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The SPAR Group (SPP) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · ZA · Market cap 9.1B ZAC

TS The SPAR Group SPP · JSE
PriceR45.44
Fair ValueR104.92
Upside+130.9%
Quality51/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -0.3% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (5/13)
Narrow moat 25/100
Evidence: Medium Range R61.14 – R148.69 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −2.7% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 131% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (R61.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (R61.14 to R148.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R195.33 R44.00 Fair Value R104.92 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R44.00 – R195.33 · fair‑value band R61.14 – R148.69 · the R45.44 price screens below the R104.92 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

The SPAR Group (SPP) currently trades at R45.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R104.92, implying the stock looks roughly 130.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, The SPAR Group generated revenue of 131B ZAR at a net margin of -3.7%. Revenue declined 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. Net debt stands at 13.5B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R61.14 (bear case) to R148.69 (bull case); at R45.44, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -29% fair-value upside, at 131%, SPP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF R178.31 R291.20 R460.70 80
Rev-Margin DCF R108.15 R173.32 R251.79 74
ROIC Compounder R57.75 R79.90 R107.42 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R176.98 R293.60 R471.52 38
5Y Revenue Exit R108.15 R171.80 R251.97 39
5Y EBITDA Exit R155.29 R262.61 R389.31 41
10Y Revenue Exit R128.72 R193.39 R279.71 36
10Y EBITDA Exit R161.28 R256.02 R385.05 37
Earnings-Based
EPV R52.01 R63.30 R73.05 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R80.74 R160.88 R243.62 70
DDM Multi-Stage R80.74 R139.04 R169.82 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT R111.78 R155.56 R199.33 53
EV/EBITDA R162.08 R222.61 R283.15 54
EV/Revenue R74.19 R114.36 R154.53 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R13.79 R18.48 R27.58 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R178.31 R291.20 R460.70 80
Rev-Margin DCF R108.15 R173.32 R251.79 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder R57.75 R79.90 R107.42 72

Widest divergence: DCF Models (R256.02) versus Asset-Based (R18.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 134B ZAC
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.6%
Net margin -0.3%
Return on equity 5.8%
Free cash flow 3.4B ZAC FY2025
P/E ratio 25.5
More key figures
Operating margin 1.1%
EPS (TTM) R1.78
EPS growth (YoY) -93.1%
Net debt 13.5B ZAC FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 6
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

The SPAR Group Ltd engages in the wholesale and distribution of goods and services to grocery stores and other group retail outlets in South Africa and internationally.

Full company description

The SPAR Group Ltd engages in the wholesale and distribution of goods and services to grocery stores and other group retail outlets in South Africa and internationally. The company offers fresh produce, in-store bakery, butchery, deli, ready-to-eat meals, home-meal replacements, groceries, general merchandise, baked foods, liquor products, building and hardware products, coffee, dispensary and health-related products, confectionery, health and beauty, frozen foods, catering products, wines, and non-food items. The SPAR Group Ltd operates stores under the SUPERSPAR, SPAR, KWIKSPAR, SPAR EXPRESS, PHARMACY at SPAR, TOPS at SPAR, and SAVEMOR brands. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Pinetown, South Africa.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

The SPAR Group reported revenue of R131B in FY2025 versus R128B in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was −R4.8B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 39/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
131B ZAR
Latest YoY
−13.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.1%
Avg. growth/yr (20Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.0%
Revenue +0.7%/yr
FY21 R128B
FY22 R136B
FY23 R146B
FY24 R152B
FY25 R131B
Net income
FY21 R2.3B
FY22 R2.2B
FY23 R401M
FY24 R352M
FY25 −R4.8B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −15.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.3 pp

of which total revenue +8.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.5 pp

EBIT margin −6.1 pp
Tax rate −5.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −12.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The SPAR Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPP

Peer Group

Food Distribution · 76 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +139% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth 4% · Above median
Debt / equity 1.23× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.11× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 109.40× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 23
FUTURE 18 · sector 12
PAST 23 · sector 35
HEALTH 39 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 37

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sysco Corporation SYY $84.69 $59.83 -29%
US Foods Holding USFD $110.94 $53.53 -52%
Performance Food Group PFGC $113.96 $37.94 -67%
Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT €17.68 €21.59 +22%
CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT 14.80 THB 17.42 THB +18%
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF $111.07 $37.27 -66%
Olam Group VC2 1.34 SGD 2.12 SGD +58%
United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI $47.27 $6.00 -87%
The Andersons, Inc ANDE $65.61 $47.78 -27%
Zhejiang Dongri Limited 600113 ¥31.47 ¥6.75 -79%

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Frequently asked questions

Is The SPAR Group (SPP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R104.92 versus a price of R45.44, about +131% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SPP?
Our model-based fair value for The SPAR Group is R104.92 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R45.44.
What is the quality score of SPP?
The SPAR Group has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of The SPAR Group (SPP)?
The SPAR Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 131B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SPP?
The net profit margin of The SPAR Group is about -3.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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