Sturm, Ruger & Company (RGR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $641M
Sturm, Ruger & Company
RGR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $32.40 to $9.52 (−70.6%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 74% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.67 – $72.73 · fair‑value band $7.40 – $11.64 · the $37.11 price screens above the $9.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Sturm, Ruger & Company (RGR) currently trades at $37.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.52, implying the stock looks roughly 74.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Sturm, Ruger & Company generated revenue of $552M at a net margin of -2.2%. Revenue grew 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $16.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.40 (bear case) to $11.64 (bull case); at $37.11, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -74%, RGR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($29.27) versus Multiples ($9.63). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells firearms under the Ruger name and trademark in the United States. It operates in two segments, Firearms and Castings.
Full company description
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells firearms under the Ruger name and trademark in the United States. It operates in two segments, Firearms and Castings. The company offers single-shot, autoloading, bolt-action, and modern sporting rifles; rimfire and centerfire autoloading pistols; single-action and double-action revolvers; over-under shotguns; and firearms accessories and replacement parts, as well as manufactures lever-action rifles under the Marlin name and trademark. It also provides steel investment castings and metal injection molding (MIM) parts. The company sells its firearm products to the commercial sporting market through independent wholesale distributors; and its investment castings and MIM parts directly or through manufacturers' representatives. It also exports its firearm products through a network of selected commercial distributors and directly to foreign customers comprising primarily of law enforcement agencies and foreign governments. The company was founded in 1949 and is based in Southport, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sturm, Ruger & Company reported revenue of $546M in FY2025 versus $731M in FY2021, a compound −7.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$4.4M in FY2025.
RGR screens 74% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- 3 Reasons to Sell RGR and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.25 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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