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Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Smith Micro Software, Inc $1.17, price $2.65, upside -56.0%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · US · ISIN US8321545043

SM Smith Micro Software, Inc logo Thin data Oct 3, 2026

Smith Micro Software, Inc

SMSI · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Low debt
Fair value $1.17 · Strongly overvalued (−56.0%)
Quality 33/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −19.5 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -92.6% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/11)
Narrow moat 20/100
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$248.40 $2.20 Fair Value $1.17 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.20 – $248.40 · fair‑value band $1.06 – $1.32 · the $2.65 price screens above the $1.17 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Smith Micro Software, Inc. develops and sells software solutions to simplify and enhance the mobile experience to wireless and cable service providers in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

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Smith Micro Software, Inc. develops and sells software solutions to simplify and enhance the mobile experience to wireless and cable service providers in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers SafePath OS, SafePath Kids, SafePath Family, SafePath Global, SafePath Drive, OS for senior phone, SafePath 8, drive, digital wellness, and SafePath IoT, which provides tools to protect digital lifestyles and manage connected devices inside and outside the home; and CommSuite, a messaging platform that helps mobile service provides deliver a next-generation voicemail experience to mobile subscribers, and CommSuite visual voicemail and premium visual voicemail, as well as enables multi-language voice-to-text (VTT) transcription messaging. It also engages in family safety cloud-based, and consulting services. Smith Micro Software, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI) currently trades at $2.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.17, 56.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $2.20 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $2.65 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.32, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $1.06 (bear) to $1.32 (bull), the price of $2.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Smith Micro Software, Inc reported revenue of $17.4M in FY2025 versus $58.4M in FY2021, a compound −26.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$30.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $13.8M · P/S ratio 0.88 · EPS (TTM) $−3.18 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin −92.6% · Return on equity −78.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −51.6% · Operating margin −54.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −56%, SMSI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.06 Fair Value $1.17 Bull $1.32
Price $2.65 · Upside -56.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $1.21 $1.32 $1.48 69
DDM Multi-Stage $1.21 $1.49 $1.88 67
NCAV (Graham) $1.64 $2.20 $3.29 54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.21 $1.32 $1.48 69
DDM Multi-Stage $1.21 $1.49 $1.88 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.64 $2.20 $3.29 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 20
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−29.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.9% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.9% (2020) → −110.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

SMSI screens overvalued: fair value 56% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 676 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −56.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −32.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −92.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −54.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −1.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.09× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.75× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.82× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.25× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 41
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)96 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 34

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €186.74 €172.46 −8%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $229.57 $342.73 +49%
Shopify Inc SHOP $151.39 $64.36 −57%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $134.01 $147.41 +10%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $68.11 $103.69 +52%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $341.04 $74.36 −78%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $257.68 $150.01 −42%
Adobe Inc ADBE $239.94 $454.04 +89%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $277.22 $32.52 −88%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $351.35 $225.48 −36%

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Smith Micro Software, Inc · Fair Value
$1.17 −56%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Smith Micro Software, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMSI

Frequently asked questions

Is Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.17 versus a price of $2.65, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMSI?
Our model-based fair value for Smith Micro Software, Inc is $1.17 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.65.
What is the quality score of SMSI?
Smith Micro Software, Inc has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.17 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.06, optimistic scenario $1.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Smith Micro Software, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.17, about −56% upside versus a price of $2.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.06, optimistic scenario $1.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
Smith Micro Software, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.9M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Smith Micro Software, Inc pay a dividend?
Smith Micro Software, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.19% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smith Micro Software, Inc it is $1.17 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $2.65. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Smith Micro Software, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, SMSI trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.65, fair value $1.17, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMSI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.17). For Smith Micro Software, Inc the two are $1.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Smith Micro Software, Inc worth?
The market values Smith Micro Software, Inc at about $13.8M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $2.65; our models calculate a fair value of $1.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMSI?
Our models span a range for Smith Micro Software, Inc: cautious scenario $1.06, base $1.17, optimistic $1.32 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $2.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SMSI?
The PEG ratio of Smith Micro Software, Inc is 1.25 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Smith Micro Software, Inc (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −78.7%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMSI from its 52-week high?
Smith Micro Software, Inc trades at $2.65, about 42% below its 52-week high of $4.55 and 20% above the low of $2.20 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Smith Micro Software, Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Smith Micro Software, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $2.65, calculated fair value $1.17 (−56%), Quality Score 33/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMSI calculated?
We run Smith Micro Software, Inc through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Smith Micro Software, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was $2.65. Our model-based fair value is $1.17, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Smith Micro Software, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Smith Micro Software, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
The market capitalisation of Smith Micro Software, Inc is $13.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Smith Micro Software, Inc is 0.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
Earnings per share at Smith Micro Software, Inc are $−3.18. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
The dividend yield of Smith Micro Software, Inc is 5.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
The net margin of Smith Micro Software, Inc is −92.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Smith Micro Software, Inc is −78.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smith Micro Software, Inc is −51.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
The operating margin of Smith Micro Software, Inc is −54.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
Revenue at Smith Micro Software, Inc is growing −1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −29.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI)?
Earnings per share at Smith Micro Software, Inc are growing −84.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI) generate?
The free cash flow of Smith Micro Software, Inc is −$7.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Smith Micro Software, Inc (SMSI) carry?
The net debt of Smith Micro Software, Inc is $844K (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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