Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $16.6M
Smith Micro Software, Inc
SMSI · US
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated today
Share price +14.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 54% overvalued on our models.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.20 – $248.40 · fair‑value band $1.26 – $1.56 · the $2.98 price screens above the $1.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI) currently trades at $2.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.38, implying the stock looks roughly 53.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $17.0M. Revenue declined 8.7% year over year. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.26 (bear case) to $1.56 (bull case); at $2.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -42% fair-value upside, at -54%, SMSI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($2.20) versus Dividend Discount ($1.02). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Smith Micro Software, Inc. develops and sells software solutions to simplify and enhance the mobile experience to wireless and cable service providers in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
Full company description
Smith Micro Software, Inc. develops and sells software solutions to simplify and enhance the mobile experience to wireless and cable service providers in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers SafePath OS, SafePath Kids, SafePath Family, SafePath Global, SafePath Drive, OS for senior phone, SafePath 8, drive, digital wellness, and SafePath IoT, which provides tools to protect digital lifestyles and manage connected devices inside and outside the home; and CommSuite, a messaging platform that helps mobile service provides deliver a next-generation voicemail experience to mobile subscribers, and CommSuite visual voicemail and premium visual voicemail, as well as enables multi-language voice-to-text (VTT) transcription messaging. It also engages in family safety cloud-based, and consulting services. Smith Micro Software, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Smith Micro Software, Inc reported revenue of $17.4M in FY2025 versus $58.4M in FY2021, a compound −26.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$30.1M in FY2025.
SMSI screens 54% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 726 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.46 | C$16.26 | +30% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$209.78 | C$28.76 | -86% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $75.36 | $43.66 | -42% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $193.32 | $249.28 | +29% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $124.94 | $43.73 | -65% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $323.13 | $112.57 | -65% |
| Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Inc 688111 | ¥254.50 | ¥81.23 | -68% |
| Tata Elxsi Limited TATAELXSI | ₹3,712 | ₹2,519 | -32% |
| Douzone Bizon Co 012510 | 120,000 KRW | 92,181 KRW | -23% |
| KFin Technologies Limited KFINTECH | ₹962.00 | ₹554.07 | -42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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