 models we run sit above the $8.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.05, and 5 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.40 (bear) to $28.14 (bull), the price of $8.80 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc reported revenue of $63.1M in FY2025 versus $11.1B in FY2021, a compound −72.5%/yr. Reported net income was $36.0M in FY2025, compounding −75.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $221M Micro · P/E ratio 6.4 · P/S ratio 4.53 · EPS (TTM) $1.37 · Net margin 60.2% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 691% (5-year average) · Operating margin 62.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 56% fair-value upside, at 109%, REFI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.40Fair Value $18.40Bull$28.14
Price $8.80 · Upside +109.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors bought shares worth $1.3M, most recently on Aug 27, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyJohn MazarakisExecutive Chairman, Director3× since Aug 17, 2026: 72,856 shares, avg. $10.53$766,874Aug 27, 2026
BuyPeter SackCo-Chief Executive Officer, Director5,000 shares at $10.44$52,220Aug 19, 2026
BuyAnthony CappellCo-Chief Executive Officer, Director45,000 shares at $10.41$468,450Aug 17, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−68.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−68.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.86% → 81%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.1% a year for the price and −4.5% for the forecasts.
Compare Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 31 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+109.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)60.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)62.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−7.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)21.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)6.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.72× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)4.53× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)7.7× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/REFI
Frequently asked questions
Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.40 versus a price of $8.80, about +109% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of REFI?
Our model-based fair value for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc is $18.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.80.
What is the quality score of REFI?
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.40, optimistic scenario $28.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.40, about +109% upside versus a price of $8.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.40, optimistic scenario $28.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $48.8M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -0.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -72.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of REFI use?
Our models discount Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc that is -0.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc grew -72.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -0.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (-0.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.07 %: that much free cash flow Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc it is $18.40 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $8.80. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, REFI trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.80, fair value $18.40, a gap of about +109% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of REFI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.40). For Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc the two are $9.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc worth?
The market values Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc at about $221M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $8.80; our models calculate a fair value of $18.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about REFI?
Our models span a range for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc: cautious scenario $11.40, base $18.40, optimistic $28.14 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $8.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of REFI?
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.40 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023 ex one-offs: 8.1. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 4.5, EV/EBITDA 7.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is REFI from its 52-week high?
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc trades at $8.80, about 23% below its 52-week high of $11.40 and 1% above the low of $8.68 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Rithm Capital Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $8.80, calculated fair value $18.40 (+109%), Quality Score 59/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of REFI calculated?
We run Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $18.40 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc currently trades 52% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $8.80. Our model-based fair value is $18.40, about +109% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.40). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($11.40 to $28.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
The market capitalisation of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc is $221M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc is 4.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
Earnings per share at Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc are $1.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
The net margin of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc is 60.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc is 691% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
The operating margin of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc is 62.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
Revenue at Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc is growing −7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI)?
Earnings per share at Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc are growing −17.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc (REFI) carry?
The net debt of Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc is $83.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026