Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Red Rock Resorts Inc stock $30.31, price $48.22, that is 37.1% below the price, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.94 – $66.94 · fair‑value band $11.96 – $51.22 · the $48.22 price screens above the $30.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Red Rock Resorts, Inc., through its interest in Station Casinos LLC, develops and manages casino and entertainment properties in the United States. It owns and operates gaming and entertainment facilities, including Durango Casino & Resort and smaller casinos in the Las Vegas regional market.
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The company was formerly known as Station Casinos Corp. and changed its name to Red Rock Resorts, Inc. in January 2016. Red Rock Resorts, Inc. was founded in 1976 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock analysis
Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) currently trades at $48.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.31, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $69.97 per share, and 6 of the 23 models we run sit above the $48.22 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $13.67, and 17 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.96 (bear) to $51.22 (bull), the price of $48.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Red Rock Resorts Inc reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $188M in FY2025, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.0B Mid · P/E ratio 24.6 · P/S ratio 1.40 · EPS (TTM) $1.98 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 5.8% · Return on equity 109% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −37%, RRR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.96Fair Value $30.31Bull$51.22
Price $48.22 · Downside -37.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8035 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleScott KreegerPresident31,159 shares at $61.78$1.9MAug 7, 2026
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+0.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.5% vs −3.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 30%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.4% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The locals-focused casino model supports solid cash generation and dividends, while revenue and margin pressures from property renovations and high leverage act as the main constraints.
Main risk: Continued property renovations and construction activity could sustain pressure on margins and cash generation at the locals-focused sites given the leveraged balance sheet.
Red Rock Resorts is dealing with revenue and margin pressure from property renovations and construction activity at sites like Green Valley Ranch. Its locals-focused casino model still supports solid cash generation and dividends despite the disruptions and a leveraged balance sheet. Will the Durango expansions and other projects generate enough long-term growth to overcome these near-term headwinds, or will the renovation costs and leverage keep constraining results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−37.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)108.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)5.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity16.22× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.6× · Pricier than median
P/B23.82× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Red Rock Resorts Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RRR
Frequently asked questions
Is Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $30.31 versus a price of $48.22, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RRR?
Our model-based fair value for Red Rock Resorts Inc is $30.31 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $48.22.
What is the quality score of RRR?
Red Rock Resorts Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $30.31 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.96, optimistic scenario $51.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Red Rock Resorts Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $30.31, about 37% lower versus a price of $48.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.96, optimistic scenario $51.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Red Rock Resorts Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Red Rock Resorts Inc pay a dividend?
Red Rock Resorts Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Red Rock Resorts Inc pays a dividend of $1.04 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2016. The payout ratio is 27.7% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 52.5%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 4.70 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Red Rock Resorts Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +13.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RRR use?
Our models discount Red Rock Resorts Inc at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.40, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Red Rock Resorts Inc that is +13.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Red Rock Resorts Inc grew +11.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +13.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Red Rock Resorts Inc (+13.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.19 %: that much free cash flow Red Rock Resorts Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Red Rock Resorts Inc it is $30.31 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $48.22. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Red Rock Resorts Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, RRR trades above its calculated fair value: price $48.22, fair value $30.31, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RRR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($48.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($30.31). For Red Rock Resorts Inc the two are $17.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Red Rock Resorts Inc worth?
The market values Red Rock Resorts Inc at about $5.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $48.22; our models calculate a fair value of $30.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RRR?
Our models span a range for Red Rock Resorts Inc: cautious scenario $11.96, base $30.31, optimistic $51.22 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $48.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RRR?
Red Rock Resorts Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $30.31 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 13.9 (reported for FY2025: 26.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 14.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 23.8, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 22.2.
What is the PEG ratio of RRR?
The PEG ratio of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 1.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Red Rock Resorts Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 108.9%, debt of 16.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RRR from its 52-week high?
Red Rock Resorts Inc trades at $48.22, about 28% below its 52-week high of $66.94 and 1% above the low of $47.96 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $30.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Red Rock Resorts Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Red Rock Resorts Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $48.22, calculated fair value $30.31 (−37%), Quality Score 51/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RRR calculated?
We run Red Rock Resorts Inc through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $30.31 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Red Rock Resorts Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $48.22. Our model-based fair value is $30.31, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Red Rock Resorts Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($11.96 to $51.22). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) come from?
Earnings per share at Red Rock Resorts Inc grew −6.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.4 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate +4.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Red Rock Resorts Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The market capitalisation of Red Rock Resorts Inc is $5.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 1.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Earnings per share at Red Rock Resorts Inc are $1.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The dividend yield of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 2.2% (payout 27.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 52.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The net margin of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 5.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 109% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 14.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
The operating margin of Red Rock Resorts Inc is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Revenue at Red Rock Resorts Inc is growing +2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR)?
Earnings per share at Red Rock Resorts Inc are growing −29.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Red Rock Resorts Inc (RRR) hold?
Red Rock Resorts Inc holds more cash than debt, $84.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026