SPAR Group Ltd (SPP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of SPAR Group Ltd ZAR 105, price ZAR 45.80, upside +129.1%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R37.88 – R195.33 · fair‑value band R61.14 – R148.69 · the R45.80 price screens below the R104.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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The SPAR Group Ltd engages in the wholesale and distribution of goods and services to grocery stores and other group retail outlets in South Africa and internationally.
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The SPAR Group Ltd engages in the wholesale and distribution of goods and services to grocery stores and other group retail outlets in South Africa and internationally. The company offers fresh produce, in-store bakery, butchery, deli, ready-to-eat meals, home-meal replacements, groceries, general merchandise, baked foods, liquor products, building and hardware products, coffee, dispensary and health-related products, confectionery, health and beauty, frozen foods, catering products, wines, and non-food items. The SPAR Group Ltd operates stores under the SUPERSPAR, SPAR, KWIKSPAR, SPAR EXPRESS, PHARMACY at SPAR, TOPS at SPAR, and SAVEMOR brands. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Pinetown, South Africa.
Stock analysis
SPAR Group Ltd (SPP) currently trades at R45.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R104.92, implying the stock looks roughly 56.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R266.65 per share, and 12 of the 13 models we run sit above the R45.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R18.48, and 1 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R61.14 (bear) to R148.69 (bull), the price of R45.80 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
SPAR Group Ltd reported revenue of 131B ZAR in FY2025 versus 128B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was −4.8B ZAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 8.8B ZAC · P/E ratio 25.7 · P/S ratio 0.07 · EPS (TTM) R1.78 · Net margin −3.7% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% · Operating margin 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 129%, SPP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R61.14Fair Value R104.92Bull R148.69
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.78 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−13.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.8% (2020) → 1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−13.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.4% a year for the price and +0.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food Distribution · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside+129.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.8% · Below median
Return on assets2.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−0.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.23× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)25.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.10× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SPAR Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPP
Frequently asked questions
Is SPAR Group Ltd (SPP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R104.92 versus a price of R45.80, about +129% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SPP?
Our model-based fair value for SPAR Group Ltd is R104.92 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R45.80.
What is the quality score of SPP?
SPAR Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R104.92 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario R61.14, optimistic scenario R148.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SPAR Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R104.92, about +129% upside versus a price of R45.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R61.14, optimistic scenario R148.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
SPAR Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 134B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SPAR Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -13.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPP use?
Our models discount SPAR Group Ltd at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.05, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SPAR Group Ltd that is -13.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SPAR Group Ltd (SPP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SPAR Group Ltd grew +1.1 % a year. The price currently implies -13.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SPAR Group Ltd (-13.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 38.27 %: that much free cash flow SPAR Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SPAR Group Ltd it is R104.92 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of R45.80. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SPAR Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, SPP trades below its calculated fair value: price R45.80, fair value R104.92, a gap of about +129% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R45.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R104.92). For SPAR Group Ltd the two are R59.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SPAR Group Ltd worth?
The market values SPAR Group Ltd at about 8.8B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is R45.80; our models calculate a fair value of R104.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPP?
Our models span a range for SPAR Group Ltd: cautious scenario R61.14, base R104.92, optimistic R148.69 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price R45.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SPP?
SPAR Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R104.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 109.4, P/B 0.1, EV/EBITDA 2.0.
What is the PEG ratio of SPP?
The PEG ratio of SPAR Group Ltd is 109.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
Balance-sheet figures for SPAR Group Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 1.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPP from its 52-week high?
SPAR Group Ltd trades at R45.80, about 58% below its 52-week high of R109.74 and 21% above the low of R37.88 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R104.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SPAR Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, US Foods Holding, Performance Food Group, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SPAR Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price R45.80, calculated fair value R104.92 (+129%), Quality Score 51/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPP calculated?
We run SPAR Group Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R104.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. SPAR Group Ltd currently trades 129 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was R45.80. Our model-based fair value is R104.92, about +129% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SPAR Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R61.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R61.14 to R148.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP) come from?
Earnings per share at SPAR Group Ltd grew −15.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin −6.1 %, tax rate −5.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −12.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of SPAR Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
The market capitalisation of SPAR Group Ltd is 8.8B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SPAR Group Ltd is 0.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
Earnings per share at SPAR Group Ltd are R1.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
The net margin of SPAR Group Ltd is −3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SPAR Group Ltd is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SPAR Group Ltd is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
The operating margin of SPAR Group Ltd is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
Revenue at SPAR Group Ltd is growing +3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SPAR Group Ltd (SPP)?
Earnings per share at SPAR Group Ltd are growing −93.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SPAR Group Ltd (SPP) carry?
The net debt of SPAR Group Ltd is 13.5B ZAC (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026