The SPAR Group (SPP) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · ZA · Market cap 9.1B ZAC
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −2.7% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 131% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R61.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (R61.14 to R148.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R44.00 – R195.33 · fair‑value band R61.14 – R148.69 · the R45.44 price screens below the R104.92 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
The SPAR Group (SPP) currently trades at R45.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R104.92, implying the stock looks roughly 130.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, The SPAR Group generated revenue of 131B ZAR at a net margin of -3.7%. Revenue declined 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. Net debt stands at 13.5B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R61.14 (bear case) to R148.69 (bull case); at R45.44, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -29% fair-value upside, at 131%, SPP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (R256.02) versus Asset-Based (R18.48). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The SPAR Group Ltd engages in the wholesale and distribution of goods and services to grocery stores and other group retail outlets in South Africa and internationally.
Full company description
The SPAR Group Ltd engages in the wholesale and distribution of goods and services to grocery stores and other group retail outlets in South Africa and internationally. The company offers fresh produce, in-store bakery, butchery, deli, ready-to-eat meals, home-meal replacements, groceries, general merchandise, baked foods, liquor products, building and hardware products, coffee, dispensary and health-related products, confectionery, health and beauty, frozen foods, catering products, wines, and non-food items. The SPAR Group Ltd operates stores under the SUPERSPAR, SPAR, KWIKSPAR, SPAR EXPRESS, PHARMACY at SPAR, TOPS at SPAR, and SAVEMOR brands. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Pinetown, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The SPAR Group reported revenue of R131B in FY2025 versus R128B in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was −R4.8B in FY2025.
of which total revenue +8.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch SPP: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Food Distribution · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sysco Corporation SYY | $84.69 | $59.83 | -29% |
| US Foods Holding USFD | $110.94 | $53.53 | -52% |
| Performance Food Group PFGC | $113.96 | $37.94 | -67% |
| Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT | €17.68 | €21.59 | +22% |
| CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT | 14.80 THB | 17.42 THB | +18% |
| The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF | $111.07 | $37.27 | -66% |
| Olam Group VC2 | 1.34 SGD | 2.12 SGD | +58% |
| United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI | $47.27 | $6.00 | -87% |
| The Andersons, Inc ANDE | $65.61 | $47.78 | -27% |
| Zhejiang Dongri Limited 600113 | ¥31.47 | ¥6.75 | -79% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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