SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SIMPAR S.A stock BRL 2.73, price BRL 5.24, upside -47.9%, quality 20 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$0.0001 – R$31.31 · fair‑value band R$1.18 – R$3.42 · the R$5.24 price screens above the R$2.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 28, 2026.
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SIMPAR S.A. provides light vehicle rental, and fleet management and outsourcing services in Brazil.
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The company provides road logistics; car rental and fleet management sector; rental of trucks, machinery, and equipment; Volkswagen/man truck and bus dealerships; and light and heavy vehicle fleets, including complete service management, customization, maintenance, and fleet operation with driver.
It operates car and motorcycle retail business; manages and outsources fleets of light and heavy vehicle to the public sector, municipal passenger transport, and urban cleaning sectors; and offers financial solutions and services.
SIMPAR S.A. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. SIMPAR S.A. is a subsidiary of JSP Holding S.A.
Stock analysis
SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3) currently trades at R$5.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$2.73, 47.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of R$4.32 per share, and 4 of the 16 models we run sit above the R$5.24 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$0.7900, and 12 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R$1.18 (bear) to R$3.42 (bull), the price of R$5.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
SIMPAR S.A reported revenue of R$43.5B in FY2025 versus R$13.9B in FY2021, a compound +33.1%/yr. Reported net income was R$39.5M in FY2025, compounding −53.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$3.4B (≈ $638M) Small · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) R$−0.2100 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin −0.4% · Return on equity −0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.8% · Operating margin 18.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −48%, SIMH3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR$1.18Fair Value R$2.73BullR$3.42
Price R$5.24 · Upside -47.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual IncomeR$4.74R$4.32R$4.0276
Owner EarningsR$21.26R$54.88R$113.0770
EPVR$2.48R$4.44R$6.0270
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
Owner EarningsR$21.26R$54.88R$113.0770
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddR$0.4600R$3.21R$4.5063
Lynch FVR$1.05R$1.50R$1.9561
PEG = 1.0R$1.05R$1.50R$1.9557
EPVR$2.48R$4.44R$6.0270
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMR$0.5000R$0.8300R$1.0768
DDM Multi-StageR$0.5000R$0.7900R$0.890067
Multiples
P/E MultipleR$1.06R$1.42R$1.7763
P/S MultipleR$0.8600R$1.15R$1.4457
P/B MultipleR$0.0100R$0.0100R$0.010055
EV/EBITR$15.39R$26.57R$37.7563
EV/EBITDAR$22.64R$36.23R$49.8265
EV/Revenuen/aR$6.77R$14.2449
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeR$4.74R$4.32R$4.0276
ROIC CompounderR$2.48R$4.44R$6.0269
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/ER$1.39R$1.99R$2.5967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.9% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−31.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−32.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −32.5% / 1.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 19%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 89 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SIMPAR S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SIMH3
Frequently asked questions
Is SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$2.73 versus a price of R$5.24, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SIMH3?
Our model-based fair value for SIMPAR S.A is R$2.73 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$5.24.
What is the quality score of SIMH3?
SIMPAR S.A has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$2.73 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$1.18, optimistic scenario R$3.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SIMPAR S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$2.73, about −48% upside versus a price of R$5.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$1.18, optimistic scenario R$3.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
SIMPAR S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$45.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does SIMPAR S.A pay a dividend?
SIMPAR S.A currently shows a dividend yield of 1.02% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SIMPAR S.A it is R$2.73 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of R$5.24. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SIMPAR S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, SIMH3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$5.24, fair value R$2.73, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIMH3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$5.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$2.73). For SIMPAR S.A the two are R$2.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SIMPAR S.A worth?
The market values SIMPAR S.A at about R$3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is R$5.24; our models calculate a fair value of R$2.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIMH3?
Our models span a range for SIMPAR S.A: cautious scenario R$1.18, base R$2.73, optimistic R$3.42 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price R$5.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
Balance-sheet figures for SIMPAR S.A (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity −0.2%, debt of 10.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SIMH3 from its 52-week high?
SIMPAR S.A trades at R$5.24, about 70% below its 52-week high of R$17.26 and at the low of R$5.24 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$2.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SIMPAR S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SIMPAR S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price R$5.24, calculated fair value R$2.73 (−48%), Quality Score 20/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIMH3 calculated?
We run SIMPAR S.A through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$2.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. SIMPAR S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was R$5.24. Our model-based fair value is R$2.73, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SIMPAR S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$3.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (R$1.18 to R$3.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of SIMPAR S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
The market capitalisation of SIMPAR S.A is R$3.4B (≈ $638M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SIMPAR S.A is 0.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
Earnings per share at SIMPAR S.A are R$−0.2100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
The dividend yield of SIMPAR S.A is 1.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
The net margin of SIMPAR S.A is −0.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SIMPAR S.A is −0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SIMPAR S.A is 7.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
The operating margin of SIMPAR S.A is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
Revenue at SIMPAR S.A is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3)?
Earnings per share at SIMPAR S.A are growing +283% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3) generate?
The free cash flow of SIMPAR S.A is −R$1.9B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does SIMPAR S.A (SIMH3) carry?
The net debt of SIMPAR S.A is R$57.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 28, 2026