Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc $31.95, price $41.90, upside -23.8%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.67 – $72.73 · fair‑value band $22.81 – $43.03 · the $41.90 price screens above the $31.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells firearms under the Ruger name and trademark in the United States. It operates in two segments, Firearms and Castings.
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Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells firearms under the Ruger name and trademark in the United States. It operates in two segments, Firearms and Castings. The company offers single-shot, autoloading, bolt-action, and modern sporting rifles; rimfire and centerfire autoloading pistols; single-action and double-action revolvers; over-under shotguns; and firearms accessories and replacement parts, as well as manufactures lever-action rifles under the Marlin name and trademark. It also provides steel investment castings and metal injection molding (MIM) parts. The company sells its firearm products to the commercial sporting market through independent wholesale distributors; and its investment castings and MIM parts directly or through manufacturers' representatives. It also exports its firearm products through a network of selected commercial distributors and directly to foreign customers comprising primarily of law enforcement agencies and foreign governments. The company was founded in 1949 and is based in Southport, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR) currently trades at $41.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.95, implying the stock looks roughly 31.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $29.32 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $41.90 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $9.63, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $22.81 (bear) to $43.03 (bull), the price of $41.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Sturm Ruger & Company Inc reported revenue of $546M in FY2025 versus $731M in FY2021, a compound −7.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$4.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $680M · P/S ratio 1.16 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7300 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin −0.8% · Return on equity −4.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.0% · Operating margin 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −24%, RGR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $22.81Fair Value $31.95Bull $43.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.27/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
20.9% (2020) → −2.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.5% a year for the price.
Compare Sturm Ruger & Company Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−24% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sturm Ruger & Company Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RGR
Frequently asked questions
Is Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.95 versus a price of $41.90, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RGR?
Our model-based fair value for Sturm Ruger & Company Inc is $31.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $41.90.
What is the quality score of RGR?
Sturm Ruger & Company Inc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.81, optimistic scenario $43.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sturm Ruger & Company Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.95, about −24% upside versus a price of $41.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.81, optimistic scenario $43.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
Sturm Ruger & Company Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $552M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Sturm Ruger & Company Inc pay a dividend?
Sturm Ruger & Company Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sturm Ruger & Company Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +4.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RGR use?
Our models discount Sturm Ruger & Company Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sturm Ruger & Company Inc that is +4.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sturm Ruger & Company Inc grew -0.8 % a year. The price currently implies +4.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (+4.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.65 %: that much free cash flow Sturm Ruger & Company Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sturm Ruger & Company Inc it is $31.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $41.90. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sturm Ruger & Company Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RGR trades above its calculated fair value: price $41.90, fair value $31.95, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RGR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($41.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.95). For Sturm Ruger & Company Inc the two are $9.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sturm Ruger & Company Inc worth?
The market values Sturm Ruger & Company Inc at about $680M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $41.90; our models calculate a fair value of $31.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RGR?
Our models span a range for Sturm Ruger & Company Inc: cautious scenario $22.81, base $31.95, optimistic $43.03 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $41.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −4.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RGR from its 52-week high?
Sturm Ruger & Company Inc trades at $41.90, about 11% below its 52-week high of $46.84 and 46% above the low of $28.67 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sturm Ruger & Company Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sturm Ruger & Company Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $41.90, calculated fair value $31.95 (−24%), Quality Score 61/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RGR calculated?
We run Sturm Ruger & Company Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $31.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Sturm Ruger & Company Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $41.90. Our model-based fair value is $31.95, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sturm Ruger & Company Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($22.81 to $43.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR) come from?
Earnings per share at Sturm Ruger & Company Inc grew −4.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin −8.3 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
The market capitalisation of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc is $680M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc is 1.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
Earnings per share at Sturm Ruger & Company Inc are $−0.7300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
The dividend yield of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc is 0.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
The net margin of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc is −0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc is −4.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc is 17.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
The operating margin of Sturm Ruger & Company Inc is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
Revenue at Sturm Ruger & Company Inc is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR)?
Earnings per share at Sturm Ruger & Company Inc are growing −98.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sturm Ruger & Company Inc (RGR) hold?
Sturm Ruger & Company Inc holds more cash than debt, $16.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 23, 2026