Shengfeng Development Limited (SFWL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $75.1M
Shengfeng Development Limited
SFWL · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $2.77 to $2.06 (−25.7%) since Aug 12, 2026. Share price +17.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 132% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.41). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.41 to $2.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
40‑month range $0.6850 – $16.79 · fair‑value band $1.41 – $2.70 · the $0.8857 price screens below the $2.06 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Shengfeng Development Limited (SFWL) currently trades at $0.8857, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.06, implying the stock looks roughly 132.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Shengfeng Development Limited generated revenue of $572M at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 11.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.3%. Net debt stands at $58.5M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.41 (bear case) to $2.70 (bull case); at $0.8857, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at 132%, SFWL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($3.12) versus DCF Models ($0.9100). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shengfeng Development Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides contract logistics services in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Shengfeng Development Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides contract logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers business-to-business freight transportation services, such as full truckload and less than truckload; and cloud storage services, including warehouse management, pick and pack, order fulfillment, kitting and assembly, delivery process management, in-warehouse processing, and inventory optimization management services. It also provides value-added services comprising collection on delivery, customs declaration, delivery upstairs, packaging, pay-at-arrival, return proof of delivery, and shipment protection; and software engineering, supply chain management, and technical and development services; inbound, outbound, and reverse logistics; and line-haul and short-haul distribution services. The company serves clients in various industries, including manufacturing, new energy, telecommunications, internet, fashion, fast moving consumer goods, publishing, agriculture, and e-commerce. Shengfeng Development Limited was founded in 2001 and is based in Fuzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shengfeng Development Limited reported revenue of $572M in FY2025 versus $347M in FY2021, a compound +13.4%/yr. Reported net income was $11.9M in FY2025, compounding +14.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 218 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $103.91 | $103.34 | -1% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $326.77 | $347.68 | +6% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €55.32 | €53.18 | -4% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,380 | kr 712.57 | -48% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $275.96 | $133.80 | -52% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥32.96 | ¥48.64 | +48% |
| ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc 2057 | HK$185.20 | HK$224.26 | +21% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 199,700 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +135% |
| YTO Express Group 600233 | ¥18.48 | ¥26.51 | +43% |
| JD Logistics, Inc 2618 | HK$14.17 | HK$21.45 | +51% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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