Santova Ltd (SNV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Santova Ltd ZAR 27.67, price ZAR 8.49, upside +225.9%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R3.25 – R9.80 · fair‑value band R19.46 – R40.55 · the R8.49 price screens below the R27.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Santova Limited provides logistics services in Africa, the Asia Pacific, Europe, North America, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through Logistics Services and Financial Services segments.
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Santova Limited provides logistics services in Africa, the Asia Pacific, Europe, North America, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through Logistics Services and Financial Services segments. It provides international trade services, including supply chain engineering, logistics, global project management, client sourcing and procurement, express courier, and financial services; and development, implementation, analysis, management, and supply chain optimization services through cloud-based technologies and software packages. The company also offers business intelligence solutions that enables digital transformation through cloud-based technologies to unlock data for analysis or predictive analytics; insurance solutions; and value add services. Santova Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Durban, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Santova Ltd (SNV) currently trades at R8.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R27.67, implying the stock looks roughly 69.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R46.15 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the R8.49 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R6.77, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R19.46 (bear) to R40.55 (bull), the price of R8.49 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Santova Ltd reported revenue of 1.2B ZAR in FY2026 versus 633M ZAR in FY2022, a compound +17.0%/yr. Reported net income was 137M ZAR in FY2026, compounding −5.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B ZAC · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 0.93 · EPS (TTM) R1.06 · Net margin 11.6% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.0% · Operating margin 19.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 226%, SNV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R19.46Fair Value R27.67Bull R40.55
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.6302 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+88.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.2% vs 12.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 16%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −15.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 203 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Santova Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SNV
Frequently asked questions
Is Santova Ltd (SNV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R27.67 versus a price of R8.49, about +226% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SNV?
Our model-based fair value for Santova Ltd is R27.67 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R8.49.
What is the quality score of SNV?
Santova Ltd has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Santova Ltd (SNV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R27.67 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R19.46, optimistic scenario R40.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Santova Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R27.67, about +226% upside versus a price of R8.49 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R19.46, optimistic scenario R40.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Santova Ltd (SNV)?
Santova Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Santova Ltd (SNV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Santova Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -12.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.1 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SNV use?
Our models discount Santova Ltd at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Santova Ltd that is -12.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Santova Ltd (SNV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Santova Ltd grew +21.1 % a year. The price currently implies -12.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Santova Ltd (SNV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Santova Ltd (-12.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Santova Ltd (SNV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.27 %: that much free cash flow Santova Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Santova Ltd (SNV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Santova Ltd it is R27.67 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of R8.49. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Santova Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, SNV trades below its calculated fair value: price R8.49, fair value R27.67, a gap of about +226% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SNV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R8.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R27.67). For Santova Ltd the two are R19.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Santova Ltd worth?
The market values Santova Ltd at about 1.1B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is R8.49; our models calculate a fair value of R27.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SNV?
Our models span a range for Santova Ltd: cautious scenario R19.46, base R27.67, optimistic R40.55 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price R8.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SNV?
Santova Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R27.67 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 3.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Santova Ltd (SNV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Santova Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 10.8%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SNV from its 52-week high?
Santova Ltd trades at R8.49, about 2% below its 52-week high of R8.65 and 33% above the low of R6.40 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R27.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Santova Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Santova Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price R8.49, calculated fair value R27.67 (+226%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SNV calculated?
We run Santova Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R27.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Santova Ltd currently trades 69 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Santova Ltd (SNV)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R8.49. Our model-based fair value is R27.67, about +226% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Santova Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (R19.46). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (R19.46 to R40.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Santova Ltd (SNV) come from?
Earnings per share at Santova Ltd grew +14.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.3 %, EBIT margin −1.9 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Santova Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Santova Ltd (SNV)?
The market capitalisation of Santova Ltd is 1.1B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Santova Ltd (SNV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Santova Ltd is 0.93 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Santova Ltd (SNV)?
Earnings per share at Santova Ltd are R1.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Santova Ltd (SNV)?
The net margin of Santova Ltd is 11.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Santova Ltd (SNV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Santova Ltd is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Santova Ltd (SNV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Santova Ltd is 12.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Santova Ltd (SNV)?
The operating margin of Santova Ltd is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Santova Ltd (SNV)?
Revenue at Santova Ltd is growing +116% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Santova Ltd (SNV)?
Earnings per share at Santova Ltd are growing +4.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Santova Ltd (SNV) hold?
Santova Ltd holds more cash than debt, 18.6M ZAC net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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