Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Seria Co. Ltd stock $27.45, price $27.49, that is 0.1% below the price, quality 80 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.70 – $45.99 · fair‑value band $18.55 – $36.64 · the $27.49 price screens above the $27.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Seria Co., Ltd. operates stores in Japan. The company's stores sell merchandise and private brand products. It operates directly managed and franchise chain stores. It offers its products through permanent in-shop stores, tenants in commercial facilities, and independent roadside stores.
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The company was formerly known as Sanyo Agency Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Seria Co., Ltd. in April 2003. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Ogaki, Japan.
Stock analysis
Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF) currently trades at $27.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.45, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $34.08 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the $27.49 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.66, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.55 (bear) to $36.64 (bull), the price of $27.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Seria Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥256B in FY2026 versus ¥208B in FY2022, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥14.7B in FY2026, compounding +0.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B Small · P/E ratio 29.6 · P/S ratio 1.70 · EPS (TTM) $0.9300 · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 8.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% above its previous 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 0%, SAOGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$18.55Fair Value $27.45Bull$36.64
Price $27.49 · Downside -0.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5656 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 8%
2026 sits 72% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.1% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Discount Stores · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−0.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.9% · Below median
Return on assets11.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)6.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)8.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)29.6× · Pricier than median
P/B2.93× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.03× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)24.4× · Pricier than median
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Is Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.45 versus the last price from Oct 30, 2026 of $27.49, about 0% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SAOGF?
Our model-based fair value for Seria Co. Ltd is $27.45 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 30, 2026): $27.49.
What is the quality score of SAOGF?
Seria Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.45 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.55, optimistic scenario $36.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Seria Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.45, about 0% lower versus the last price from Oct 30, 2026 of $27.49 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $18.55, optimistic scenario $36.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
Seria Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥265B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Seria Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +12.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.0 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAOGF use?
Our models discount Seria Co. Ltd at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Seria Co. Ltd that is +12.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Seria Co. Ltd grew +5.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +12.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Seria Co. Ltd (+12.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.09 %: that much free cash flow Seria Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Seria Co. Ltd it is $27.45 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $27.49. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Seria Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SAOGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $27.49, fair value $27.45, a gap of about −0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAOGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($27.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.45). For Seria Co. Ltd the two are $0.0408 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Seria Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Seria Co. Ltd at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $27.49; our models calculate a fair value of $27.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAOGF?
Our models span a range for Seria Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $18.55, base $27.45, optimistic $36.64 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $27.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAOGF?
Seria Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $27.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.9, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Seria Co. Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 15.9%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAOGF from its 52-week high?
Seria Co. Ltd trades at $27.49, about 33% above its previous 52-week high of $20.61 and 35% above the low of $20.36 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Seria Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Walmart Inc, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Target Corporation, Dollarama Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Seria Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $27.49, calculated fair value $27.45 (−0%), Quality Score 80/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAOGF calculated?
We run Seria Co. Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $27.45 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Seria Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 30, 2026 and stands at $27.49. Our model-based fair value is $27.45, about 0% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Seria Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($18.55 to $36.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Seria Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
The market capitalisation of Seria Co. Ltd is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Seria Co. Ltd is 1.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
Earnings per share at Seria Co. Ltd are $0.9300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
The net margin of Seria Co. Ltd is 5.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Seria Co. Ltd is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Seria Co. Ltd is 13.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
The operating margin of Seria Co. Ltd is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
Revenue at Seria Co. Ltd is growing +15.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Seria Co. Ltd (SAOGF)?
Earnings per share at Seria Co. Ltd are growing +80.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026